Services-Prepackaged Software
ServiceNow, Inc. provides enterprise cloud computing solutions that defines, structures, consolidates, manages, and automates services for enterprises worldwide. The company operates the Now platform for workflow automation, artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotic process automation, process mining, performance analytics, electronic service catalogs and portals, configuration management systems, data benchmarking, encryption, and collaboration and development tools. It also provides information technology (IT) service management applications; IT service management product suite for enterprise's employees, customers, and partners; strategic portfolio management product suite; IT operations management product that connects a customer's physical and cloud-based IT infrastructure; IT asset management; and security operations that connects with internal and third party. In addition, the company offers integrated risk management product to manage risk and resilience; environmental, social and governance management product; human resources, legal, and workplace service delivery products; safe workplace suite products; customer service management product; and field service management applications. Further, it provides App Engine product; Automation Engine enables application to extend workflows; platform privacy and security product; procurement operations management suite; and professional and customer support services. The company serves government, financial services, healthcare, telecommunications, manufacturing, IT services, technology, oil and gas, education, and consumer products through direct sales team and resale partners. It has a strategic partnership with Celonis to help customers identify and prioritize processes that are suitable for automation. The company was formerly known as Service-now.com and changed its name to ServiceNow, Inc. in May 2012. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
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Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Servicenow, Inc.
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $3.173B | $4.125B | $5.248B | $6.531B | $7.946B | $9.446B | $10.97B | $12.43B | $13.74B | $14.81B | $15.55B | $155.5B |
DCF | $3.587B | $3.968B | $4.294B | $4.543B | $4.697B | $4.742B | $4.673B | $4.493B | $4.21B | $3.844B | $38.44B | |
Value | $81.49B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | -20% | -32% | -7.7% | -1% | 18% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 19% | 20% |
ROA | -9% | -20% | -2.8% | 0.35% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3% | 5.8% | 7.1% |
ROE | -35% | -120% | -26% | -2.4% | 29% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 23% | 24% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +7.9%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.77%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +2.58%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.89%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +11.1%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.67%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 2.08 | 9.34 | 2.38 | 1.13 | 0.77 | 1.20 | 0.88 | 0.68 | 0.55 | 0.47 |
Debt Equity | 0.84 | 1.31 | 2.01 | 0.60 | 0.35 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.18 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | - | - | - | 79% | 96% | 100% | 100% | 79% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 0.47.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.10.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.79.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 31% | 28% | 26% | 24% | -2.7% |
Net Income | - | - | 140% | 430% | 150% |
Stockholders Equity | 53% | 47% | 39% | 52% | 3% |
FCF | 75% | 36% | 26% | 24% | -30% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +28.02%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -2.69%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +148.81%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +47%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.05%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +35.75%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -30.25%.