Neurocrine Biosciences Inc

NBIX

Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)

Mkt Cap

$14.02B

PE

37.92

Debt

$122.8M

Cash

$404.3M

EV

$13.74B

FCF

$614.4M

Market Cap

$14.02B

P/E Ratio

37.92

Debt

$122.8M

Cash

$404.3M

EV

$13.74B

FCF

$614.4M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-60542000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-88929000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-141090000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":-142542000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":21111000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":37012000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":407300000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":89600000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":154500000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":249700000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":19769000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":15000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":161626000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":451240000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":788087000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1045900000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1133500000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1488700000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1887100000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-4.498406596185948},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-9.406},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":-0.8819249378194103},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.04678441627515291},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.04696435799600805},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.38942537527488286},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.07904719894133215},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.10378182306710552},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.132319431932595}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":243033000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":474785000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":365086000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":817591000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":993151000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1306040000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1734700000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":2072500000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2368700000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":3251400000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":208699000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":424454000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":314877000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":372138000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":480765000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":636923000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1126200000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1374000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1707800000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2232000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-0.2900924297672725},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.2095138695830408},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.44807972636934423},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":-0.3830353256050175},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.04391126641914449},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.05811063503751631},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.3616586751909075},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.06521106259097526},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.09046726782995666},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.11187275985663082}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-0.2650298519131147},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.19840980654401466},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.3864568896095714},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":-0.16066835373677057},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.037149436490523595},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.055345165538574624},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.09396437424338502},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.04945717732207479},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.10512095242115929},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.10214061634988005}]}

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and markets pharmaceuticals for neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric disorders. The company's portfolio includes treatments for tardive dyskinesia, Parkinson's disease, endometriosis, and uterine fibroids, as well as clinical programs in various therapeutic areas. Its products include INGREZZA and DYSVAL, for the treatment of tardive dyskinesia. The company's commercial products include ONGENTYS, used as an adjunctive therapy to levodopa/DOPA decarboxylase inhibitors for patients with Parkinson's disease; ORILISSA for the management of moderate to severe endometriosis pain in women; and ORIAHNN, a non-surgical oral medication option for the management of heavy menstrual bleeding associated with uterine fibroids in pre-menopausal women, as well as ALKINDI SPRINKLE, for the treatment of pediatric adrenal insufficiency. Its product candidates in clinical development include NBI-921352 for treating pediatric patients, as well as adult focal epilepsy indications; and NBI-827104 to treat rare pediatric epilepsy and essential tremor. The company's products in clinical development also comprise NBI-1065845 for the treatment of major depressive disorder; NBI-1065846 for treating anhedonia in major depressive disorder; and NBI-1117568 for the treatment of schizophrenia. It has license and collaboration agreements with Heptares Therapeutics Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Idorsia Pharmaceuticals Ltd; Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.; Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.; BIAL Portela & Ca, S.A.; Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation; Sentia Medical Sciences Inc.; and AbbVie Inc. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

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DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$614.4M	$798.7M	$1.016B	$1.265B	$1.539B	$1.829B	$2.124B	$2.407B	$2.661B	$2.868B	$3.011B	$30.11B
DCF		$694.5M	$768.4M	$831.5M	$879.7M	$909.4M	$918.2M	$904.9M	$869.9M	$815.3M	$744.4M	$7.444B
Value	$15.78B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 44%

Earnings Stability -23%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	-450%	-940%	-88%	4.7%	4.7%	39%	7.9%	10%	13%	19%
ROA	-20%	-39%	-16%	3.7%	5.5%	9.4%	4.9%	11%	10%	15%
ROE	-21%	-45%	-38%	4.4%	5.8%	36%	6.5%	9%	11%	15%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +13.31%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.82%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +7.39%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +1.23%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +12.19%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.4%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-	0.00	-3.65	5.07	5.95	1.46	1.44	0.52	0.47	0.20
Debt Equity	-	0.00	0.99	0.81	1.28	0.28	0.24	0.10	0.08	0.05
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	-	-	-	58%	87%	100%	58%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 0.20.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -1.12.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.58.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	100%	33%	22%	27%	-59%
Net Income	-	64%	-15%	62%	-96%
Stockholders Equity	32%	36%	26%	31%	-1.4%
FCF	-	36%	18%	12%	-15%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +33.13%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -58.68%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +63.9%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -95.54%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +35.94%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.42%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +36.41%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -15.47%.