Napco Security Technologies, Inc
NSSC
Communications Equipment, NEC
Mkt Cap
$1.074BPE
34.42Debt
-Cash
$43.58MEV
-FCF
$35.03MP/E Ratio
34.42Debt
-Cash
$43.58MEV
-FCF
$35.03MNapco Security Technologies, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells electronic security products in the United States and internationally. The company offers access control systems, door-locking products, intrusion and fire alarm systems, and video surveillance systems for commercial, residential, institutional, industrial, and governmental applications. Its access control systems include various types of identification readers, control panels, PC-based computers, and electronically activated door-locking devices; and door locking devices comprise microprocessor-based electronic door locks with push button, card readers and bio-metric operation, door alarms, mechanical door locks, and simple dead bolt locks. The company's alarm systems include automatic communicators, cellular communication devices, control panels, combination control panels/digital communicators and digital keypad systems, fire alarm control panels, and area detectors; and video surveillance systems comprise video cameras, control panels, video monitors, or PCs. It also buys and resells various identification readers, video cameras, PC-based computers, and peripheral equipment for access control and video surveillance systems; offers school security products; and markets peripheral and related equipment manufactured by other companies. The company markets and sells its products primarily to independent distributors, dealers, and installers of security equipment. Napco Security Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Amityville, New York.
![LITE Logo](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' width='18' height='18'><defs><linearGradient id="a" x1="3.349" x2="21.904" y1="3.122" y2="24.434" gradientUnits="userSpaceOnUse"><stop stop-color="%231A1E21"/><stop offset="1" stop-color="%2306060A"/></linearGradient></defs><path fill="url(%23a)" d="M0 0h18v18H0z"/><text x='50%' y='52%' dominant-baseline='middle' text-anchor='middle' font-size='5' font-family='sans-serif' fill='gray'>LITE</text></svg>){kind=small}
DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Napco Security Technologies, Inc
Value
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $35.03M | $40.69M | $46.76M | $53.15M | $59.76M | $66.45M | $73.07M | $79.44M | $85.38M | $90.71M | $95.24M | $952.4M |
| DCF | $35.38M | $35.35M | $34.95M | $34.17M | $33.04M | $31.59M | $29.86M | $27.91M | $25.78M | $23.54M | $235.4M | |
| Value | $547M | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 24%
Earnings Stability 85%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 06-2015 | 06-2016 | 06-2017 | 06-2018 | 06-2019 | 06-2020 | 06-2021 | 06-2022 | 06-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | 6.2% | 7% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 12% | 8.4% | 13% | 14% | 16% | 18% |
| ROA | 8.1% | 9.8% | 9% | 11% | 16% | 10% | 14% | 15% | 19% | 20% |
| ROE | 10% | 11% | 9.8% | 12% | 17% | 11% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 21% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +11.88%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.37%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +14.15%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +1.06%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +15.45%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.19%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 06-2015 | 06-2016 | 06-2017 | 06-2018 | 06-2019 | 06-2020 | 06-2021 | 06-2022 | 06-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | 3.90 | 0.60 | 3.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 0.25 | - | - | - |
| Debt Equity | 0.26 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.06 | - | - | - |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.14.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 1.00.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 06-2016 | 06-2018 | 06-2020 | 06-2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11% | 13% | 19% | 18% | 2% |
| Net Income | 25% | 29% | 47% | 38% | 2% |
| Stockholders Equity | 15% | 17% | 22% | 23% | 2% |
| FCF | 14% | 27% | 36% | 220% | 3.6% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +13.13%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.03%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +28.81%.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.04%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +17.18%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.97%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +26.98%.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.61%.