Industrial Organic Chemicals
NewMarket Corporation, through its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the manufacture and sale of petroleum additives. The company offers lubricant additives for use in various vehicle and industrial applications, including engine oils, transmission fluids, off-road powertrain and hydraulic systems, gear oils, hydraulic oils, turbine oils, and other applications where metal-to-metal moving parts are utilized; engine oil additives designed for passenger cars, motorcycles, on and off-road heavy duty commercial equipment, locomotives, and engines in ocean-going vessels; driveline additives designed for products, such as transmission fluids, axle fluids, and off-road powertrain fluids; and industrial additives designed for products for industrial applications consisting of hydraulic fluids, grease, industrial gear fluids, and industrial specialty applications, such as turbine oils. It also provides fuel additives that are used to enhance the oil refining process and the performance of gasoline, diesel, biofuels, and other fuels to industry, government, original equipment manufacturers, and individual customers. In addition, the company engages in the marketing of antiknock compounds, as well as contracted manufacturing and services activities; and owns and manages a real property in Virginia. It operates in North America, Latin America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India. NewMarket Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Newmarket Corp
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $494M | $529.5M | $566.3M | $604.2M | $643.2M | $683.2M | $724M | $765.5M | $807.5M | $849.8M | $892.3M | $8.923B |
DCF | $460.4M | $428.2M | $397.3M | $367.8M | $339.7M | $313M | $287.8M | $264M | $241.6M | $220.6M | $2.206B | |
Value | $5.526B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 11% | 12% | 8.7% | 10% | 12% | 13% | 8.1% | 10% | 14% | 15% |
ROA | 28% | 26% | 20% | 17% | 18% | 17% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 16% |
ROE | 62% | 50% | 32% | 48% | 37% | 36% | 25% | 37% | 36% | 35% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +11.3%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.31%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +16.38%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.09%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +36.34%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -2.05%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 3.49 | 2.47 | 15.23 | 6.25 | 2.59 | 3.48 | 50.03 | 25.07 | 1.28 | 2.59 |
Debt Equity | 1.28 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 1.57 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 1.95 | 1.32 | 0.60 | 1.11 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 80% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 75% | 100% | 100% | 75% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 2.59.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 2.55.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.75.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 4% | 3.3% | 10% | -2.4% | 1.6% |
Net Income | 6.9% | 11% | 13% | 39% | 4.1% |
Stockholders Equity | 12% | 17% | 12% | 41% | 1.7% |
FCF | 14% | 32% | 43% | 1.2K% | 74% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +3.34%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.6%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +10.59%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +4.13%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +17.06%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.74%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +32.46%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +73.7%.