Patrick Industries Inc
PATK
Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories
Mkt Cap
$1.782BPE
11.70Debt
$1.133BCash
$16.45MEV
$2.898BFCF
$411.9MP/E Ratio
11.70Debt
$1.133BCash
$16.45MEV
$2.898BFCF
$411.9MPatrick Industries, Inc. manufactures and distributes components, building products, and materials for the recreational vehicle, marine, manufactured housing, and industrial markets in the United States, Mexico, China, and Canada. Its Manufacturing segment manufactures and sells laminated products for furniture, shelving, wall, countertop, and cabinet products; cabinet doors, fiberglass bath fixtures, and tile systems; hardwood furniture, vinyl printing, amplifiers, tower speakers, soundbars, and subwoofers; solid surface, granite, and quartz countertop fabrication; aluminum products; fiberglass and plastic components; RV paintings; decorative vinyl and paper laminated panels; softwoods lumber; custom cabinets; polymer-based flooring products; dash panels; and other products. This segment also provides wrapped vinyl, paper, and hardwood profile mouldings; interior passage doors; air handling products; slide-out trim and fascia; treated, untreated, and laminated plywood; fiberglass and plastic helm systems and components; boat towers, tops, trailers, and frames; adhesives and sealants; thermoformed shower surrounds; specialty bath, and closet building products; wiring and wire harnesses; aluminum and plastic fuel tanks; CNC molds, composite parts, marine hardware; slotwall panels, components; and other products. The company's Distribution segment distributes pre-finished wall and ceiling panels, drywall and finishing products, electronic and audio system components, appliances, marine accessories, wiring products, electrical and plumbing products, fiber reinforced polyester products; cement siding products, raw and processed lumber, interior passage, roofing, laminate, and ceramic flooring products, shower doors, furniture, fireplaces and surrounds, interior and exterior lighting products, and other products. This segment also offers transportation and logistics services. The company was founded in 1959 and is based in Elkhart, Indiana.
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DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Patrick Industries Inc
Value
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $411.9M | $535.4M | $681.2M | $847.7M | $1.031B | $1.226B | $1.424B | $1.614B | $1.784B | $1.923B | $2.019B | $20.19B |
| DCF | $465.6M | $515.1M | $557.4M | $589.7M | $609.6M | $615.5M | $606.6M | $583.2M | $546.6M | $499M | $4.99B | |
| Value | $10.58B | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 38%
Earnings Stability 66%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% |
| ROA | 20% | 18% | 17% | 14% | 14% | 10% | 9.9% | 13% | 18% | 10% |
| ROE | 30% | 33% | 30% | 23% | 29% | 18% | 17% | 29% | 34% | 15% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +5.08%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.23%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +13.34%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.42%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +25.24%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.59%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | 2.58 | 3.73 | 3.53 | 4.78 | 4.05 | 4.31 | 6.62 | 7.30 | 3.94 | 2.75 |
| Debt Equity | 0.98 | 1.67 | 1.56 | 1.00 | 1.64 | 1.43 | 1.51 | 1.78 | 1.37 | 1.10 |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 100% | 100% | 99% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 2.75.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.22.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.99.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2017 | 12-2019 | 12-2021 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 27% | 24% | 28% | 20% | 0.29% |
| Net Income | 34% | 31% | 54% | 46% | 3.8% |
| Stockholders Equity | 33% | 21% | 24% | 24% | -1.8% |
| FCF | 28% | 34% | 26% | 77% | -9.3% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +24.45%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.29%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +30.8%.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.83%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +20.84%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.79%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +33.79%.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -9.27%.