Misc Industrial & Commercial Machinery & Equipment
Moog Inc. designs, manufactures, and integrates precision motion and fluid controls and controls systems for original equipment manufacturers and end users in the aerospace, defense, and industrial markets worldwide. The company's Aircraft Controls segment offers primary and secondary flight controls, and avionics for military and commercial aircraft; and aftermarket support services. Its Space and Defense Controls segment provides controls for space vehicles, launch vehicles, military vehicles, tactical and strategic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and other defense applications; and gun aiming, stabilization, and automatic ammunition loading for armored combat vehicles. This segment also offers controls for steering tactical and strategic missiles; naval vessels including surface ships, unmanned undersea vehicles, and submarines; and weapons stores management systems for light attack aerial reconnaissance, ground, and sea platforms. The company's Industrial Systems segment provides components and systems for applications in injection and blow molding machinery, metal forming presses, and heavy industry customers in steel and aluminum production; supplies electromechanical motion simulation bases for the flight simulation and training applications; and supplies solutions for power generation applications, as well as custom test systems and controls for automotive, structural, and fatigue testing. This segment also offers systems and components for applications in oil and gas exploration and production; components for wind turbine applications; components and systems for diagnostic imaging CT scan medical equipment, sleep apnea equipment, oxygen concentrators, infusion therapy, and enteral clinical nutrition; and hydraulics, slip rings, rotary unions and fiber optic rotary joints, motors, and infusion and enteral pumps. The company was incorporated in 1951 and is headquartered in East Aurora, New York.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Moog Inc.
Growth
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%
Discount
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%
Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $24.27M | $21.25M | $18.61M | $16.3M | $14.27M | $12.5M | $10.95M | $9.586M | $8.394M | $7.351M | $6.438M | $64.38M |
DCF | $18.48M | $14.07M | $10.72M | $8.16M | $6.214M | $4.732M | $3.604M | $2.744M | $2.09M | $1.591M | $15.91M | |
Value | $88.32M |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 10-2015 | 09-2016 | 09-2017 | 09-2018 | 09-2019 | 10-2020 | 10-2021 | 09-2022 | 09-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 0.32% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% |
ROA | 8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9% | 9.4% |
ROE | 13% | 13% | 12% | 7.9% | 14% | 0.74% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 11% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +4.31%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.28%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +8.48%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.1%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +9.12%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.43%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 10-2015 | 09-2016 | 09-2017 | 09-2018 | 09-2019 | 10-2020 | 10-2021 | 09-2022 | 09-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 4.24 | 6.81 | 6.77 | 109.57 | 13.23 | 4.92 | 6.02 | 7.85 | -23.23 | 39.23 |
Debt Equity | 1.08 | 1.02 | 0.79 | 0.71 | 0.63 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.54 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 73% | 100% | 6.6% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 6.6% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 39.23.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -19.40.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.07.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 09-2016 | 09-2018 | 10-2020 | 09-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 9.3% | 1.2% |
Net Income | 4.7% | 12% | 160% | 10% | 54% |
Stockholders Equity | 7.5% | 6% | 9.6% | 14% | 2.4% |
FCF | - | - | - | - | 14% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.14%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.17%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +12.12%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +54.12%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +5.96%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.38%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +13.78%.