Pagerduty, Inc.

PD

Services-Prepackaged Software

Mkt Cap

$1.818B

PE

-22.24

Debt

$489.5M

Cash

$366.7M

EV

$1.941B

FCF

$69.81M

Market Cap

$1.818B

P/E Ratio

-22.24

Debt

$489.5M

Cash

$366.7M

EV

$1.941B

FCF

$69.81M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2018-01-30","value":-38149000},{"time":"2019-01-30","value":-40741000},{"time":"2020-01-30","value":-50339000},{"time":"2021-01-30","value":-68903000},{"time":"2022-01-30","value":-107455000},{"time":"2023-01-30","value":-129225000},{"time":"2024-01-30","value":-81757000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2018-01-30","value":79630000},{"time":"2019-01-30","value":117823000},{"time":"2020-01-30","value":166351000},{"time":"2021-01-30","value":213556000},{"time":"2022-01-30","value":281396000},{"time":"2023-01-30","value":370793000},{"time":"2024-01-30","value":430699000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2018-01-30","value":-0.47907823684541},{"time":"2019-01-30","value":-0.34578138394031727},{"time":"2020-01-30","value":-0.302607137919219},{"time":"2021-01-30","value":-0.32264605068459795},{"time":"2022-01-30","value":-0.38186399238084406},{"time":"2023-01-30","value":-0.3485098154495905},{"time":"2024-01-30","value":-0.1898239838030736}],"Assets":[{"time":"2019-01-30","value":197234000},{"time":"2020-01-30","value":435398000},{"time":"2021-01-30","value":795443000},{"time":"2022-01-30","value":806448000},{"time":"2023-01-30","value":817873000},{"time":"2024-01-30","value":925306000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2018-01-30","value":-56365000},{"time":"2019-01-30","value":-68930000},{"time":"2020-01-30","value":307938000},{"time":"2021-01-30","value":366727000},{"time":"2022-01-30","value":266975000},{"time":"2023-01-30","value":240978000},{"time":"2024-01-30","value":171600000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2018-01-30","value":0.6768207220793045},{"time":"2019-01-30","value":0.5910488901784419},{"time":"2020-01-30","value":-0.16347121823224156},{"time":"2021-01-30","value":-0.1878863568812768},{"time":"2022-01-30","value":-0.4024908699316415},{"time":"2023-01-30","value":-0.536252271991634},{"time":"2024-01-30","value":-0.47643939393939394}],"ROA":[{"time":"2019-01-30","value":-0.20300759503939483},{"time":"2020-01-30","value":-0.11406575133555964},{"time":"2021-01-30","value":-0.08332715229123897},{"time":"2022-01-30","value":-0.12612220502747853},{"time":"2023-01-30","value":-0.15818715130588734},{"time":"2024-01-30","value":-0.083625308816759}]}

PagerDuty, Inc. engages in the operation of a digital operations management platform in the United States, EMEA, the Asia Pacific, and Japan. The company's digital operations management platform collects data and digital signals from virtually any software-enabled system or device and leverage powerful machine learning to correlate, process, and predict opportunities and issues. Its platform includes PagerDuty Incident Response, that provides a real-time view across the status of a digital service while incorporating noise reduction to remove false positives; PagerDuty Process Automation products, which empower users with the ability to create automated workflows and runbooks that span different scripts, tools, APIs, and system commands to safely hand off the knowledge required to use these tools correctly and consistently; PagerDuty Event Intelligence, that applies machine learning to correlate and automate the identification of incidents from billions of events; and PagerDuty for Customer Service, which is offered to orchestrate, automate, and scale responses to customer impacting issues. It serves various industries, including software and technology, telecommunications, retail, travel and hospitality, media and entertainment, and financial services. PagerDuty, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Sector

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10/31/23
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10-Q
10/31/19
10-Q
7/31/19
10-Q
4/30/19

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Pagerduty, Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$69.81M	$90.75M	$115.5M	$143.7M	$174.8M	$207.8M	$241.3M	$273.5M	$302.4M	$325.9M	$342.2M	$3.422B
DCF		$78.92M	$87.3M	$94.47M	$99.95M	$103.3M	$104.3M	$102.8M	$98.84M	$92.63M	$84.58M	$845.8M
Value	$1.793B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth -

Earnings Stability -

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	01-2018	01-2019	01-2020	01-2021	01-2022	01-2023	01-2024	TTM
Net Margin	-48%	-35%	-30%	-32%	-38%	-35%	-19%	-19%
ROA	-	-20%	-11%	-8.3%	-13%	-16%	-8.4%	-8.4%
ROE	68%	59%	-16%	-19%	-40%	-54%	-48%	-48%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is -31.52%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.67%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is -12.81%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +1.21%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is -19.59%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -19.06%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

Data are missing

Years	01-2018	01-2019	01-2020	01-2021	01-2022	01-2023	01-2024	TTM
Debt FCF	-	-	0.00	50.14	-31.66	24.02	7.01	7.01
Debt Equity	-	-	0.00	0.83	1.12	1.23	2.85	2.85
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 7.01.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -1.21.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Data are missing

Years	01-2019	01-2021	01-2023	Trend
Revenue	30%	26%	16%	-5.3%
Net Income	-	-	-	-
Stockholders Equity	-	-22%	-29%	-13%
FCF	-	130%	470%	-

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +29.6%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -5.25%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +14.95%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -12.62%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -.