O Reilly Automotive Inc

ORLY

Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores

Mkt Cap

$56.52B

PE

23.78

Debt

$5.317B

Cash

$89.26M

EV

$61.75B

FCF

$1.992B

Market Cap

$56.52B

P/E Ratio

23.78

Debt

$5.317B

Cash

$89.26M

EV

$61.75B

FCF

$1.992B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":778182000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":931216000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1037691000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1133804000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1324487000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1391042000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1752302000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":2164685000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2172650000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2346581000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":7216081000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":7966674000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":8593096000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":8977726000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":9536428000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":10149985000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":11604493000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":13327563000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":14409860000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":15812250000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.10783997574306607},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.1168889300603991},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.1207586881375467},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.12629077786512977},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.13888711790200692},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.13704867544139226},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.1510020299895911},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.1624216670369519},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.15077523306957874},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.14840272573479424}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":6540301000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":6676684000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":7204189000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":7571885000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":7980789000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":10717160000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":11596642000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":11718707000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":12627979000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":13872995000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":2018418000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1961314000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1627136000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":653046000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":353667000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":397340000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":140258000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-66423000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-1060752000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-1739278000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.3855405570104904},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.47479189971621066},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.6377407911815607},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1.73617784964612},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":3.745011550413242},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":3.5008858911763228},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":12.493419270202056},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-32.589389217590295},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":-2.048216736805587},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-1.3491695979596132}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.19501732412621375},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.22728273496244544},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.23710121985972327},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.228364931585728},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.22757348928783858},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.18011338824837925},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.20933051136699746},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.24893258274995697},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.23396388289844322},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.2296819107914333}]}

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States and Mexico. The company provides new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It also offers auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. In addition, the company provide enhanced services and programs comprising used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. Further, it offers do-it-yourself and professional service for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. The company was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.

Sector

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DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of O Reilly Automotive Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$1.992B	$2.332B	$2.698B	$3.086B	$3.489B	$3.897B	$4.3B	$4.688B	$5.048B	$5.368B	$5.636B	$56.36B
DCF		$2.028B	$2.04B	$2.029B	$1.995B	$1.937B	$1.859B	$1.762B	$1.65B	$1.526B	$1.393B	$13.93B
Value	$32.15B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 13%

Earnings Stability 97%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	12%	12%	13%	14%	14%	15%	16%	15%	15%	15%
ROA	23%	24%	23%	23%	18%	21%	25%	23%	23%	23%
ROE	47%	64%	170%	370%	350%	1.2K%	-3.3K%	-200%	-130%	-170%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +14.81%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.29%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +22.16%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.6%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is -270.79%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -249.15%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	1.61	1.94	3.19	2.81	3.62	1.75	1.39	1.70	2.76	2.67
Debt Equity	0.71	1.17	4.59	9.72	9.84	29.59	-57.96	-4.15	-3.22	-3.82
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 2.67.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.18.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 1.00.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	9.1%	11%	11%	9.7%	0.45%
Net Income	12%	12%	10%	8%	-0.7%
Stockholders Equity	-	-	-	-	-5.9%
FCF	11%	11%	-5.1%	-22%	-1.2%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +10.64%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.45%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +12.12%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.7%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -5.92%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +10.64%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.16%.