Packaging Corp Of America

Consumer Discretionary
Containers/Packaging
www.packagingcorp.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $21.63B
PE 28
Debt $2.49B
Cash $676.60M
EV $23.45B
FCF $591.60M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$767.70M
EBIT	$1.06B
ROE	18%
ROA	12%
FCF	$591.60M
Equity	$4.26B
Growth Stability	66%
PE	28.18
PEG	2.85
PB	5.07
P/FCF	36.57
P/S	2.65
Price/Cash	0.03
Debt/Equity	0.58
Debt/FCF	4.21
Net Margins	9%
Gross Margins	21%
Op. Margins	13%
Earnings CAGR	10%
Sales Growth YoY	13%
Sales Growth QoQ	5%
Sales CAGR	7%
FCF CAGR	4%
Equity CAGR	12%
Earnings Stability	0.28
Earnings Growth YoY	30%
Earnings Growth QoQ	20%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	10%

Sales CAGR 5Y	5%
FCF CAGR 5Y	2%
Equity CAGR 5Y	7%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	-1%
Sales CAGR 3Y	-1%
FCF CAGR 3Y	15%
Equity CAGR 3Y	4%
Market Cap	$21.63B
Revenue	$8.18B
Dividend Yield	2%
Payout Ratio	59%
Assets	$8.75B
Total Debt	$2.49B
Cash	$676.60M
Shares Outstanding	89.08M
EV	23.45B
Earnings Score	14%
Moat Score	93%
Safety Score	82%
Final Score	63%
Working Capital	2.14B
Current Ratio	2.95
Gross Profit	$1.72B
Shares Growth 3y	-2%
Equity Growth QoQ	3%
Equity Growth YoY	10%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Packaging Corp of America is the fourth- largest containerboard and corrugated packaging manufacturer in the United States. It produces roughly 4 million tons of containerboard annually. The company's share of the domestic containerboard market is about 10%. It differentiates itself from larger competitors by focusing on smaller customers and operating with a high degree of flexibility. Its three reportable segments: Packaging, Paper and Corporate and Other.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Packaging Corp Of America (PKG) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Packaging Corp Of America compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Packaging Corp Of America compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 10%

Stability 28%

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Packaging Corp Of America Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Packaging Corp Of America.

Years

Calculation mode

= $7.6B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$592M	$614M	$637M	$660M	$685M	$711M	$737M	$765M	$793M	$823M	$854M	$8.5B
DCF		$558M	$526M	$496M	$468M	$441M	$416M	$392M	$370M	$349M	$329M	$3.3B
Value	$7.6B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	07/2017	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	7%	8%	8%	-	10%	10%	10%	7%	11%	12%	10%	9%
ROA	-	14%	14%	-	15%	16%	15%	10%	16%	18%	12%	12%
ROE	-	26%	25%	-	30%	27%	23%	14%	23%	28%	19%	18%

Net Margins (9.3%)

Net Margins are at a level that is not too high nor too low. They are not a competitive advantage but they are not a competitive disadvantage either.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	07/2017	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	5.17	5.09	-	5.45	3.97	3.09	4.08	5.09	3.71	3.89	4.21
Debt over Equity	1.55	1.42	1.53	-	1.28	0.93	0.81	0.77	0.69	0.68	0.82	0.58
Growth Stability	-	-	-	-	100%	100%	99%	66%	100%	100%	98%	66%

Bad Debt/FCF ratio (4.21)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.58)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (66%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2014	12/2015	12/2016	07/2017	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	-2%	1%	-	-	9%	-1%	-4%	16%	10%	-8%	5%
Earnings YoY growth	-	12%	3%	-	-	10%	-6%	-34%	82%	22%	-26%	10%
Equity YoY growth	-	7%	8%	-	-	22%	15%	6%	11%	2%	9%	7%
FCF YoY growth	-	42%	18%	-	-	23%	29%	-24%	-20%	37%	26%	2%