Marathon Petroleum Corp
MPC
Petroleum Refining
Mkt Cap
$62.73BPE
5.44Debt
$27.28BCash
$8.456BEV
$81.56BFCF
$15.25BP/E Ratio
5.44Debt
$27.28BCash
$8.456BEV
$81.56BFCF
$15.25BMarathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products, including renewable diesel, through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane, petrochemicals, and natural gas liquids. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. The company was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Marathon Petroleum Corp
Value
Growth
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%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $15.25B | $19.59B | $24.67B | $30.41B | $36.69B | $43.31B | $50B | $56.42B | $62.19B | $66.92B | $70.26B | $702.6B |
| DCF | $17.04B | $18.65B | $19.99B | $20.98B | $21.53B | $21.62B | $21.21B | $20.33B | $19.02B | $17.37B | $173.7B | |
| Value | $371.4B | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 28%
Earnings Stability 57%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | 2.6% | 4% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | -14% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% |
| ROA | 13% | 11% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 6% | 5.7% | -14% | 5% | 24% | 19% |
| ROE | 22% | 14% | 5.8% | 16% | 6.3% | 6.3% | -34% | 30% | 43% | 36% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.94%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.48%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +5.71%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +1.6%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +11.22%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +4.59%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | 4.07 | 5.78 | 9.66 | 3.34 | 10.67 | 7.09 | -85.83 | 3.69 | 1.92 | 1.79 |
| Debt Equity | 0.58 | 0.61 | 0.52 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.68 | 1.08 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.86 |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 47% | 100% | 100% | 100% | -340% | - | 100% | -340% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.79.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -3.46.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -3.38.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2017 | 12-2019 | 12-2021 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 14% | 19% | 13% | 48% | 7.4% |
| Net Income | 26% | 33% | 77% | 49% | 3.1% |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.2% | 10% | -6.8% | 4.6% | -4% |
| FCF | 31% | 29% | 51% | 100% | 13% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +19.08%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +7.42%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +33.43%.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.12%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +10.37%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -4.02%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +29.17%.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +13.02%.