Progressive Corp

Finance
Property-Casualty Insurers
www.progressive.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $166.22B
PE 19
Debt $6.89B
Cash $207.00M
EV $172.91B
FCF $15.73B

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$8.72B
EBIT	$11.29B
ROE	30%
ROA	10%
FCF	$15.73B
Equity	$28.95B
Growth Stability	16%
PE	19.07
PEG	2.41
PB	5.74
P/FCF	10.57
P/S	2.12
Price/Cash	0
Debt/Equity	0.24
Debt/FCF	0.44
Net Margins	13%
Op. Margins	14%
Earnings CAGR	14%
Sales Growth YoY	18%
Sales Growth QoQ	1%
Sales CAGR	15%
FCF CAGR	20%
Equity CAGR	14%
Earnings Stability	0.22
Earnings Growth YoY	11%
Earnings Growth QoQ	9%

Earnings CAGR 5Y	8%
Sales CAGR 5Y	14%
FCF CAGR 5Y	19%
Equity CAGR 5Y	9%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	21%
Sales CAGR 3Y	21%
FCF CAGR 3Y	49%
Equity CAGR 3Y	29%
Market Cap	$166.22B
Revenue	$78.54B
Dividend Yield	2%
Payout Ratio	33%
Assets	$111.41B
Total Debt	$6.89B
Cash	$207.00M
Shares Outstanding	586M
EV	172.91B
Earnings Score	12%
Moat Score	93%
Safety Score	67%
Final Score	57%
Shares Growth 3y	0%
Equity Growth QoQ	13%
Equity Growth YoY	33%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Progressive underwrites private and commercial auto insurance and specialty lines; it has over 20 million personal auto policies in force and is the fourth- largest auto insurer in the United States. Progressive markets its policies through independent insurance agencies in the U.S. and Canada and directly via the internet and telephone. Its premiums are split roughly equally between the agent and the direct channel. The company also offers commercial auto policies and entered homeowners insurance through an acquisition in 2015.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Progressive Corp (PGR) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2025
- 10-Q Mar 31
2024
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Progressive Corp compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Progressive Corp compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 14%

Stability 22%

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Progressive Corp Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Progressive Corp.

Years

Calculation mode

= $616B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$16B	$19B	$22B	$27B	$32B	$38B	$46B	$55B	$66B	$78B	$94B	$936B
DCF		$17B	$19B	$20B	$22B	$24B	$26B	$28B	$31B	$33B	$36B	$361B
Value	$616B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Net Margins	6%	4%	6%	8%	10%	13%	7%	1%	6%	11%	13%
ROA	-	5%	6%	7%	10%	12%	6%	2%	6%	10%	10%
ROE	-	13%	17%	24%	29%	33%	18%	4%	19%	33%	30%

Good Net Margins (12.58%)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	1.28	0.93	0.74	0.75	0.89	0.66	0.98	0.67	0.47	0.44
Debt over Equity	0.37	0.4	0.36	0.41	0.33	0.35	0.27	0.41	0.34	0.27	0.24
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	82%	16%	100%	100%	16%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (0.44)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.24)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (16%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	12%	14%	19%	22%	9%	12%	4%	25%	21%	14%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-19%	54%	63%	52%	44%	-41%	-79%	456%	119%	8%
Equity YoY growth	-	9%	17%	17%	26%	25%	7%	-13%	28%	26%	9%
FCF YoY growth	-	15%	45%	67%	-2%	13%	13%	-13%	58%	43%	19%