Pgt Innovations, Inc.

PGTI

Metal Doors, Sash, Frames, Moldings & Trim

Mkt Cap

$2.451B

PE

22.82

Debt

$620M

Cash

$32.71M

EV

$3.038B

FCF

$127.4M

Market Cap

$2.451B

P/E Ratio

22.82

Debt

$620M

Cash

$32.71M

EV

$3.038B

FCF

$127.4M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2015-01-02","value":16405000},{"time":"2016-01-01","value":23552000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":23747000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":39839000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":53933000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":43688000},{"time":"2021-01-01","value":45108000},{"time":"2021-12-31","value":26797000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":96882000},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":107401000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2015-01-02","value":306388000},{"time":"2016-01-01","value":389810000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":458550000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":511081000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":698493000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":744956000},{"time":"2021-01-01","value":882621000},{"time":"2021-12-31","value":1161464000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1491954000},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":1504241000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2015-01-02","value":0.05354321970834367},{"time":"2016-01-01","value":0.06041917857417716},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.05178715516301385},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":0.07795046186416635},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":0.07721337221704441},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":0.058645074339961016},{"time":"2021-01-01","value":0.05110687373176029},{"time":"2021-12-31","value":0.023071743936962315},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.06493631841196176},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":0.07139879846380999}],"Assets":[{"time":"2015-01-02","value":311749000},{"time":"2016-01-01","value":345729000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":436648000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":453119000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":862153000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":922733000},{"time":"2021-01-01","value":1062521000},{"time":"2021-12-31","value":1460610000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1640249000},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":1577879000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2015-01-02","value":73976000},{"time":"2016-01-01","value":106961000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":132519000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":175325000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":385544000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":431548000},{"time":"2021-01-01","value":485134000},{"time":"2021-12-31","value":529097000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":628015000},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":659867000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2015-01-02","value":0.22176111171190657},{"time":"2016-01-01","value":0.22019240657809855},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.17919694534368658},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":0.22722943105660914},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":0.13988805428174217},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":0.10123555201275408},{"time":"2021-01-01","value":0.09298049611035301},{"time":"2021-12-31","value":0.050646667813274315},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.15426701591522496},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":0.16276158680461367}],"ROA":[{"time":"2015-01-02","value":0.11680871470317467},{"time":"2016-01-01","value":0.14734662119752753},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.13535616789725363},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":0.1328150000331039},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":0.1103156864268871},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":0.09109460699899104},{"time":"2021-01-01","value":0.07972642423067403},{"time":"2021-12-31","value":0.0687767439631387},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.09776564411866735},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":0.11358665651802198}]}

PGT Innovations, Inc., together with its subsidiaries manufactures and supplies impact-resistant aluminum frame windows and doors in the United States and internationally. The company provides heavy-duty aluminum or vinyl frames with laminated glass to provide protection from hurricane-force winds and wind-borne debris; and non-impact resistant vinyl windows with insulating glass and multi-chambered frames for various climate zones. It also offers customizable non-impact-resistant aluminum frame windows and doors; and non-glass vertical and horizontal sliding panels for porch enclosures, including vinyl-glazed aluminum-framed products used for enclosing screened-in porches that provide protection from inclement weather. In addition, the company provides premium aluminum impact-resistant products; aluminum impact-resistant windows and doors; vinyl energy-efficient impact-resistant windows; and commercial storefront window system and entry doors. Further, it provides impact and non-impact sliding glass and terrace doors; fixed picture, single hung, and horizontal rolling windows; aluminum thermally broken doors and windows; fixed and operating windows; sliding, folding, and hinged doors; and moving glass walls and windows. The company offers its products under the PGT, CGI, WinDoor, Western Window Systems, NewSouth, Eco Window Systems, CGI Commercial, Anlin, and Martin brands. It serves window distributors, building supply distributors, window replacement dealers, enclosure contractors, and garage door installation dealers. The company was formerly known as PGT, Inc. and changed its name to PGT Innovations, Inc. in December 2016. PGT Innovations, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in North Venice, Florida.

Sector

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9/29/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/30/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Pgt Innovations, Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$127.4M	$164.1M	$207M	$255.7M	$309.1M	$365.5M	$422.4M	$477.1M	$526.2M	$566.4M	$594.7M	$5.947B
DCF		$142.7M	$156.5M	$168.1M	$176.7M	$181.7M	$182.6M	$179.4M	$172M	$161M	$147M	$1.47B
Value	$3.138B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 18%

Earnings Stability 56%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	01-2016	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	01-2021	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	6%	5.2%	7.8%	7.7%	5.9%	5.1%	2.3%	6.5%	7.1%	7.1%
ROA	15%	14%	13%	11%	9.1%	8%	6.9%	9.8%	11%	11%
ROE	22%	18%	23%	14%	10%	9.3%	5.1%	15%	16%	16%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +5.77%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.11%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +9.35%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.07%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +11.7%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.66%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	01-2016	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	01-2021	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	13.36	9.21	7.20	5.38	7.59	8.27	20.99	4.31	4.87	4.87
Debt Equity	1.88	1.99	1.28	0.98	0.88	0.86	1.20	1.04	0.94	0.94
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	98%	56%	100%	100%	56%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 4.87.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.01.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.56.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	01-2021	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	18%	17%	19%	0.82%	-0.85%
Net Income	24%	15%	34%	11%	6.7%
Stockholders Equity	26%	11%	11%	5.1%	-5.5%
FCF	24%	13%	36%	-16%	-17%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +16.58%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.85%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +14.77%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +6.71%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +11.35%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -5.46%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +12.55%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -16.71%.