Vistra Corp.

Utilities
Electric Utilities: Central
www.vistracorp.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $54.51B
PE 29
Debt $15.66B
Cash $940.00M
EV $69.22B
FCF $2.03B

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$1.85B
EBIT	$3.58B
ROE	34%
ROA	9%
FCF	$2.03B
Equity	$5.46B
Growth Stability	-2K%
PE	29.43
PEG	6.42
PB	9.99
P/FCF	26.86
P/S	3.35
Price/Cash	0.02
Debt/Equity	2.87
Debt/FCF	7.72
Net Margins	16%
Op. Margins	22%
Earnings CAGR	2%
Sales Growth YoY	54%
Sales Growth QoQ	64%
Sales CAGR	13%
FCF CAGR	5%
Equity CAGR	-3%
Earnings Stability	-0.19
Earnings Growth YoY	296%
Earnings Growth QoQ	479%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	5%

Sales CAGR 5Y	7%
FCF CAGR 5Y	3%
Equity CAGR 5Y	-7%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	10%
Sales CAGR 3Y	10%
FCF CAGR 3Y	30%
Equity CAGR 3Y	-3%
Market Cap	$54.51B
Revenue	$16.27B
Dividend Yield	1%
Payout Ratio	17%
Assets	$37.88B
Total Debt	$15.66B
Cash	$940.00M
Shares Outstanding	340.72M
EV	69.22B
Earnings Score	6%
Moat Score	94%
Safety Score	40%
Final Score	47%
Working Capital	871M
Current Ratio	1.11
Shares Growth 3y	-11%
Equity Growth QoQ	-25%
Equity Growth YoY	-1%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Vistra Energy emerged from the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy as a stand-alone entity in 2016. Vistra is one of the largest power producers and retail energy providers in the U.S. It owns and operates 38 gigawatts of nuclear, coal, and natural gas generation in its wholesale generation segment after acquiring Dynegy in 2018. Its retail electricity segment serves 4.3 million customers in 20 states. Vistra's retail business serves almost one third of all Texas electricity consumers.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Vistra Corp. (VST) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Vistra Corp. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Vistra Corp. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 2%

Stability -19%

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Vistra Corp. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Vistra Corp..

Years

Calculation mode

= $28B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$2B	$2.1B	$2.2B	$2.3B	$2.4B	$2.5B	$2.7B	$2.8B	$2.9B	$3B	$3.2B	$32B
DCF		$1.9B	$1.8B	$1.7B	$1.7B	$1.6B	$1.5B	$1.4B	$1.4B	$1.3B	$1.2B	$12B
Value	$28B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	-5%	-1%	8%	5%	-11%	-10%	9%	16%
ROA	3%	2%	7%	6%	-5%	-4%	8%	9%
ROE	-4%	-1%	12%	7%	-16%	-28%	25%	34%

Good Net Margins (15.73%)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	3.73	10.43	4.84	4.54	-8.87	-15.47	4.45	7.72
Debt over Equity	0.7	1.45	1.35	1.13	1.32	2.57	3.16	2.87
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	-260%	-2K%	-	-2K%

Bad Debt/FCF ratio (7.72)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Bad Debt/Equity ratio (2.87)

The company is overleveraged and has a bad balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (-2K%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	68%	29%	-3%	6%	14%	8%	7%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-78%	-2K%	-33%	-308%	6%	-198%	5%
Equity YoY growth	-	24%	1%	5%	-1%	-41%	8%	-7%
FCF YoY growth	-	-9%	103%	-6%	-160%	-34%	-563%	3%