Philip Morris International Inc.

PM

Cigarettes

Mkt Cap

$155.3B

PE

19.55

Debt

$55.53B

Cash

$4.099B

EV

$206.7B

FCF

$8.941B

Market Cap

$155.3B

P/E Ratio

19.55

Debt

$55.53B

Cash

$4.099B

EV

$206.7B

FCF

$8.941B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":7493000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":6873000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":6967000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":6035000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":7911000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":7168000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":8036000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":9083000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":9024000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":7791000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":80106000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":73908000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":74953000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":78098000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":79823000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":77921000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":76047000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":82223000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":80669000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":35174000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.09353856140613687},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.09299399253125508},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.09295158299200833},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.07727470613844145},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.09910677373689288},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.09199060587004787},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.10567149262955804},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.11046787395254369},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.11186453284409129},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.22149883436629328}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":35187000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":33956000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":36851000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":42968000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":39801000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":42875000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":44815000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":41290000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":61681000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":65304000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-11203000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-11476000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-10900000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":-10230000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":-10739000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-9599000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-10631000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-8208000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-6311000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-9446000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-0.6688387039185932},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.5989020564656675},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.6391743119266055},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":-0.5899315738025416},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":-0.7366607691591396},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.7467444525471403},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.755902549148716},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-1.1066033138401559},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-1.4298843289494534},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.8247935634130849}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.33591951573024126},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.316497820709153},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.2983094081571735},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.2719465648854962},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.28959071380116075},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.24881632653061225},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.26064933615976793},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.314240736255752},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.20106677907297224},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.18338846012495405}]}

Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company working to delivers a smoke-free future and evolving portfolio for the long-term to include products outside of the tobacco and nicotine sector. The company's product portfolio primarily consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, vapor, and oral nicotine products that are sold in markets outside the United States. The company offers its smoke-free products under the HBLENDS, EETS, HEETS Creations, HEETS Dimensions, HEETS Marlboro, HEETS FROM MARLBORO, Marlboro Dimensions, Marlboro HeatSticks, Parliament HeatSticks, SENTIA, and TEREA brands, as well as the KT&G-licensed brands, Fiit, and Miix. It also sells its products under the Marlboro, Parliament, Bond Street, Chesterfield, L&M, Lark, and Philip Morris brands. In addition, the company owns various cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe and Sampoerna A in Indonesia; and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines. The company sells its smoke-free products in 73 markets. Philip Morris International Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.

Sector

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10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Philip Morris International Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$8.941B	$9.324B	$9.723B	$10.14B	$10.57B	$11.03B	$11.5B	$11.99B	$12.5B	$13.04B	$13.6B	$136B
DCF		$8.108B	$7.352B	$6.667B	$6.046B	$5.482B	$4.971B	$4.508B	$4.088B	$3.707B	$3.361B	$33.61B
Value	$87.9B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 3.4%

Earnings Stability 55%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	9.3%	9.3%	7.7%	9.9%	9.2%	11%	11%	11%	22%	32%
ROA	32%	30%	27%	29%	25%	26%	31%	20%	18%	19%
ROE	-60%	-64%	-59%	-74%	-75%	-76%	-110%	-140%	-82%	-93%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +12.34%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.93%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +24.96%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -1.77%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is -93.34%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -8.12%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	4.39	4.53	4.97	4.39	3.79	3.77	2.73	4.47	6.47	6.21
Debt Equity	-2.64	-2.87	-3.58	-3.29	-3.65	-3.26	-3.73	-6.90	-5.40	-6.49
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	85%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	89%	85%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 6.21.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.33.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.85.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	-10%	-15%	-23%	-56%	-3.4%
Net Income	1.6%	-0.31%	-1%	-14%	0.1%
Stockholders Equity	-	-	-	-	-
FCF	1.9%	-0.4%	-5.1%	-19%	-1.9%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is -15.12%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -3.36%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -0.31%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.1%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -2.53%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -0.4%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.9%.