Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.

Consumer Discretionary
Department/Specialty Retail Stores
www.ollies.us

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $6.23B
PE 31
Debt $1.57M
Cash $170.60M
EV $6.06B
FCF $84.47M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$203.60M
EBIT	$270.82M
ROE	13%
ROA	11%
FCF	$84.47M
Equity	$1.59B
Growth Stability	57%
PE	30.58
PEG	-10.16
PB	3.91
P/FCF	73.7
P/S	2.81
Price/Cash	0.03
Debt/Equity	0
Debt/FCF	0.02
Net Margins	9%
Gross Margins	40%
Op. Margins	12%
Earnings CAGR	14%
Sales Growth YoY	12%
Sales Growth QoQ	14%
Sales CAGR	13%
FCF CAGR	9%
Equity CAGR	14%
Earnings Stability	0.44
Earnings Growth YoY	16%
Earnings Growth QoQ	6%

Earnings CAGR 5Y	-3%
Sales CAGR 5Y	8%
FCF CAGR 5Y	8%
Equity CAGR 5Y	7%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	10%
Sales CAGR 3Y	10%
FCF CAGR 3Y	58%
Equity CAGR 3Y	9%
Market Cap	$6.23B
Revenue	$2.22B
Assets	$2.37B
Total Debt	$1.57M
Cash	$170.60M
Shares Outstanding	61.31M
EV	6.06B
Earnings Score	51%
Moat Score	91%
Safety Score	82%
Final Score	75%
Working Capital	597.59M
Current Ratio	3.01
Gross Profit	$885.50M
Shares Growth 3y	-2%
Equity Growth QoQ	4%
Equity Growth YoY	12%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc is a retailer of brand name merchandise at drastically reduced prices. It offers customers a selection of brand name products, including housewares, food, books and stationery, bed and bath, floor coverings, toys, and hardware. It operates stores across the Eastern half of the United States. Its differentiated go-to-market strategy is characterized by a unique, fun and engaging treasure hunt shopping experience, compelling customer value proposition and witty, humorous in-store signage and advertising campaigns. These attributes have driven rapid growth and strong and consistent store performance for the company.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Aug 03
- 10-Q May 04
- 10-K Feb 03
2023
- 10-Q Oct 28
- 10-Q Jul 29
- 10-Q Apr 29
- 10-K Jan 28
2022
- 10-Q Oct 29
- 10-Q Jul 30
- 10-Q Apr 30
- 10-K Jan 29

Sector Comparison

How does Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 14%

Stability 44%

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Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= $1.5B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$84M	$92M	$100M	$109M	$118M	$128M	$140M	$152M	$165M	$180M	$195M	$2B
DCF		$84M	$83M	$82M	$81M	$80M	$79M	$78M	$77M	$76M	$75M	$753M
Value	$1.5B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	01/2015	01/2016	01/2017	02/2018	02/2019	01/2020	01/2021	01/2022	01/2023	02/2024	TTM
Net Margins	4%	5%	7%	12%	11%	10%	13%	9%	6%	9%	9%
ROA	-	8%	10%	13%	14%	11%	14%	10%	7%	11%	11%
ROE	-	6%	9%	16%	14%	13%	18%	12%	8%	12%	13%

Net Margins (8.77%)

Net Margins are at a level that is not too high nor too low. They are not a competitive advantage but they are not a competitive disadvantage either.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	01/2015	01/2016	01/2017	02/2018	02/2019	01/2020	01/2021	01/2022	01/2023	02/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	6.48	3.96	0.77	0.02	0.04	0	0.1	0.02	0.01	0.02
Debt over Equity	0.79	0.36	0.31	0.07	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	91%	57%	100%	57%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (0.02)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (57%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	01/2015	01/2016	01/2017	02/2018	02/2019	01/2020	01/2021	01/2022	01/2023	02/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	19%	17%	21%	15%	13%	28%	-3%	4%	15%	8%
Earnings YoY growth	-	33%	67%	113%	6%	5%	72%	-35%	-35%	77%	-3%
Equity YoY growth	-	35%	16%	22%	18%	12%	26%	-4%	6%	11%	7%
FCF YoY growth	-	78%	60%	51%	-32%	-45%	1K%	-97%	524%	108%	8%