National Research Corp

NRC

Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research

Mkt Cap

$718.9M

PE

23.68

Debt

$42.67M

Cash

$1.699M

EV

$759.9M

FCF

$25.68M

Market Cap

$718.9M

P/E Ratio

23.68

Debt

$42.67M

Cash

$1.699M

EV

$759.9M

FCF

$25.68M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":18156000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":17610000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":20518000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":22943000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":30047000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":32406000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":37203000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":37448000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":31784000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":30963000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":98837000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":102343000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":109384000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":117559000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":119686000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":127982000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":133277000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":147954000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":151568000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":148580000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.1836963890041179},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.17206843653205398},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.18757770789146494},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.19516157844146342},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.25104857711010475},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.25320748230219875},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.2791404368345626},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.2531056950133149},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.2097012562018368},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.20839278503163278}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":129510000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":129099000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":120624000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":127316000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":108032000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":110685000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":133423000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":157540000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":130461000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":122437000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":87748000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":74222000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":82806000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":90041000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":19083000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":32892000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":64315000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":85337000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":72033000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":48955000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.20691069881934632},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.2372611894047587},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.24778397700649712},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.25480614386779354},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1.5745427867735682},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.9852243706676396},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.5784498173054498},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.4388248942428255},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.4412422084322463},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.6324788070677152}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.21926492162767353},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.21363449755613909},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.2615234115930495},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.2699189418454868},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.33528954383886256},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.38880607128337175},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.3243818532037205},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.31909356353941853},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.35675795831704493},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.32706616463977395}]}

National Research Corporation provides analytics and insights that facilitate measurement and enhancement of the patient and employee experience in the United States and Canada. Its portfolio of subscription-based solutions provides actionable information and analysis to healthcare organizations across a range of mission-critical, constituent-related elements, including patient experience, service recovery, care transitions, health risk assessments, employee engagement, reputation management, and brand loyalty. The company also offers market insights solutions that allow the tracking of awareness, perception, and consistency of healthcare brands; assessment of competitive differentiators; and enhanced segmentation tools to evaluate needs, wants, and behaviors of communities through real-time competitive assessments and enhanced segmentation tools. In addition, it provides experience solutions, such as patient experience, workforce engagement, health risk assessments, care transition, and improvement tools. Further, the company provides reputation solutions that allow healthcare organizations to share a picture of their organization and ensure that timely and relevant content informs consumer decision-making; and governance solutions for not-for-profit hospital and health system boards of directors, executives, and physician leadership. National Research Corporation was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Lincoln, Nebraska.

Sector

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3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of National Research Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$25.68M	$26.76M	$27.89M	$29.06M	$30.28M	$31.56M	$32.89M	$34.27M	$35.71M	$37.22M	$38.78M	$387.8M
DCF		$23.27M	$21.09M	$19.11M	$17.31M	$15.69M	$14.22M	$12.88M	$11.67M	$10.58M	$9.587M	$95.87M
Value	$251.3M

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 8.3%

Earnings Stability 65%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	17%	19%	20%	25%	25%	28%	25%	21%	21%	21%
ROA	21%	26%	27%	34%	39%	32%	32%	36%	33%	33%
ROE	24%	25%	25%	160%	99%	58%	44%	44%	63%	82%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +24.24%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -1.06%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +34.19%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.41%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +77.51%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -18.52%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	0.43	0.27	0.09	1.23	1.07	0.95	0.76	1.01	1.97	1.66
Debt Equity	0.11	0.08	0.02	2.18	1.18	0.54	0.36	0.37	0.90	1.15
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	89%	87%	87%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.66.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.10.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.87.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	4.5%	4.4%	3.7%	-2%	-0.43%
Net Income	6.1%	0.6%	-5.9%	-2.6%	-2.2%
Stockholders Equity	-7.2%	21%	-8.7%	-32%	1.2%
FCF	-0.34%	-8%	-15%	-15%	-2.9%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.42%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.43%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +0.6%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -2.19%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +20.73%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.24%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -7.99%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -2.92%.