Patrick Industries Inc

PATK

Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories

Mkt Cap

$2.445B

PE

16.54

Debt

$1.419B

Cash

$17.61M

EV

$3.846B

FCF

$390.6M

Market Cap

$2.445B

P/E Ratio

16.54

Debt

$1.419B

Cash

$17.61M

EV

$3.846B

FCF

$390.6M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":30674000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":42219000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":55577000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":85718000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":119832000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":89566000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":97061000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":224915000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":328196000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":142897000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":735717000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":920333000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1221887000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1635653000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2263061000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2337082000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":2486597000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":4078092000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":4881872000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":3468045000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.041692661716393666},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.04587361313785336},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.04548456608507988},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.05240598097518239},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.05295129030989443},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.038323858555241105},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.039033667297113286},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.05515201716881326},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.06722748978260798},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.04120390594701049}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":255561000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":386049000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":534950000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":866644000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1231231000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1470993000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1753435000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":2650731000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2782471000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2562448000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":102768000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":128597000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":185448000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":370685000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":408754000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":497481000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":559441000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":767557000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":955169000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1045337000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.2984781254865328},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.3283047038422358},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.2996904792718174},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.2312421597852624},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.29316410359287004},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.18003903666672696},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.1734964008715843},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.2930270976618023},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.34359992838963577},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.13669945673022194}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.2014039700893329},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.18111172415936838},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.1698046546406206},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.14065752488911248},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.14490781989732227},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.104991662094925},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.09887620584737958},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.13268490842714709},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.17831991779968237},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.10154352400517005}]}

Patrick Industries, Inc. manufactures and distributes components, building products, and materials for the recreational vehicle, marine, manufactured housing, and industrial markets in the United States, Mexico, China, and Canada. Its Manufacturing segment manufactures and sells laminated products for furniture, shelving, wall, countertop, and cabinet products; cabinet doors, fiberglass bath fixtures, and tile systems; hardwood furniture, vinyl printing, amplifiers, tower speakers, soundbars, and subwoofers; solid surface, granite, and quartz countertop fabrication; aluminum products; fiberglass and plastic components; RV paintings; decorative vinyl and paper laminated panels; softwoods lumber; custom cabinets; polymer-based flooring products; dash panels; and other products. This segment also provides wrapped vinyl, paper, and hardwood profile mouldings; interior passage doors; air handling products; slide-out trim and fascia; treated, untreated, and laminated plywood; fiberglass and plastic helm systems and components; boat towers, tops, trailers, and frames; adhesives and sealants; thermoformed shower surrounds; specialty bath, and closet building products; wiring and wire harnesses; aluminum and plastic fuel tanks; CNC molds, composite parts, marine hardware; slotwall panels, components; and other products. The company's Distribution segment distributes pre-finished wall and ceiling panels, drywall and finishing products, electronic and audio system components, appliances, marine accessories, wiring products, electrical and plumbing products, fiber reinforced polyester products; cement siding products, raw and processed lumber, interior passage, roofing, laminate, and ceramic flooring products, shower doors, furniture, fireplaces and surrounds, interior and exterior lighting products, and other products. This segment also offers transportation and logistics services. The company was founded in 1959 and is based in Elkhart, Indiana.

Sector

10-Q
10/1/23
10-Q
7/2/23
10-Q
4/2/23
10-K
12/31/22
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9/25/22
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6/26/22
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3/27/22
10-K
12/31/21
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9/26/21
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6/27/21
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3/28/21
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12/31/20
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9/27/20
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3/29/20
10-K
12/31/19
10-Q
9/29/19
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6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
7/1/18
10-Q
4/1/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Patrick Industries Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$390.6M	$507.8M	$646M	$803.9M	$978.1M	$1.163B	$1.35B	$1.53B	$1.692B	$1.823B	$1.914B	$19.14B
DCF		$441.5M	$488.5M	$528.6M	$559.2M	$578.1M	$583.7M	$575.2M	$553M	$518.3M	$473.2M	$4.732B
Value	$10.03B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 34%

Earnings Stability 60%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	4.6%	4.5%	5.2%	5.3%	3.8%	3.9%	5.5%	6.7%	4.1%	4.2%
ROA	18%	17%	14%	14%	10%	9.9%	13%	18%	10%	8.7%
ROE	33%	30%	23%	29%	18%	17%	29%	34%	14%	14%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +4.9%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.13%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +12.69%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.11%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +23.67%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.49%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	3.73	3.53	4.78	4.05	4.31	6.62	7.30	3.94	2.99	3.63
Debt Equity	1.67	1.56	1.00	1.64	1.43	1.51	1.78	1.37	1.00	1.34
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	99%	100%	100%	66%	66%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.63.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.16.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.66.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	16%	8.9%	12%	-29%	-3.8%
Net Income	14%	3.6%	14%	-56%	-3.5%
Stockholders Equity	28%	21%	23%	9.4%	-4.1%
FCF	23%	16%	40%	5.4%	-1.6%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.91%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -3.78%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.58%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -3.5%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +20.66%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -4.09%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +16.13%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.56%.