Marathon Petroleum Corp

MPC

Petroleum Refining

Mkt Cap

$64.75B

PE

8.21

Debt

$27.29B

Cash

$3.177B

EV

$88.86B

FCF

$9.574B

Market Cap

$64.75B

P/E Ratio

8.21

Debt

$27.29B

Cash

$3.177B

EV

$88.86B

FCF

$9.574B

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":2520000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":2848000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1173000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":3430000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2779000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2636000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-9977000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":9736000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":14508000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":9672000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":97817000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":72051000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":63277000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":74104000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":95750000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":123949000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":69779000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":119983000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":177453000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":148379000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.02576239304006461},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.0395275568694397},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.018537541286723455},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.0462863003346648},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.02902349869451697},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.021266811349829367},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.14297997965003797},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.08114482885075386},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.08175685956281381},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.06518442636761267}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":30460000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":43115000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":44413000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":49047000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":92940000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":98556000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":85158000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":85373000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":89904000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":85987000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":11390000000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":19675000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":20203000000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":20828000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":44049000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":42139000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":29252000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":32616000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":34119000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":30504000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.2212467076382792},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.14475222363405338},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.05806068405682324},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.16468215863260996},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.06308883289064451},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.06255487790407936},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.3410706960207849},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.2985038018150601},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.42521762068055924},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.3170731707317073}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.1329940906106369},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.10882523483706366},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.05354288158872402},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.0809223805737354},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.059941897998708846},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.05657697146799789},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.14381502618661782},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.05036721211624284},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.2387991635522335},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.16879295707490669}]}

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products, including renewable diesel, through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane, petrochemicals, and natural gas liquids. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. The company was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
9/30/22
10-Q
6/30/22
10-Q
3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
10-Q
9/30/21
10-Q
6/30/21
10-Q
3/31/21
10-K
12/31/20
10-Q
9/30/20
10-Q
6/30/20
10-Q
3/31/20
10-K
12/31/19
10-Q
9/30/19
10-Q
6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Marathon Petroleum Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$9.574B	$12.45B	$15.83B	$19.7B	$23.97B	$28.5B	$33.09B	$37.51B	$41.47B	$44.69B	$46.93B	$469.3B
DCF		$10.82B	$11.97B	$12.96B	$13.71B	$14.17B	$14.31B	$14.1B	$13.56B	$12.7B	$11.6B	$116B
Value	$245.9B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 29%

Earnings Stability 62%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	4%	1.9%	4.6%	2.9%	2.1%	-14%	8.1%	8.2%	6.5%	5.4%
ROA	11%	5.4%	8.1%	6%	5.7%	-14%	5%	24%	17%	14%
ROE	14%	5.8%	16%	6.3%	6.3%	-34%	30%	43%	32%	27%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +2.26%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.68%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +7.18%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +3.67%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +13.76%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +8.56%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	5.78	9.66	3.34	10.67	7.09	-85.83	3.69	1.92	2.23	2.85
Debt Equity	0.61	0.52	0.62	0.62	0.68	1.08	0.78	0.78	0.89	0.93
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	-340%	-	100%	100%	-340%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 2.85.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.91.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -3.38.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	13%	9.2%	29%	-16%	4.3%
Net Income	35%	28%	-	-33%	-3.1%
Stockholders Equity	6.1%	-7.1%	1.4%	-11%	-7.5%
FCF	41%	37%	-	-12%	-0.68%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +9.16%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +4.28%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +28.33%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -3.14%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -7.09%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -7.55%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +36.5%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.68%.