Nucor Corp

NUE

Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens)

Mkt Cap

$40.96B

PE

9.71

Debt

$6.778B

Cash

$4.558B

EV

$43.18B

FCF

$4.012B

Market Cap

$40.96B

P/E Ratio

9.71

Debt

$6.778B

Cash

$4.558B

EV

$43.18B

FCF

$4.012B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":711625000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":356145000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":793639000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1314139000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2351423000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1264108000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":717114000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":6795150000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":7576165000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":4507855000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":21105141000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":16439276000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":16208122000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":20252393000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":25067279000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":22588858000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":20139658000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":36483939000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":41512467000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":34713501000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.03371808792938175},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.021664275239371856},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.0489655124757822},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.06488808507715607},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.09380447714329106},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.05596157185104267},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.03560705946446558},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.18625044845075528},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.18250336700056877},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.12985884080087456}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":15615927000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":14250399000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":15223518000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":15841258000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":17920588000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":18344666000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":20125394000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":25823072000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":32479210000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":35340499000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":8075118000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":7786013000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":8254708000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":9084788000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":10201968000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":10791176000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":11231861000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":14603794000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":19569906000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":22123754000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.0881256472041647},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.04574163952718805},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.09614380060445506},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.14465268754757954},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.23048719619587124},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.11714274699995626},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.06384640978017801},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.4653003185336632},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.38713343845392},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.20375633357702314}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.07713771971398176},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.04976969416786155},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.08530610335928923},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.11046831002941812},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.18020563834177764},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.0971839443683521},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.04151660335196419},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.3563037736176393},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.3154277459334756},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.1774948621976164}]}

Nucor Corporation engages in manufacture and sale of steel and steel products. The company's Steel Mills segment produces hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized sheet steel products; plate steel products; wide-flange beams, beam blanks, and H-piling and sheet piling products; and bar steel products, such as blooms, billets, concrete reinforcing and merchant bars, and engineered special bar quality products. It also engages in the steel trading and rebar distribution businesses. This segment sells its products to steel service centers, fabricators, and manufacturers in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Its Steel Products segment offers hollow structural section steel tubing products, electrical conduits, steel racking, steel joists and joist girders, steel decks, fabricated concrete reinforcing steel products, cold finished steel products, steel fasteners, metal building systems, insulated metal panels, steel grating and expanded metal products, and wire and wire mesh products primarily for use in nonresidential construction applications. This segment also engages in the piling distribution business. The company's Raw Materials segment produces direct reduced iron (DRI); brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron, hot briquetted iron, and DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal. This segment sells its ferrous scrap to electric arc furnace steel mills and foundries for manufacturing process; and nonferrous scrap metal to aluminum can producers, secondary aluminum smelters, steel mills and other processors, and consumers of various nonferrous metals. It serves agriculture, automotive, construction, energy and transmission, oil and gas, heavy equipment, infrastructure, and transportation industries through its in-house sales force; and internal distribution and trading companies. The company was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Sector

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3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Nucor Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$4.012B	$5.017B	$6.163B	$7.434B	$8.8B	$10.22B	$11.64B	$13B	$14.24B	$15.26B	$16.03B	$160.3B
DCF		$4.363B	$4.66B	$4.888B	$5.031B	$5.082B	$5.034B	$4.889B	$4.653B	$4.339B	$3.962B	$39.62B
Value	$86.52B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 36%

Earnings Stability 63%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	2.2%	4.9%	6.5%	9.4%	5.6%	3.6%	19%	18%	13%	12%
ROA	5%	8.5%	11%	18%	9.7%	4.2%	36%	32%	18%	17%
ROE	4.6%	9.6%	14%	23%	12%	6.4%	47%	39%	20%	19%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +11.4%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +2.03%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +19.47%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +2.73%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +24.46%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +3.08%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	2.47	4.33	6.17	3.04	3.27	4.62	1.21	0.82	1.38	1.69
Debt Equity	0.57	0.60	0.41	0.42	0.40	0.47	0.38	0.34	0.31	0.31
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	85%	44%	100%	100%	90%	44%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.69.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.54.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.44.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	11%	6.7%	20%	-16%	2.4%
Net Income	28%	14%	85%	-40%	19%
Stockholders Equity	15%	17%	25%	13%	3%
FCF	23%	28%	62%	-40%	1.1%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.73%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.44%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +13.9%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +19.09%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +16.74%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.04%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +28.25%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.13%.