Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc.

Consumer Staples
Food Chains
www.naturalgrocers.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score
Final Score

Market Cap $1.12B
PE 31
Debt $8.90M
Cash $6.32M
EV $1.13B
FCF $24.39M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$36.12M
EBIT	$49.52M
ROE	20%
ROA	8%
FCF	$24.39M
Equity	$181.88M
Growth Stability	91%
PE	31.09
PEG	2.34
PB	6.17
P/FCF	46.03
P/S	0.88
Price/Cash	0.01
Debt/Equity	0.05
Debt/FCF	0.36
Net Margins	3%
Gross Margins	30%
Op. Margins	4%
Earnings CAGR	16%
Sales Growth YoY	9%
Sales Growth QoQ	2%
Sales CAGR	6%
FCF CAGR	12%
Equity CAGR	4%
Earnings Stability	0.66
Earnings Growth YoY	28%
Earnings Growth QoQ	10%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	13%

Sales CAGR 5Y	5%
FCF CAGR 5Y	-7%
Equity CAGR 5Y	3%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	6%
Sales CAGR 3Y	6%
FCF CAGR 3Y	17%
Equity CAGR 3Y	5%
Market Cap	$1.12B
Revenue	$1.27B
Dividend Yield	1%
Payout Ratio	27%
Assets	$648.88M
Total Debt	$8.90M
Cash	$6.32M
Shares Outstanding	22.9M
EV	1.13B
Earnings Score	89%
Moat Score	83%
Safety Score	97%
Final Score	90%
Working Capital	-5.6M
Current Ratio	0.96
Gross Profit	$374.87M
Shares Growth 3y	0%
Equity Growth QoQ	4%
Equity Growth YoY	18%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc operates natural and organic grocery and dietary supplement stores. It offers the following product categories, natural and organic food, dietary supplements, natural body care, household, and pet care products. The company generates the majority of its revenue from grocery products and dietary supplements, with the rest from body-care and pet-care products and others.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Dec 31
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2023
- 10-Q Dec 31
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31
2022
- 10-Q Dec 31
- 10-K Sep 30
- 10-Q Jun 30
- 10-Q Mar 31

Sector Comparison

How does Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc. compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc. compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 16%

Stability 66%

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Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc..

Years

Calculation mode

= $559M

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$24M	$27M	$31M	$34M	$38M	$43M	$48M	$54M	$60M	$67M	$75M	$753M
DCF		$25M	$25M	$26M	$26M	$27M	$27M	$28M	$28M	$29M	$29M	$290M
Value	$559M

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	09/2015	09/2016	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	TTM
Net Margins	3%	2%	1%	1%	1%	2%	2%	2%	2%	3%	3%
ROA	-	7%	5%	5%	5%	4%	4%	5%	5%	7%	8%
ROE	-	9%	5%	9%	6%	12%	14%	14%	14%	19%	20%

Bad Net Margins (3.01%)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	09/2015	09/2016	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	-	-	-	-	0	0.86	1.35	0.27	0	0.36
Debt over Equity	-	-	-	-	-	0	0.17	0.1	0.05	0	0.05
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	91%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	91%

Good Debt/FCF ratio (0.36)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Good Debt/Equity ratio (0.05)

The company is not overleveraged and has a good balance between equity and debt.

Good Graham’s Stability (91%)

The company has a good stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a good competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	09/2015	09/2016	09/2017	09/2018	09/2019	09/2020	09/2021	09/2022	09/2023	09/2024	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	13%	9%	10%	6%	15%	2%	3%	5%	9%	5%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-29%	-40%	84%	-26%	113%	3%	4%	9%	46%	13%
Equity YoY growth	-	10%	6%	10%	7%	10%	-18%	9%	10%	2%	3%
FCF YoY growth	-	-686%	-98%	-5K%	-62%	441%	-31%	-58%	141%	29%	-7%