Xpo, Inc.

Consumer Discretionary
Transportation Services
www.xpo.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $17.59B
PE 48
Debt $3.34B
Cash $378.00M
EV $20.55B
FCF -$792.00M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$370.00M
EBIT	$630.00M
ROE	23%
ROA	8%
FCF	-$792.00M
Equity	$1.64B
Growth Stability	22%
PE	47.54
PEG	16.91
PB	10.72
P/FCF	-22.21
P/S	2.17
Price/Cash	0.02
Debt/Equity	2.04
Debt/FCF	-4.22
Net Margins	5%
Op. Margins	8%
Earnings CAGR	4%
Sales Growth YoY	4%
Sales Growth QoQ	-1%
Sales CAGR	-8%
FCF CAGR	3%
Equity CAGR	-10%
Earnings Stability	0.01
Earnings Growth YoY	13%
Earnings Growth QoQ	-37%

Earnings CAGR 5Y	3%
Sales CAGR 5Y	-22%
FCF CAGR 5Y	-8%
Equity CAGR 5Y	-18%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	-19%
Sales CAGR 3Y	-19%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-12%
Equity CAGR 3Y	1%
Market Cap	$17.59B
Revenue	$8.09B
Assets	$7.92B
Total Debt	$3.34B
Cash	$378.00M
Shares Outstanding	116M
EV	20.55B
Earnings Score	6%
Moat Score	87%
Safety Score	32%
Final Score	42%
Working Capital	91M
Current Ratio	1.06
Shares Growth 3y	1%
Equity Growth QoQ	9%
Equity Growth YoY	37%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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XPO Logistics is a diversified trucking and logistics company, built mostly via acquisition (until 2016). Following the third-quarter 2021 spinoff of its global contract logistics division (outsourced warehousing and supply-chain services), XPO's portfolio reflects its transportation operations--asset-based less-than-truckload shipping (33% of gross revenue), asset-light freight brokerage including intermodal and truck brokerage (29%), heavy goods last mile delivery (8%), and its European truckload and LTL operations (24%). The remainder of revenue stems from managed transportation and global forwarding services.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Xpo, Inc. (XPO) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Xpo, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Xpo, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 4%

Stability 1%

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Xpo, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Xpo, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= -$9.7B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	-$792M	-$815M	-$839M	-$863M	-$888M	-$914M	-$940M	-$967M	-$995M	-$1B	-$1.1B	-$11B
DCF		-$741M	-$693M	-$648M	-$606M	-$567M	-$531M	-$496M	-$464M	-$434M	-$406M	-$4.1B
Value	-$9.7B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	-5%	-3%	0%	2%	2%	2%	0%	3%	9%	2%	5%
ROA	-	-0%	4%	5%	6%	6%	3%	7%	6%	6%	8%
ROE	-	-8%	2%	8%	10%	13%	3%	30%	66%	15%	23%

Bad Net Margins (5.07%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	-36.26	36.48	16.24	7.75	27.27	14.96	10.24	8.16	-3.97	-4.22
Debt over Equity	0.37	1.87	1.71	1.19	1.08	1.79	1.88	3.09	2.44	2.63	2.04
Growth Stability	-	-	-	-	100%	100%	22%	100%	100%	52%	22%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (-4.22)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Bad Debt/Equity ratio (2.04)

The company is overleveraged and has a bad balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (22%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	223%	92%	5%	12%	-4%	-2%	-21%	-40%	0%	-22%
Earnings YoY growth	-	129%	-126%	395%	25%	-3%	-79%	325%	98%	-72%	3%
Equity YoY growth	-	85%	-1%	32%	-1%	-27%	-2%	-60%	-11%	25%	-18%
FCF YoY growth	-	140%	-190%	108%	87%	-66%	89%	-4%	-12%	-377%	-8%