Electric Services
NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated power company in the United States. It operates through Texas, East, and West segments. The company is involved in producing and selling electricity and related products and services to approximately residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers. It generates electricity using natural gas, coal, oil, solar, nuclear, and battery storage. The company also provides system power, distributed generation, renewable products, backup generation, storage and distributed solar, demand response, and energy efficiency and advisory services, as well as carbon management and specialty services. In addition, it trades in electric power, natural gas, and related commodities; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. Further, the company procures fuels; and sells energy, services, and products and services under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, Stream, and XOOM Energy. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Nrg Energy, Inc.
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $1.119B | $1.357B | $1.621B | $1.906B | $2.208B | $2.518B | $2.826B | $3.12B | $3.389B | $3.619B | $3.8B | $38B |
DCF | $1.18B | $1.225B | $1.254B | $1.263B | $1.252B | $1.222B | $1.173B | $1.108B | $1.029B | $939.4M | $9.394B | |
Value | $21.04B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | -44% | -7.2% | -22% | 2.8% | 45% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 3.9% | -0.89% | 5.5% |
ROA | -12% | 1.7% | -2.5% | 9.2% | 10% | 7.4% | 14% | 6.9% | 1.5% | 11% |
ROE | -120% | -20% | -120% | -22% | 270% | 30% | 61% | 32% | -8.8% | 48% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +10.79%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -4%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +8.29%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -1.2%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +60.02%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -17.5%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 773.12 | 21.42 | 55.16 | 6.84 | 5.17 | 5.51 | 36.18 | -1166.14 | -14.11 | 10.67 |
Debt Equity | 3.70 | 4.64 | 8.80 | -5.48 | 3.70 | 5.27 | 2.25 | 2.13 | 3.98 | 3.62 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | - | - | - | 65% | 100% | 51% | -20% | -20% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 10.67.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -102.52.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.20.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 13% | 25% | 47% | -8.6% | 8.6% |
Net Income | - | - | - | - | -440% |
Stockholders Equity | -5.9% | - | 20% | -24% | 9.1% |
FCF | - | - | - | - | -250% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +24.91%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +8.64%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -438.31%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +9.12%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -250.73%.