Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
NGVC
Retail-Grocery Stores
Mkt Cap
$477.6MPE
16.66Debt
$3.688MCash
$10.97MEV
$470.4MFCF
$24.82MP/E Ratio
16.66Debt
$3.688MCash
$10.97MEV
$470.4MFCF
$24.82MCharts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-09-29","value":13473000},{"time":"2015-09-29","value":16204000},{"time":"2016-09-29","value":11471000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":6891000},{"time":"2018-09-29","value":12661000},{"time":"2019-09-29","value":9416000},{"time":"2020-09-29","value":20009000},{"time":"2021-09-29","value":20581000},{"time":"2022-09-29","value":21365000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":23243000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-09-29","value":520674000},{"time":"2015-09-29","value":624678000},{"time":"2016-09-29","value":705499000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":769030000},{"time":"2018-09-29","value":849042000},{"time":"2019-09-29","value":903582000},{"time":"2020-09-29","value":1036842000},{"time":"2021-09-29","value":1055516000},{"time":"2022-09-29","value":1089625000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":1140568000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-09-29","value":0.025876076009172726},{"time":"2015-09-29","value":0.02593976416649858},{"time":"2016-09-29","value":0.016259413549842026},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.008960638726707671},{"time":"2018-09-29","value":0.014912100932580484},{"time":"2019-09-29","value":0.0104207476465888},{"time":"2020-09-29","value":0.019298022263758607},{"time":"2021-09-29","value":0.019498520155071076},{"time":"2022-09-29","value":0.01960766318687622},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.020378443021371807}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-09-29","value":188985000},{"time":"2015-09-29","value":233924000},{"time":"2016-09-29","value":282246000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":299991000},{"time":"2018-09-29","value":307083000},{"time":"2019-09-29","value":327114000},{"time":"2020-09-29","value":681792000},{"time":"2021-09-29","value":655079000},{"time":"2022-09-29","value":663108000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":669185000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-09-29","value":98854000},{"time":"2015-09-29","value":115488000},{"time":"2016-09-29","value":126725000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":133883000},{"time":"2018-09-29","value":146726000},{"time":"2019-09-29","value":156906000},{"time":"2020-09-29","value":173066000},{"time":"2021-09-29","value":142731000},{"time":"2022-09-29","value":155812000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":170841000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-09-29","value":0.13629190523398144},{"time":"2015-09-29","value":0.14030894984760323},{"time":"2016-09-29","value":0.09051884000789111},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.051470313632051866},{"time":"2018-09-29","value":0.08629009173561604},{"time":"2019-09-29","value":0.06001045211782851},{"time":"2020-09-29","value":0.11561485213733488},{"time":"2021-09-29","value":0.14419432358772796},{"time":"2022-09-29","value":0.13712037583754783},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.1360504796857897}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-09-29","value":0.12831706220070377},{"time":"2015-09-29","value":0.12238590311383184},{"time":"2016-09-29","value":0.07220297187559788},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.0469947431756286},{"time":"2018-09-29","value":0.049019320509438816},{"time":"2019-09-29","value":0.05125430278129337},{"time":"2020-09-29","value":0.04070009621702807},{"time":"2021-09-29","value":0.04324211278334369},{"time":"2022-09-29","value":0.04547524686778021},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.047324730829292345}]}
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; bulk food products; private label products comprising pasta, pasta sauce, ketchup, canned beans and vegetables, frozen vegetables, frozen fruits, frozen meals, frozen pizza, bread, baking mixes, plant based butter, olive and coconut oil, coconut milk, honey, maple syrup, preserves, chocolate, coffee, bacon, beef jerky, canned seafood, popcorn, tortilla chips, taco shells, eggs, cheese, apple sauce, apple cider vinegar, spring water, paper products, cleaning products, and other products; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide private label dietary supplements; body care products consisting of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; books and handouts; and household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark. The company also offers science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.
DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
Value
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $24.82M | $29.44M | $34.48M | $39.85M | $45.46M | $51.16M | $56.82M | $62.24M | $67.23M | $71.61M | $75.19M | $751.9M |
| DCF | $25.6M | $26.07M | $26.2M | $25.99M | $25.44M | $24.56M | $23.4M | $21.98M | $20.36M | $18.59M | $185.9M | |
| Value | $424M | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 18%
Earnings Stability 36%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 09-2015 | 09-2016 | 09-2017 | 09-2018 | 09-2019 | 09-2020 | 09-2021 | 09-2022 | 09-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2% | 2% | 2.4% |
| ROA | 12% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% |
| ROE | 14% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 18% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.74%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.16%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +4.62%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.07%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +11.32%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.45%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 09-2015 | 09-2016 | 09-2017 | 09-2018 | 09-2019 | 09-2020 | 09-2021 | 09-2022 | 09-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | - | - | - | - | - | 0.00 | 0.86 | 1.35 | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| Debt Equity | - | - | - | - | - | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 50% | 100% | 91% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 50% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 0.15.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.13.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.50.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 09-2016 | 09-2018 | 09-2020 | 09-2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.1% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | -1.7% |
| Net Income | 11% | 13% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.4% | 3.1% | -0.43% | 9.6% | -1.3% |
| FCF | - | 7.9% | -11% | 140% | -9.4% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.08%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.67%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +12.92%.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.79%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.09%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.27%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +7.93%.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -9.4%.