Msa Safety Inc

MSA

Orthopedic, Prosthetic & Surgical Appliances & Supplies

Mkt Cap

$7.146B

PE

26.78

Debt

$622.6M

Cash

$150.3M

EV

$7.618B

FCF

$384.1M

Market Cap

$7.146B

P/E Ratio

26.78

Debt

$622.6M

Cash

$150.3M

EV

$7.618B

FCF

$384.1M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":87927000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":67944000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":91936000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":26027000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":124150000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":136440000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":120101000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":21299000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":179589000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":58542000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1136650000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1129922000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1149530000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1196809000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1358104000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1401981000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1348223000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1400182000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1527953000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1787647000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.07735626622091234},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.06013158430404931},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.0799770340921942},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.021746995552339596},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.09141420686486455},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.09731943585540745},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.08908096064226764},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.01521159392136165},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.11753568336198823},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.03274807610227299}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1264792000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1424818000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1353920000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1684826000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1608012000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1739693000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1872484000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":2396396000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2376976000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2170150000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":538633000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":517128000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":561212000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":602578000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":639519000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":732573000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":809891000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":834388000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":923741000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":966802000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.16324101939539537},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.13138720007425628},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.1638168820338838},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.043192748490651835},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.194130276035583},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.18624765040480606},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.14829279495635833},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.02552649366961174},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.1944148846917047},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.06055221234544405}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.10835457529775647},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.0861450374714525},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.12432196880170172},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.026789116502238215},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.11269567640042487},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.11342460997428856},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.09214230936018679},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.009849791102972964},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.10060555933253007},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.10659171025044352}]}

MSA Safety Incorporated develops, manufactures, and supplies safety products and software that protect people and facility infrastructures in the oil, gas, petrochemical, fire service, construction, industrial manufacturing applications, heating, ventilation, air conditioning and refrigeration, utilities, military, and mining industries in North America, Latin America, and internationally. The company's core product offerings include permanently installed fixed gas and flame detection instruments, such as permanently installed gas detection monitoring systems, and flame detectors and open-path infrared gas detectors, as well as replacement components and related services to detect the presence or absence of various gases in the air. Its core product offerings also comprise breathing apparatus products, such as self-contained breathing apparatus; hand-held portable gas detection instruments; industrial head protection products; firefighter helmets and protective apparel; and fall protection equipment, including confined space equipment, harnesses, lanyards, and self-retracting lifelines, as well as engineered systems. In addition, the company offers air-purifying respirators, eye and face protection products, ballistic helmets, and gas masks. It serves distributors and end-users through indirect and direct sales channels. The company offers its product under the V-Gard, Cairns, and Gallet brand names. MSA Safety Incorporated was founded in 1914 and is based in Cranberry Township, Pennsylvania.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
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6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
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3/31/22
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12/31/21
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10-K
12/31/19
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3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Msa Safety Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$384.1M	$436.7M	$492.2M	$550.1M	$609.5M	$669.4M	$728.7M	$786.3M	$840.8M	$890.9M	$935.5M	$9.355B
DCF		$379.7M	$372.2M	$361.7M	$348.5M	$332.8M	$315M	$295.6M	$274.8M	$253.3M	$231.2M	$2.312B
Value	$5.477B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth -2.6%

Earnings Stability 1.1%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	6%	8%	2.2%	9.1%	9.7%	8.9%	1.5%	12%	3.3%	15%
ROA	8.6%	12%	2.7%	11%	11%	9.2%	0.98%	10%	11%	17%
ROE	13%	16%	4.3%	19%	19%	15%	2.6%	19%	6.1%	27%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +7.39%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.88%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +8.92%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.43%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +13.49%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -2.19%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	24.89	3.81	2.43	1.66	2.87	2.08	3.85	5.05	12.54	1.62
Debt Equity	0.92	0.74	0.83	0.60	0.50	0.40	0.72	0.63	0.65	0.63
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	32%	100%	100%	100%	17%	100%	55%	17%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.62.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 1.79.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.17.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	6.5%	5.7%	9.9%	17%	1.2%
Net Income	-6.2%	-14%	-21%	-67%	26%
Stockholders Equity	8.1%	8.6%	6.1%	4.7%	0.62%
FCF	-11%	-26%	-32%	-56%	-27%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +5.65%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.24%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -13.96%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +25.58%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.62%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.62%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -26.27%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -26.7%.