Douglas Dynamics, Inc

PLOW

Construction Machinery & Equip

Mkt Cap

$579.6M

PE

20.74

Debt

$55M

Cash

$1.974M

EV

$632.6M

FCF

$38.66M

Market Cap

$579.6M

P/E Ratio

20.74

Debt

$55M

Cash

$1.974M

EV

$632.6M

FCF

$38.66M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":39352000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":43572000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":39009000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":55324000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":43905000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":49166000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-86553000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":30691000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":37868000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":23195000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":303511000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":400408000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":416268000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":474927000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":524067000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":571710000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":480154000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":541453000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":616068000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":568178000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.1296559268033119},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.1088190046152924},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.09371126293637752},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.11648948154137373},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.08377745593597766},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.08599814591313779},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.18026091628935717},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.05668266682426729},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.06146724062928118},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.04082347433374752}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":480443000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":505503000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":671899000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":685176000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":676193000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":705695000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":579202000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":572476000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":596891000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":593418000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":173289000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":200496000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":220463000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":256678000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":282756000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":313163000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":200204000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":214610000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":237102000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":231565000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.22708885157165198},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.21732104381134787},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.1769412554487601},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.21553853466210582},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.15527521962398677},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.1569981128038753},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.43232402948992027},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.14300824751875496},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.15971185397002133},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.10016626001338717}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.1503133566312757},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.15301788515597337},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.10286962772678632},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.10229634429693976},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.1086376226905632},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.12267764402468488},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.12973021501997575},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.08932252181750851},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.09843170696157255},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.07567852677202241}]}

Douglas Dynamics, Inc. operates as a manufacturer and upfitter of commercial work truck attachments and equipment in North America. It operates through two segments, Work Truck Attachments and Work Truck Solutions. The Work Truck Attachments segment manufactures and sells snow and ice control attachments, including snowplows, and sand and salt spreaders for light trucks and heavy duty trucks, as well as various related parts and accessories. The Work Truck Solutions segment primarily manufactures municipal snow and ice control products; provides truck and vehicle upfits where it attaches component pieces of equipment, truck bodies, racking, and storage solutions to a vehicle chassis for use by end users for work related purposes; and manufactures storage solutions for trucks and vans, and cable pulling equipment for trucks. This segment also offers up-fit and storage solutions. It also provides customized turnkey solutions to governmental agencies, such as Departments of Transportation and municipalities. The company sells its products under the BLIZZARD, FISHER, SNOWEX, WESTERN, TURFEX, SWEEPEX, HENDERSON, BRINEXTREME, and DEJANA brands. It distributes its products primarily to professional snowplowers who are contracted to remove snow and ice from commercial and residential areas. The company was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Sector

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3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Douglas Dynamics, Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$38.66M	$34.53M	$30.84M	$27.55M	$24.61M	$21.98M	$19.63M	$17.53M	$15.66M	$13.99M	$12.49M	$124.9M
DCF		$30.03M	$23.32M	$18.11M	$14.07M	$10.93M	$8.487M	$6.592M	$5.12M	$3.976M	$3.088M	$30.88M
Value	$154.6M

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth -5%

Earnings Stability 20%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	11%	9.4%	12%	8.4%	8.6%	-18%	5.7%	6.1%	4.1%	4.8%
ROA	15%	10%	10%	11%	12%	-13%	8.9%	9.8%	7.6%	9.1%
ROE	22%	18%	22%	16%	16%	-43%	14%	16%	10%	13%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +2.47%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.15%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +6.08%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.05%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +4.71%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.88%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	7.99	10.32	5.23	5.69	3.71	6.16	0.23	7.92	121.36	1.42
Debt Equity	1.85	2.81	1.20	0.98	0.78	1.19	0.05	0.92	1.02	0.25
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	96%	100%	-170%	100%	-	-	-170%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.42.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 16.72.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -1.75.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	4.5%	1.6%	5.8%	-7.8%	-2.6%
Net Income	-7.2%	-12%	-	-39%	-2.8%
Stockholders Equity	0.7%	-3.9%	5%	-2.3%	-2.3%
FCF	-39%	-47%	-63%	-93%	-9%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +1.63%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -2.64%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -11.98%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -2.82%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -3.92%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -2.25%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -47.42%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -9.01%.