Norfolk Southern Corp

NSC

Railroads, Line-Haul Operating

Mkt Cap

$48.28B

PE

23.14

Debt

$16.58B

Cash

$1.506B

EV

$63.36B

FCF

$1.142B

Market Cap

$48.28B

P/E Ratio

23.14

Debt

$16.58B

Cash

$1.506B

EV

$63.36B

FCF

$1.142B

Norfolk Southern Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods in the United States. The company transports agriculture, forest, and consumer products comprising soybeans, wheat, corn, fertilizers, livestock and poultry feed, food products, food oils, flour, sweeteners, ethanol, lumber and wood products, pulp board and paper products, wood fibers, wood pulp, beverages, and canned goods; chemicals consist of sulfur and related chemicals, petroleum products comprising crude oil, chlorine and bleaching compounds, plastics, rubber, industrial chemicals, chemical wastes, sand, and natural gas liquids; metals and construction materials, such as steel, aluminum products, machinery, scrap metals, cement, aggregates, minerals, clay, transportation equipment, and military-related products; and automotive, including finished motor vehicles and automotive parts, as well as coal. It also transports overseas freight through various Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports; provides commuter rail passenger transportation services; and operates an intermodal network. As of December 31, 2022, the company operated approximately 19,100 route miles in 22 states and the District of Columbia. Norfolk Southern Corporation was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
9/30/22
10-Q
6/30/22
10-Q
3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
10-Q
9/30/21
10-Q
6/30/21
10-Q
3/31/21
10-K
12/31/20
10-Q
9/30/20
10-Q
6/30/20
10-Q
3/31/20
10-K
12/31/19
10-Q
9/30/19
10-Q
6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Norfolk Southern Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$1.142B	$1.369B	$1.618B	$1.886B	$2.167B	$2.455B	$2.739B	$3.012B	$3.262B	$3.479B	$3.653B	$36.53B
DCF		$1.19B	$1.224B	$1.24B	$1.239B	$1.22B	$1.184B	$1.132B	$1.066B	$989M	$903M	$9.03B
Value	$20.42B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 5.5%

Earnings Stability 14%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2014	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Net Margin	17%	15%	17%	51%	23%	24%	21%	27%	26%	17%
ROA	11%	8.4%	8.8%	10%	11%	11%	7.9%	12%	12%	7.9%
ROE	16%	13%	13%	33%	17%	18%	14%	22%	26%	17%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +28.6%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -3.43%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +10.55%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.31%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +21.58%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.77%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2014	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Debt FCF	12.30	21.12	9.30	6.76	6.28	6.51	5.92	4.97	6.68	14.52
Debt Equity	0.73	0.85	0.86	0.63	0.73	0.80	0.86	1.01	1.19	1.31
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	91%	100%	93%	84%	56%	100%	100%	56%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 14.52.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.14.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.56.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2015	12-2017	12-2019	12-2021	Trend
Revenue	2.8%	3.9%	4.1%	14%	1.5%
Net Income	11%	-9.6%	6.3%	8.8%	-0.94%
Stockholders Equity	0.63%	-4.9%	-5.7%	-6.7%	-2.1%
FCF	24%	8.2%	6.7%	-18%	-0.25%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.85%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.52%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -9.56%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.94%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -4.89%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -2.1%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.25%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.25%.