Progressive Corp

Finance
Property-Casualty Insurers
www.progressive.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $155.85B
PE 19
Debt $6.89B
Cash $147.00M
EV $162.59B
FCF $14.29B

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$8.08B
EBIT	$10.52B
ROE	30%
ROA	10%
FCF	$14.29B
Equity	$27.16B
Growth Stability	16%
PE	19.28
PEG	-3.03
PB	5.74
P/FCF	10.9
P/S	2.16
Price/Cash	0
Debt/Equity	0.25
Debt/FCF	0.48
Net Margins	11%
Op. Margins	15%
Earnings CAGR	11%
Sales Growth YoY	27%
Sales Growth QoQ	9%
Sales CAGR	14%
FCF CAGR	19%
Equity CAGR	14%
Earnings Stability	0.16
Earnings Growth YoY	110%
Earnings Growth QoQ	60%

Earnings CAGR 5Y	-6%
Sales CAGR 5Y	13%
FCF CAGR 5Y	15%
Equity CAGR 5Y	8%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	18%
Sales CAGR 3Y	18%
FCF CAGR 3Y	33%
Equity CAGR 3Y	17%
Market Cap	$155.85B
Revenue	$71.99B
Dividend Yield	0%
Payout Ratio	8%
Assets	$105.20B
Total Debt	$6.89B
Cash	$147.00M
Shares Outstanding	585.47M
EV	162.59B
Earnings Score	9%
Moat Score	93%
Safety Score	67%
Final Score	56%
Shares Growth 3y	0%
Equity Growth QoQ	16%
Equity Growth YoY	56%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Progressive underwrites private and commercial auto insurance and specialty lines; it has over 20 million personal auto policies in force and is the fourth- largest auto insurer in the United States. Progressive markets its policies through independent insurance agencies in the U.S. and Canada and directly via the internet and telephone. Its premiums are split roughly equally between the agent and the direct channel. The company also offers commercial auto policies and entered homeowners insurance through an acquisition in 2015.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Progressive Corp (PGR) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Progressive Corp compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Progressive Corp compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 11%

Stability 16%

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Progressive Corp Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Progressive Corp.

Years

Calculation mode

= $550B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$14B	$17B	$20B	$24B	$29B	$35B	$41B	$49B	$59B	$70B	$83B	$833B
DCF		$15B	$17B	$18B	$20B	$21B	$23B	$25B	$27B	$30B	$32B	$321B
Value	$550B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	6%	4%	6%	8%	10%	13%	7%	1%	6%	11%
ROA	-	5%	6%	7%	10%	12%	6%	2%	6%	10%
ROE	-	13%	17%	24%	29%	33%	18%	4%	19%	30%

Good Net Margins (11.08%)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	1.28	0.93	0.74	0.75	0.89	0.66	0.98	0.67	0.48
Debt over Equity	0.37	0.4	0.36	0.41	0.33	0.35	0.27	0.41	0.34	0.25
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	82%	16%	100%	16%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (0.48)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.25)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (16%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	12%	14%	19%	22%	9%	12%	4%	25%	13%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-19%	54%	63%	52%	44%	-41%	-79%	456%	-6%
Equity YoY growth	-	9%	17%	17%	26%	25%	7%	-13%	28%	8%
FCF YoY growth	-	15%	45%	67%	-2%	13%	13%	-13%	58%	15%