Miscellaneous Chemical Products
Orion Engineered Carbons S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells carbon black products in Luxembourg and internationally. It operates in two segments, Specialty Carbon Black and Rubber Carbon Black. The company offers post-treated specialty carbon black grades for coatings and printing applications; high purity carbon black grades for the fiber industry; and conductive carbon black grades for polymers, coatings, and battery electrodes. It also provides rubber carbon black products for applications in mechanical rubber goods under the PUREX brand, as well as in tires under the ECORAX brand name. The company was formerly known as Orion Engineered Carbons S.à r.l. and changed its name to Orion Engineered Carbons S.A. in July 2014. Orion Engineered Carbons S.A. was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Senningerberg, Luxembourg.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Orion S.a.
Growth
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%
Discount
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%
Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $94.8M | $123.2M | $156.8M | $195.1M | $237.4M | $282.2M | $327.7M | $371.4M | $410.6M | $442.5M | $464.7M | $4.647B |
DCF | $107.2M | $118.6M | $128.3M | $135.7M | $140.3M | $141.7M | $139.6M | $134.2M | $125.8M | $114.9M | $1.149B | |
Value | $2.435B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% |
ROA | 11% | 12% | 15% | 12% | 5.4% | 14% | 10% | 12% | 10% |
ROE | 91% | 68% | 76% | 47% | 10% | 42% | 23% | 22% | 18% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +5.76%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.17%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +11.43%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.4%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +36.66%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -8.92%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | - | - | 117.50 | 9.16 | -37.56 | -11.26 | -6.03 | 4.70 | 8.58 | |
Debt Equity | - | 7.21 | 4.31 | 3.58 | 4.08 | 2.45 | 1.99 | 1.70 | 1.65 | |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | - | 100% | 20% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 20% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 8.58.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -16.66.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.20.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 7.5% | 3.7% | 19% | -6.7% | -0.088% |
Net Income | 11% | -3.1% | 79% | -2.5% | 13% |
Stockholders Equity | 36% | 25% | 38% | 4.2% | -7% |
FCF | 7.2% | 97% | - | - | 600% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.71%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.09%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -3.13%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +12.62%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +24.67%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -7.03%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +97.04%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +601.73%.