Miscellaneous Transportation Equipment
Polaris Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, and markets powersports vehicles worldwide. It operates through three segments: Off-Road, On-Road, and Marine. The company offers off-road vehicles (ORVs), including all-terrain vehicles and side-by-side vehicles; military and commercial ORVs; snowmobiles; motorcycles; moto-roadsters, quadricycles, and boats; and aftermarket parts and apparel. It also provides ORV accessories comprising winches, bumper/brushguards, plows, racks, wheels and tires, pull-behinds, cab systems, lighting and audio systems, cargo box accessories, tracks, and oil; snowmobile accessories, which include covers, traction products, reverse kits, electric starters, tracks, bags, windshields, oil, and lubricants; and motorcycle accessories, such as saddle bags, handlebars, backrests, exhausts, windshields, seats, oil, and various chrome accessories. In addition, the company offers light duty hauling and passenger vehicles; gear and apparel, such as helmets, goggles, jackets, gloves, boots, bibs, hats, pants, and leathers; and pontoon and deck boats. It provides its products through dealers and distributors, and online; and retail and e-commerce sites. The company was formerly known as Polaris Industries Inc. Polaris Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Medina, Minnesota.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Polaris Inc.
Growth
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%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $305.9M | $322.4M | $339.6M | $357.6M | $376.5M | $396.1M | $416.6M | $438M | $460.2M | $483.5M | $507.6M | $5.076B |
DCF | $280.3M | $256.8M | $235.2M | $215.2M | $196.9M | $180.1M | $164.6M | $150.5M | $137.4M | $125.5M | $1.255B | |
Value | $3.197B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 9.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% |
ROA | 30% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 4.6% | 14% | 15% | 13% | 10% |
ROE | 46% | 25% | 19% | 39% | 29% | 11% | 40% | 41% | 35% | 28% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +4.82%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.17%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +11.58%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.78%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +32.51%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.34%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.43 | 8.06 | 4.61 | 1.98 | -511.74 | 11.16 | 3.73 | 6.76 |
Debt Equity | 0.48 | 1.32 | 1.03 | 2.34 | 1.68 | 1.39 | 1.92 | 2.31 | 1.35 | 1.50 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 46% | 100% | 100% | 45% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 45% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 6.76.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -14.74.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.45.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 10% | 8% | 8.3% | 4% | 0.11% |
Net Income | 13% | 8.4% | 59% | 12% | 11% |
Stockholders Equity | 7.3% | 10% | 7.5% | 29% | 1.2% |
FCF | 5.1% | 15% | -14% | 130% | 17% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.01%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.11%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.44%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +10.89%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +10.38%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.24%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +15.31%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +16.85%.