Valvoline Inc

Industrials
Major Chemicals
www.valvoline.com

Earnings Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $4.83B
PE 23
Debt $1.12B
Cash $68.70M
EV $5.89B
FCF $58.50M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$211.50M
EBIT	$367.20M
ROE	114%
ROA	15%
FCF	$58.50M
Equity	$185.60M
Growth Stability	28%
PE	22.84
PEG	1.43
PB	26.03
P/FCF	82.58
P/S	2.98
Price/Cash	0.01
Debt/Equity	6.05
Debt/FCF	19.2
Net Margins	13%
Gross Margins	38%
Op. Margins	23%
Earnings CAGR	22%
Sales Growth YoY	12%
Sales Growth QoQ	3%
Sales CAGR	5%
FCF CAGR	-10%
Equity CAGR	-3%
Earnings Stability	0.17
Earnings Growth YoY	89%
Earnings Growth QoQ	101%

Earnings CAGR 5Y	16%
Sales CAGR 5Y	-18%
FCF CAGR 5Y	-20%
Equity CAGR 5Y	7%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	-19%
Sales CAGR 3Y	-19%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-32%
Equity CAGR 3Y	-29%
Market Cap	$4.83B
Revenue	$1.62B
Dividend Yield	0%
Payout Ratio	0%
Assets	$2.44B
Total Debt	$1.12B
Cash	$68.70M
Shares Outstanding	128.18M
EV	5.89B
Earnings Score	10%
Safety Score	30%
Working Capital	-98.5M
Current Ratio	0.72
Gross Profit	$618.80M
Shares Growth 3y	-15%
Equity Growth QoQ	74%
Equity Growth YoY	-9%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Valvoline produces, markets, and sells automotive maintenance products, particularly lubricants, to retail outlets and installer customers worldwide. The company caters to do-it-yourself customers by selling products to auto-parts stores and leading mass-merchandisers via direct sales and distributors. Valvoline targets the do-it-for-me segment by selling products to car dealers, general repair shops, and third-party quick-lube chains. Valvoline also operates and franchises quick-lube oil change centers, in addition to selling products and providing Valvoline-branded signage to smaller-scale independent operators. Product sales accounted for nearly 65% of fiscal 2020 sales, with the balance generated by its retail services (quick-lube) unit.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Valvoline Inc (VVV) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-Q Dec 31
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-Q Dec 31
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Valvoline Inc compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Valvoline Inc compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 22%

Stability 17%

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Valvoline Inc Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Valvoline Inc.

Years

Calculation mode

= $300M

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$59M	$52M	$47M	$42M	$38M	$34M	$30M	$27M	$24M	$22M	$20M	$196M
DCF		$48M	$39M	$32M	$26M	$21M	$17M	$14M	$11M	$9.3M	$7.6M	$76M
Value	$300M

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	09/2015	09/2016	03/2017	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	TTM
Net Margins	10%	14%	-	15%	7%	9%	13%	14%	34%	98%	13%	13%
ROA	-	24%	-	28%	21%	19%	18%	20%	6%	9%	15%	15%
ROE	-	-83%	-	-260%	-46%	-81%	-417%	311%	138%	699%	114%	114%

Good Net Margins (13.06%)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	09/2015	09/2016	03/2017	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	3.15	-	-6.12	6	6.29	8.96	6.63	12.24	9.4	19.2	19.2
Debt over Equity	-	-2.34	-	-10.36	-3.81	-5.29	-26.07	12.78	6.07	7.98	6.05	6.05
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	58%	89%	100%	100%	100%	100%	28%	28%

Bad Debt/FCF ratio (19.2)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Bad Debt/Equity ratio (6.05)

The company is overleveraged and has a bad balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (28%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	09/2015	09/2016	03/2017	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	-2%	-	-	10%	5%	-2%	27%	-59%	17%	12%	-18%
Earnings YoY growth	-	39%	-	-	-45%	25%	52%	32%	1%	235%	-85%	16%
Equity YoY growth	-	-153%	-	-	206%	-28%	-71%	-278%	127%	-34%	-9%	7%
FCF YoY growth	-	-14%	-	-	-215%	-4%	2%	18%	-41%	13%	-66%	-20%