Natera, Inc.

Health Care
Medical Specialities
www.natera.com

Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $19.35B
PE -102
Debt $80.36M
Cash $945.59M
EV $18.49B
FCF $69.24M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	-$190.43M
EBIT	-$189.73M
ROE	-16%
ROA	-11%
FCF	$69.24M
Equity	$1.20B
Growth Stability	1
PE	-101.63
PB	16.19
P/FCF	279.51
P/S	11.41
Price/Cash	0.05
Debt/Equity	0.07
Debt/FCF	1.16
Net Margins	-11%
Op. Margins	-11%
Sales Growth YoY	53%
Sales Growth QoQ	8%
Sales CAGR	30%
Equity CAGR	33%
Earnings Growth YoY	-31%

Earnings Growth QoQ	70%
Sales CAGR 5Y	40%
Equity CAGR 5Y	26%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	39%
Sales CAGR 3Y	39%
Equity CAGR 3Y	36%
Market Cap	$19.35B
Revenue	$1.70B
Assets	$1.66B
Total Debt	$80.36M
Cash	$945.59M
Shares Outstanding	124.46M
EV	18.49B
Moat Score	5%
Safety Score	96%
Working Capital	1.03B
Current Ratio	4
Shares Growth 3y	12%
Equity Growth QoQ	36%
Equity Growth YoY	56%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Natera Inc is operative in the healthcare field in the United States. Its core business is to offer invasive and other means of diagnosing the genetic features of a fetus. Natera's array of diagnostic services includes Panorama Non-Invasive Prenatal Test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, Anora Products of Conception (POC) test to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage, and Non-Invasive Paternity Testing (PAT), to determine paternity by studying the fragments of fetal deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) in a pregnant mother's blood and a blood sample from the alleged father. The Company acquires its revenue by billing an insurance carrier, a clinic, or a patient for the test upon delivery of the test result.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Natera, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Natera, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

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Natera, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Natera, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= $692M

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$69M	$69M	$69M	$69M	$69M	$69M	$69M	$69M	$69M	$69M	$69M	$692M
DCF		$63M	$57M	$52M	$47M	$43M	$39M	$36M	$32M	$29M	$27M	$267M
Value	$692M

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Net Margins	-37%	-44%	-65%	-50%	-41%	-59%	-75%	-67%	-40%	-11%	-11%
ROA	-	-45%	-75%	-43%	-20%	-23%	-38%	-39%	-30%	-11%	-11%
ROE	-	-90%	1K%	-398%	-45%	-47%	-72%	-78%	-57%	-16%	-16%

Bad Net Margins (-11.22%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	-0.51	-1.15	-1.66	-1.83	-1.25	-0.9	-0.77	-1.29	1.16	1.16
Debt over Equity	0.23	0.47	-11.88	3.84	0.45	0.52	0.52	0.52	0.48	0.07	0.07
Growth Stability	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1

Good Debt/FCF ratio (1.16)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.07)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Good Graham’s Stability (1)

The company has a good stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a good competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	12/2015	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	12/2020	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	12/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	14%	-3%	22%	17%	29%	60%	31%	32%	57%	40%
Earnings YoY growth	-	36%	42%	-6%	-3%	84%	105%	16%	-21%	-56%	-
Equity YoY growth	-	-42%	-110%	-410%	767%	74%	34%	8%	8%	56%	26%
FCF YoY growth	-	112%	10%	-30%	-8%	195%	86%	27%	-40%	-124%	-