Post Holdings, Inc.

Consumer Staples
Packaged Foods
www.postholdings.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $7.04B
PE 19
Debt $6.85B
Cash $790.90M
EV $13.09B
FCF $502.20M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$366.70M
EBIT	$793.50M
ROE	9%
ROA	6%
FCF	$502.20M
Equity	$4.10B
Growth Stability	0%
PE	19.19
PEG	0.24
PB	1.72
P/FCF	14.01
P/S	0.89
Price/Cash	0.11
Debt/Equity	1.67
Debt/FCF	13.63
Net Margins	5%
Gross Margins	29%
Op. Margins	10%
Earnings CAGR	14%
Sales Growth YoY	3%
Sales Growth QoQ	3%
Sales CAGR	4%
FCF CAGR	1%
Equity CAGR	3%
Earnings Stability	0.08
Earnings Growth YoY	24%
Earnings Growth QoQ	-18%

Earnings CAGR 5Y	81%
Sales CAGR 5Y	7%
FCF CAGR 5Y	4%
Equity CAGR 5Y	8%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	12%
Sales CAGR 3Y	12%
FCF CAGR 3Y	44%
Equity CAGR 3Y	13%
Market Cap	$7.04B
Revenue	$7.92B
Assets	$12.85B
Total Debt	$6.85B
Cash	$790.90M
Shares Outstanding	59.9M
EV	13.09B
Earnings Score	7%
Moat Score	80%
Safety Score	41%
Final Score	43%
Working Capital	1.29B
Current Ratio	2.36
Gross Profit	$2.30B
Shares Growth 3y	-1%
Equity Growth QoQ	4%
Equity Growth YoY	6%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Post Holdings operates in North America and Europe. For fiscal 2021 (restated for the separation of BellRing Brands), 47% of the company's revenue came from cereal, with brands such as Honeycomb, Grape-Nuts, Pebbles, Honey Bunches of Oats, Malt-O-Meal, and Weetabix. Refrigerated food made up 52% of sales and services the retail (20% of company sales) and food-service channels (32%), providing value-added egg and potato products, prepared side dishes, cheese, and sausage under brands Bob Evans and Simply Potatoes. Post also holds a 60% stake in 8th Avenue, a private brands entity and a 14% stake in BellRing Brands, with protein-based products under the Premier Protein and Dymatize brands. Post launched a special purpose acquisition corp in 2021, but has not yet executed a transaction.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-Q Dec 31
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-Q Dec 31
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Post Holdings, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Post Holdings, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 14%

Stability 8%

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Post Holdings, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Post Holdings, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= $5.4B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$502M	$508M	$513M	$519M	$525M	$531M	$536M	$542M	$548M	$554M	$560M	$5.6B
DCF		$462M	$424M	$390M	$358M	$329M	$303M	$278M	$256M	$235M	$216M	$2.2B
Value	$5.4B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	09/2015	09/2016	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	TTM
Net Margins	-3%	-1%	1%	7%	2%	0%	3%	13%	4%	5%	5%
ROA	-	6%	4%	5%	7%	6%	6%	11%	6%	6%	6%
ROE	-	-1%	1%	15%	4%	0%	6%	23%	8%	9%	9%

Bad Net Margins (4.63%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	09/2015	09/2016	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	12.11	36.85	14.8	17.22	18.2	18.13	46.32	13.53	13.63	13.63
Debt over Equity	1.52	1.53	2.59	2.39	2.43	2.49	2.61	1.83	1.57	1.67	1.67
Growth Stability	-	-	-	-	79%	0%	86%	100%	98%	90%	0%

Bad Debt/FCF ratio (13.63)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Bad Debt/Equity ratio (1.67)

The company is overleveraged and has a bad balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (0%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	09/2015	09/2016	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	8%	4%	20%	-9%	0%	9%	-6%	19%	13%	7%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-79%	-223%	1K%	-73%	-99%	21K%	354%	-60%	22%	81%
Equity YoY growth	-	1%	-7%	10%	-4%	-3%	-4%	19%	18%	6%	8%
FCF YoY growth	-	11%	-48%	152%	-16%	-6%	1%	-67%	247%	12%	4%