Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc.

Consumer Staples
Food Chains
www.naturalgrocers.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score
Final Score

Market Cap $994.21M
PE 32
Debt $1.69M
Cash $13.92M
EV $981.99M
FCF $33.38M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$30.81M
EBIT	$42.65M
ROE	18%
ROA	7%
FCF	$33.38M
Equity	$167.80M
Growth Stability	91%
PE	32.27
PEG	1.85
PB	5.92
P/FCF	29.78
P/S	0.82
Price/Cash	0.01
Debt/Equity	0.01
Debt/FCF	0.05
Net Margins	3%
Gross Margins	29%
Op. Margins	4%
Earnings CAGR	14%
Sales Growth YoY	10%
Sales Growth QoQ	0%
Sales CAGR	7%
FCF CAGR	14%
Equity CAGR	4%
Earnings Stability	0.59
Earnings Growth YoY	30%
Earnings Growth QoQ	16%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	17%

Sales CAGR 5Y	5%
FCF CAGR 5Y	1%
Equity CAGR 5Y	1%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	5%
Sales CAGR 3Y	5%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-2%
Equity CAGR 3Y	4%
Market Cap	$994.21M
Revenue	$1.21B
Dividend Yield	3%
Payout Ratio	103%
Assets	$654.39M
Total Debt	$1.69M
Cash	$13.92M
Shares Outstanding	22.77M
EV	981.99M
Earnings Score	83%
Moat Score	80%
Safety Score	98%
Final Score	87%
Working Capital	-6.32M
Current Ratio	0.96
Gross Profit	$353.79M
Shares Growth 3y	0%
Equity Growth QoQ	5%
Equity Growth YoY	1%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc operates natural and organic grocery and dietary supplement stores. It offers the following product categories, natural and organic food, dietary supplements, natural body care, household, and pet care products. The company generates the majority of its revenue from grocery products and dietary supplements, with the rest from body-care and pet-care products and others.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-Q Dec 31
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-Q Dec 31
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 14%

Stability 59%

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Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= $881M

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$33M	$38M	$43M	$49M	$56M	$64M	$73M	$83M	$95M	$108M	$123M	$1.2B
DCF		$35M	$36M	$37M	$38M	$40M	$41M	$43M	$44M	$46M	$47M	$474M
Value	$881M

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	09/2015	09/2016	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	TTM
Net Margins	3%	2%	1%	1%	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%	3%
ROA	-	7%	5%	5%	5%	4%	4%	5%	5%	7%
ROE	-	9%	5%	9%	6%	12%	14%	14%	14%	18%

Bad Net Margins (2.71%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	09/2015	09/2016	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	-	-	-	-	0	0.86	1.35	0.27	0.05
Debt over Equity	-	-	-	-	-	0	0.17	0.1	0.05	0.01
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	91%	100%	100%	100%	100%	91%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (0.05)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.01)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Good Graham’s Stability (91%)

The company has a good stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a good competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	09/2015	09/2016	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	13%	9%	10%	6%	15%	2%	3%	5%	5%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-29%	-40%	84%	-26%	113%	3%	4%	9%	17%
Equity YoY growth	-	10%	6%	10%	7%	10%	-18%	9%	10%	1%
FCF YoY growth	-	-686%	-98%	-5K%	-62%	441%	-31%	-58%	141%	1%