Paccar Inc

PCAR

Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies

Mkt Cap

$56.59B

PE

11.18

Debt

Cash

EV

FCF

$3.656B

Market Cap

$56.59B

P/E Ratio

11.18

Debt

Cash

EV

FCF

$3.656B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1358800000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1604000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":521700000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1675200000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2195100000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2387900000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1298400000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1852100000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":3011600000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":4600800000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":18997000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":19115100000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":17033300000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":19456400000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":23495700000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":25599700000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":18728500000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":23522300000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":28819700000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":35127400000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.0715270832236669},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.08391271821753483},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.030628239976986257},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.08610020353199975},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.09342560553633218},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.09327843685668191},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.06932749552820568},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.07873804857518185},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.10449796493370854},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.13097468073355842}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":20618800000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":21109800000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":20638900000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":23440200000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":25482400000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":28361100000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":28260000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":29301700000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":33275500000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":40823400000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":6753200000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":6940400000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":6777600000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":8050500000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":8592900000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":9706100000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":10390000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":11437400000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":13167100000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":15878800000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.2012083160575727},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.23111059881274854},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.07697415014164306},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.20808645425749953},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.25545508501204484},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.2460205437817455},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.12496631376323387},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.16193365625054645},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.22872158637816983},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.2897448169886893}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.09785244534114497},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.11071161261594141},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.0547703608234935},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.09271678569295484},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.11028003641729194},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.10927643850203271},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.058665958952583155},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.08117617749140835},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.11566167300265962},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.14007162558728573}]}

PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Europe, Mexico, South America, Australia, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck segment designs, manufactures, and distributes trucks for the over-the-road and off-highway hauling of commercial and consumer goods. It sells its trucks through a network of independent dealers under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. The Parts segment distributes aftermarket parts for trucks and related commercial vehicles. The Financial Services segment conducts full-service leasing operations under the PacLease trade name, as well as provides finance and leasing products and services to customers and dealers. This segment also offers equipment financing and administrative support services for its franchisees; retail loan and leasing services for small, medium, and large commercial trucking companies, as well as independent owners/operators and other businesses; and truck inventory financing services to independent dealers. In addition, this segment offers loans and leases directly to customers for the acquisition of trucks and related equipment. The company also manufactures and markets industrial winches under the Braden, Carco, and Gearmatic nameplates. PACCAR Inc was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
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10-K
12/31/22
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12/31/19
10-Q
9/30/19
10-Q
6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Paccar Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$3.656B	$4.156B	$4.685B	$5.236B	$5.801B	$6.371B	$6.936B	$7.483B	$8.002B	$8.48B	$8.903B	$89.03B
DCF		$3.614B	$3.543B	$3.443B	$3.317B	$3.168B	$2.999B	$2.813B	$2.616B	$2.41B	$2.201B	$22.01B
Value	$52.13B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 16%

Earnings Stability 53%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	8.4%	3.1%	8.6%	9.3%	9.3%	6.9%	7.9%	10%	13%	14%
ROA	11%	5.5%	9.3%	11%	11%	5.9%	8.1%	12%	14%	16%
ROE	23%	7.7%	21%	26%	25%	12%	16%	23%	29%	30%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +9.5%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.66%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +10.25%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.54%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +21.78%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.45%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Data are missing

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Debt Equity	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	62%	94%	100%	100%	62%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.62.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	11%	8.4%	23%	22%	2.7%
Net Income	36%	16%	52%	53%	1.6%
Stockholders Equity	13%	13%	15%	21%	1.8%
FCF	38%	22%	30%	77%	8.7%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.38%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.67%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +15.95%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.59%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +13.07%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.78%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +22.49%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +8.71%.