![NHC Logo](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' width='18' height='18'><defs><linearGradient id="a" x1="3.349" x2="21.904" y1="3.122" y2="24.434" gradientUnits="userSpaceOnUse"><stop stop-color="%231A1E21"/><stop offset="1" stop-color="%2306060A"/></linearGradient></defs><path fill="url(%23a)" d="M0 0h18v18H0z"/><text x='50%' y='52%' dominant-baseline='middle' text-anchor='middle' font-size='5' font-family='sans-serif' fill='gray'>NHC</text></svg>)
National Healthcare Corp
NHC
Services-Skilled Nursing Care Facilities
Mkt Cap
$1.571BPE
19.59Debt
-Cash
$121.1MEV
-FCF
$79.79MP/E Ratio
19.59Debt
-Cash
$121.1MEV
-FCF
$79.79MCharts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":44699000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":46324000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":50538000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":55682000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":58699000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":67976000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":41871000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":138590000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":19977000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":65288000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":871683000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":906622000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":923580000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":963895000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":980349000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":996383000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1028217000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1074302000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1085738000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1141544000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.051278962650413054},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.051095164247062175},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.05471967777561229},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.05776770291369911},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.059875615724604196},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.06822276172917442},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.04072194877151419},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.1290046932799157},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.018399466537967722},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.05719271442887878}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1074123000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1045329000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1087447000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1096526000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1080948000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1286648000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1362132000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1403396000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1275450000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1310796000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":734148000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":630996000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":669611000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":703432000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":734457000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":779069000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":798260000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":908460000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":877514000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":910480000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.06088554351438674},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.07341409454259615},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.07547367053408621},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.07915761580365976},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.07992162917638473},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.08725286206998353},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.05245283491594217},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.15255487308191884},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.022765448756373118},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.07170723135049645}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.06331770197640307},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.06421518966755921},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.05567351788179102},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.049346755115701774},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.051876686020049065},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.03811298816770399},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.03535266772970608},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.036286978158695055},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.02500764436081383},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.04358725537764839}]}
National HealthCare Corporation operates, manages, and provides services to skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, independent living facilities, homecare and hospice agencies, and a behavioral health hospital. Its skilled nursing facilities offer licensed therapy services, nutrition services, social services, activities, and housekeeping and laundry services, as well as medical services prescribed by physicians; and rehabilitative services, such as physical, speech, respiratory, and occupational therapy for patients recovering from strokes, heart attacks, orthopedic conditions, neurological illnesses, or other illnesses, injuries, or disabilities. The company's medical specialty units comprise memory care units and sub-cute nursing units that provide specialized care and programs for persons with Alzheimer's or related disorders; and assisted living facilities offer personal care services and assistance with general activities of daily living, such as dressing, bathing, meal preparation, and medication management. It also offers independent living facilities that offer specially designed residential units for the active and ambulatory elderly and provide various ancillary services for residents, including restaurants, activity rooms and social areas; and behavioral health services to both adults and geriatric patients with psychiatric, emotional, and addictive disorders. In addition, the company operates homecare agencies that assist those who wish to stay at home or in assisted living residences but still require some degree of medical care or assistance with daily activities; hospice agencies that provides hospice and palliative care; and pharmacies, as well as managed care insurance solutions. Further, it offers management, accounting, and financial services; and leases its properties to third party operators. National HealthCare Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
Sector
DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of National Healthcare Corp
Value
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $79.79M | $87.62M | $95.74M | $104.1M | $112.7M | $121.3M | $130M | $138.5M | $146.9M | $155.1M | $162.8M | $1.628B |
| DCF | $76.19M | $72.4M | $68.46M | $64.41M | $60.31M | $56.18M | $52.08M | $48.04M | $44.08M | $40.25M | $402.5M | |
| Value | $984.9M | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth -0.06%
Earnings Stability 0.00084%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 13% | 1.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% |
| ROA | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% |
| ROE | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 15% | 2.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +6.22%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.21%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +3.84%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.23%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +7.78%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.38%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | 4.81 | 4.24 | 1.61 | 0.80 | 0.27 | 0.00 | - | - | - | - |
| Debt Equity | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.00 | - | - | - | - |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 69% | 100% | 24% | 98% | 24% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.40.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.24.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 0.064% |
| Net Income | 3.7% | 2.2% | 16% | 230% | 17% |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 0.97% |
| FCF | 17% | 3.9% | -23% | - | -2.5% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.09%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.06%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +2.15%.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +16.77%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.39%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.97%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.94%.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -2.5%.