Servicenow, Inc.

NOW

Services-Prepackaged Software

Mkt Cap

$135.7B

PE

85.55

Debt

$1.487B

Cash

$1.119B

EV

$136.1B

FCF

$2.378B

Market Cap

$135.7B

P/E Ratio

85.55

Debt

$1.487B

Cash

$1.119B

EV

$136.1B

FCF

$2.378B

ServiceNow, Inc. provides enterprise cloud computing solutions that defines, structures, consolidates, manages, and automates services for enterprises worldwide. The company operates the Now platform for workflow automation, artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotic process automation, process mining, performance analytics, electronic service catalogs and portals, configuration management systems, data benchmarking, encryption, and collaboration and development tools. It also provides information technology (IT) service management applications; IT service management product suite for enterprise's employees, customers, and partners; strategic portfolio management product suite; IT operations management product that connects a customer's physical and cloud-based IT infrastructure; IT asset management; and security operations that connects with internal and third party. In addition, the company offers integrated risk management product to manage risk and resilience; environmental, social and governance management product; human resources, legal, and workplace service delivery products; safe workplace suite products; customer service management product; and field service management applications. Further, it provides App Engine product; Automation Engine enables application to extend workflows; platform privacy and security product; procurement operations management suite; and professional and customer support services. The company serves government, financial services, healthcare, telecommunications, manufacturing, IT services, technology, oil and gas, education, and consumer products through direct sales team and resale partners. It has a strategic partnership with Celonis to help customers identify and prioritize processes that are suitable for automation. The company was formerly known as Service-now.com and changed its name to ServiceNow, Inc. in May 2012. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

Sector

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9/30/23
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3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Servicenow, Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$2.378B	$3.091B	$3.933B	$4.894B	$5.955B	$7.08B	$8.22B	$9.316B	$10.3B	$11.1B	$11.66B	$116.6B
DCF		$2.688B	$2.974B	$3.218B	$3.405B	$3.52B	$3.554B	$3.502B	$3.367B	$3.155B	$2.881B	$28.81B
Value	$61.08B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 73%

Earnings Stability -39%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2014	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Net Margin	-26%	-20%	-32%	-7.7%	-1%	18%	2.6%	3.9%	4.5%	19%
ROA	-10%	-9%	-20%	-2.8%	0.35%	1.7%	2.3%	2.4%	3%	5.6%
ROE	-42%	-35%	-120%	-26%	-2.4%	29%	4.2%	6.2%	6.5%	22%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +3.4%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.72%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +1.14%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +1.02%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +3.06%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +4.59%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2014	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	TTM
Debt FCF	5.25	2.08	9.34	2.38	1.13	0.77	1.20	0.88	0.68	0.63
Debt Equity	1.04	0.84	1.31	2.01	0.60	0.35	0.58	0.43	0.30	0.21
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	-	-	-	79%	96%	100%	79%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 0.63.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.25.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.79.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2015	12-2017	12-2019	12-2021	Trend
Revenue	33%	30%	28%	23%	-3.7%
Net Income	-	-	-20%	41%	61%
Stockholders Equity	37%	54%	33%	36%	4.6%
FCF	38%	35%	31%	21%	-29%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +30.24%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -3.73%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +61.15%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +53.83%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +4.58%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +34.57%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -28.6%.