Petroleum Refining
Phillips 66 operates as an energy manufacturing and logistics company in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties (M&S). The Midstream segment transports crude oil and other feedstocks; delivers refined petroleum products to market; provides terminaling and storage services for crude oil and refined petroleum products; transports, stores, fractionates, exports, and markets natural gas liquids; provides other fee-based processing services; and gathers, processes, transports, and markets natural gas. The Chemicals segment produces and markets ethylene and other olefin products; aromatics and styrenics products, such as benzene, cyclohexane, styrene, and polystyrene; and various specialty chemical products, including organosulfur chemicals, solvents, catalysts, and chemicals used in drilling and mining. The Refining segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products, such as gasolines, distillates, aviation, and renewable. The M&S segment purchases for resale and markets refined petroleum products, including gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels. This segment also manufactures and markets specialty products, such as base oils and lubricants. The company was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 4.3% | 1.8% | 5% | 5% | 2.9% | -6.2% | 1.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% |
ROA | 12% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 14% | 7.1% | -9.1% | - | - | - | - |
ROE | 18% | 6.5% | 19% | 21% | 11% | -19% | 6% | 32% | 22% | 19% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +2.34%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.48%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +3.92%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -11.39%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +12.31%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +2.72%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Debt Equity | 0.37 | 0.45 | 0.37 | 0.41 | 0.43 | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.61 | 0.65 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 75% | -87% | 84% | 100% | 100% | -87% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.87.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 8.3% | 5.7% | 32% | -13% | 6% |
Net Income | 24% | 4.6% | - | -36% | 41% |
Stockholders Equity | 4.2% | 3.1% | 14% | -7.2% | 1% |
FCF | - | - | - | - | - |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +5.75%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +5.98%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.62%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +41.05%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.11%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.04%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -.