Upstart Holdings, Inc.

Finance
Finance: Consumer Services
www.upstart.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $5.97B
PE -35
Debt $887.37M
Cash $655.77M
EV $6.20B
FCF $152.47M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	-$168.22M
EBIT	-$196.38M
ROE	-28%
ROA	-11%
FCF	$152.47M
Equity	$595.54M
Growth Stability	-3K%
PE	-35.49
PEG	-6.8K
PB	10.03
P/FCF	39.16
P/S	10.7
Price/Cash	0.11
Debt/Equity	1.49
Debt/FCF	5.82
Net Margins	-30%
Op. Margins	-35%
Earnings CAGR	0%
Sales Growth YoY	20%
Sales Growth QoQ	27%
Sales CAGR	7%
FCF CAGR	2%
Equity CAGR	7%
Earnings Stability	-0.72

Earnings Growth YoY	-83%
Earnings Growth QoQ	-88%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	0%
Sales CAGR 5Y	7%
FCF CAGR 5Y	2%
Equity CAGR 5Y	7%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	-25%
Sales CAGR 3Y	-25%
Equity CAGR 3Y	-12%
Market Cap	$5.97B
Revenue	$557.88M
Assets	$1.81B
Total Debt	$887.37M
Cash	$655.77M
Shares Outstanding	88.53M
EV	6.2B
Earnings Score	6%
Moat Score	3%
Safety Score	49%
Final Score	19%
Shares Growth 3y	3%
Equity Growth QoQ	0%
Equity Growth YoY	-7%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Upstart Holdings Inc provides credit services. The company provides a proprietary, cloud-based, artificial intelligence lending platform. The platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to the network of Upstart AI-enabled bank partners. The revenue of the company is primarily comprised of fees paid by banks.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Upstart Holdings, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Upstart Holdings, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 0%

Stability -72%

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Upstart Holdings, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Upstart Holdings, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= $1.7B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$152M	$156M	$159M	$162M	$165M	$168M	$172M	$175M	$179M	$182M	$186M	$1.9B
DCF		$141M	$131M	$122M	$113M	$105M	$97M	$90M	$83M	$77M	$72M	$717M
Value	$1.7B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	-3%	0%	16%	-13%	-47%	-30%
ROA	-	2%	8%	-5%	-10%	-11%
ROE	-	0%	17%	-16%	-38%	-28%

Bad Net Margins (-30.13%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	4.37	4.35	-1.44	-6.42	5.82
Debt over Equity	-	0.21	0.86	1.47	1.64	1.49
Growth Stability	-	-	-	-250%	-3K%	-3K%

Bad Debt/FCF ratio (5.82)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Neutral Debt/Equity ratio (1.49)

The company has a balance between equity and debt that is not too good nor too bad.

Bad Graham’s Stability (-3K%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	42%	264%	-1%	-39%	7%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-100%	-	-180%	121%	0%
Equity YoY growth	-	-587%	169%	-17%	-6%	7%
FCF YoY growth	-	-48%	1K%	-527%	-76%	2%