National Fuel Gas Co
NFG
Natural Gas Distribution
Mkt Cap
$4.655BPE
9.76Debt
$2.672BCash
$55.45MEV
$7.271BFCF
$227.2MP/E Ratio
9.76Debt
$2.672BCash
$55.45MEV
$7.271BFCF
$227.2MNational Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Gathering, and Utility. The Exploration and Production segment explores for, develops, and produces natural gas and oil in California and in the Appalachian region of the United States. As of September 30, 2022, it had proved developed and undeveloped reserves of 4,170,662 MMcf of natural gas and 250 Mbbl of oil. The Pipeline and Storage segment provides interstate natural gas transportation and storage services through an integrated gas pipeline system in Pennsylvania and New York; and owns and operates underground natural gas storage fields. This segment also transports natural gas for National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation, as well as for other utilities, industrial companies, and power producers in New York State. The Gathering segment builds, owns, and operates natural gas processing and pipeline gathering facilities in the Appalachian region, as well as provides gathering services to Seneca. The Utility segment sells natural gas or provides natural gas utility services to approximately 754,000 customers in Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Jamestown, New York; and Erie and Sharon, Pennsylvania. National Fuel Gas Company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Williamsville, New York.
![LNG Logo](data:image/svg+xml,<svg xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg' width='18' height='18'><defs><linearGradient id="a" x1="3.349" x2="21.904" y1="3.122" y2="24.434" gradientUnits="userSpaceOnUse"><stop stop-color="%231A1E21"/><stop offset="1" stop-color="%2306060A"/></linearGradient></defs><path fill="url(%23a)" d="M0 0h18v18H0z"/><text x='50%' y='52%' dominant-baseline='middle' text-anchor='middle' font-size='5' font-family='sans-serif' fill='gray'>LNG</text></svg>){kind=small}
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DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of National Fuel Gas Co
Value
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $227.2M | $224.7M | $222.2M | $219.7M | $217.2M | $214.8M | $212.4M | $210M | $207.7M | $205.3M | $203.1M | $2.031B |
| DCF | $195.4M | $168M | $144.4M | $124.2M | $106.8M | $91.82M | $78.95M | $67.89M | $58.37M | $50.19M | $501.9M | |
| Value | $1.588B | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 6.7%
Earnings Stability -21%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 09-2015 | 09-2016 | 09-2017 | 09-2018 | 09-2019 | 09-2020 | 09-2021 | 09-2022 | 09-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | - | -20% | 18% | 25% | 18% | -8% | 21% | 26% | 22% | 22% |
| ROA | -9.1% | -7.4% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 0.43% | 8.6% | 10% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| ROE | -19% | -19% | 17% | 20% | 14% | -6.3% | 20% | 27% | 16% | 16% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +17.21%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.13%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +7.4%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.59%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +15.3%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.29%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 09-2015 | 09-2016 | 09-2017 | 09-2018 | 09-2019 | 09-2020 | 09-2021 | 09-2022 | 09-2023 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | -12.75 | 283.53 | 11.46 | 68.10 | -23.17 | 107.87 | 70.00 | 4577.57 | 11.76 | 11.76 |
| Debt Equity | 1.04 | 1.37 | 1.58 | 1.10 | 1.02 | 1.35 | 1.56 | 1.53 | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | - | - | 100% | -38% | 100% | 100% | 100% | -38% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 11.76.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 385.22.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.38.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 09-2016 | 09-2018 | 09-2020 | 09-2022 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.9% | 6.4% | 12% | -0.56% | 0.99% |
| Net Income | - | 4% | - | -16% | -1% |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.9% | 8.9% | 15% | 42% | 4.9% |
| FCF | 63% | 49% | 110% | 33K% | 3K% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.42%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.99%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.02%.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.04%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.87%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +4.89%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +48.65%.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.04K%.