Progress Software Corp

PRGS

Services-Prepackaged Software

Mkt Cap

$2.188B

PE

31.63

Debt

$355.3M

Cash

$133.2M

EV

$2.41B

FCF

$192.2M

Market Cap

$2.188B

P/E Ratio

31.63

Debt

$355.3M

Cash

$133.2M

EV

$2.41B

FCF

$192.2M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-11-29","value":49458000},{"time":"2015-11-29","value":-8801000},{"time":"2016-11-29","value":-55726000},{"time":"2017-11-29","value":37417000},{"time":"2018-11-29","value":63491000},{"time":"2019-11-29","value":26400000},{"time":"2020-11-29","value":79722000},{"time":"2021-11-29","value":78420000},{"time":"2022-11-29","value":95069000},{"time":"2023-11-29","value":70197000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-11-29","value":332533000},{"time":"2015-11-29","value":377554000},{"time":"2016-11-29","value":405341000},{"time":"2017-11-29","value":397572000},{"time":"2018-11-29","value":397165000},{"time":"2019-11-29","value":413298000},{"time":"2020-11-29","value":442150000},{"time":"2021-11-29","value":531313000},{"time":"2022-11-29","value":602013000},{"time":"2023-11-29","value":694439000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-11-29","value":0.1487311033792135},{"time":"2015-11-29","value":-0.02331057279223634},{"time":"2016-11-29","value":-0.13747930754599214},{"time":"2017-11-29","value":0.09411377058746592},{"time":"2018-11-29","value":0.15986051137436583},{"time":"2019-11-29","value":0.06387642814627702},{"time":"2020-11-29","value":0.18030532624674883},{"time":"2021-11-29","value":0.14759661442501879},{"time":"2022-11-29","value":0.15791851670977206},{"time":"2023-11-29","value":0.10108447250226442}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-11-29","value":703061000},{"time":"2015-11-29","value":877123000},{"time":"2016-11-29","value":754827000},{"time":"2017-11-29","value":718718000},{"time":"2018-11-29","value":640609000},{"time":"2019-11-29","value":881271000},{"time":"2020-11-29","value":1041782000},{"time":"2021-11-29","value":1363537000},{"time":"2022-11-29","value":1411479000},{"time":"2023-11-29","value":1602783000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-11-29","value":543245000},{"time":"2015-11-29","value":522464000},{"time":"2016-11-29","value":406629000},{"time":"2017-11-29","value":376084000},{"time":"2018-11-29","value":310082000},{"time":"2019-11-29","value":330282000},{"time":"2020-11-29","value":346013000},{"time":"2021-11-29","value":412489000},{"time":"2022-11-29","value":398504000},{"time":"2023-11-29","value":459715000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-11-29","value":0.09104179513847344},{"time":"2015-11-29","value":-0.016845179763581797},{"time":"2016-11-29","value":-0.13704384094592367},{"time":"2017-11-29","value":0.09949107114368066},{"time":"2018-11-29","value":0.2047555162827897},{"time":"2019-11-29","value":0.0799316947335913},{"time":"2020-11-29","value":0.23040174791120566},{"time":"2021-11-29","value":0.19011416062004077},{"time":"2022-11-29","value":0.23856473209804668},{"time":"2023-11-29","value":0.15269677952644573}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-11-29","value":0.11484067527568731},{"time":"2015-11-29","value":0.018403348219120923},{"time":"2016-11-29","value":-0.03935868748733153},{"time":"2017-11-29","value":0.09824993947556622},{"time":"2018-11-29","value":0.13424413331689064},{"time":"2019-11-29","value":0.045484306189583},{"time":"2020-11-29","value":0.10340743072926965},{"time":"2021-11-29","value":0.08514767109363369},{"time":"2022-11-29","value":0.09361173634180885},{"time":"2023-11-29","value":0.06895693303460294}]}

Progress Software Corporation develops, deploys, and manages business applications. The company offers OpenEdge, an application development platform for running business-critical applications; Chef, a DevOps/DevSecOps automation software; Developer Tools that consists of software development tooling collection including .NET and JavaScript UI components for web, desktop and mobile applications, reporting and report management tools, and automated testing and mocking tools; Kemp LoadMaster, a flexible application delivery and security product offering cloud-native, and virtual and hardware load balancers; and Sitefinity, a digital experience platform foundation delivering intelligent and ROI-driving tools for marketers. It also provides MOVEit, a managed file transfer software for managing and controlling the movement of sensitive files and securing them both at-rest and in-transit, DataDirect, a secure data connectivity tools for Relational, NoSQL, Big Data and SaaS data sources; WhatsUp Gold, a network infrastructure monitoring software providing complete visibility of all network devices, servers, virtual machines, and cloud and wireless environments to find and fix network problems; Flowmon, a network security and visibility product with automated response across hybrid cloud ecosystems; and Corticon, a decision automation platform to transform user experiences by streamlining and automating complex business rules. Further, the company offers project management, implementation, custom development, programming, and other services, as well as web-enable applications; and training services. It sells its products to end users, independent software vendors, original equipment manufacturers, and system integrators. It has operations in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.

Sector

10-Q
8/31/23
10-Q
5/31/23
10-Q
2/28/23
10-K
11/30/22
10-Q
8/31/22
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5/31/22
10-Q
2/28/22
10-K
11/30/21
10-Q
8/31/21
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5/31/21
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2/28/21
10-K
11/30/20
10-Q
8/31/20
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5/31/20
10-Q
2/29/20
10-K
11/30/19
10-Q
8/31/19
10-Q
5/31/19
10-Q
2/28/19
10-K
11/30/18
10-Q
8/31/18
10-Q
5/31/18
10-Q
2/28/18

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Progress Software Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$192.2M	$211.3M	$231.1M	$251.6M	$272.5M	$293.6M	$314.8M	$335.7M	$356.2M	$375.9M	$394.7M	$3.947B
DCF		$183.7M	$174.8M	$165.4M	$155.8M	$146M	$136.1M	$126.2M	$116.4M	$106.9M	$97.57M	$975.7M
Value	$2.385B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 21%

Earnings Stability 34%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	11-2015	11-2016	11-2017	11-2018	11-2019	11-2020	11-2021	11-2022	11-2023	TTM
Net Margin	-2.3%	-14%	9.4%	16%	6.4%	18%	15%	16%	10%	9.7%
ROA	1.8%	-3.9%	9.8%	13%	4.5%	10%	8.5%	9.4%	6.9%	7.1%
ROE	-1.7%	-14%	9.9%	20%	8%	23%	19%	24%	15%	15%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +13.51%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.13%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +8.85%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.57%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +18.27%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.5%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	11-2015	11-2016	11-2017	11-2018	11-2019	11-2020	11-2021	11-2022	11-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	1.58	1.55	1.27	1.08	2.47	2.91	3.75	3.41	4.42	1.85
Debt Equity	0.29	0.37	0.34	0.40	0.93	1.16	1.58	1.59	1.62	0.77
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	83%	83%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.85.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.58.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.83.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	11-2016	11-2018	11-2020	11-2022	Trend
Revenue	8%	12%	16%	15%	1.3%
Net Income	-	2%	-4.2%	-26%	-13%
Stockholders Equity	1.8%	8.2%	9.9%	15%	3.5%
FCF	8.2%	8.1%	6.8%	-9.5%	0.56%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +11.82%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.27%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +2.03%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -12.68%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.19%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.48%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.09%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.56%.