Moog Inc.

MOG-A

Misc Industrial & Commercial Machinery & Equipment

Mkt Cap

$5.438B

PE

28.65

Debt

$952M

Cash

$59.73M

EV

$6.33B

FCF

$24.27M

Market Cap

$5.438B

P/E Ratio

28.65

Debt

$952M

Cash

$59.73M

EV

$6.33B

FCF

$24.27M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":158198000},{"time":"2015-10-02","value":131883000},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":123633000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":140410000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":96507000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":179748000},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":9205000},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":157220000},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":155177000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":170998000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":2648385000},{"time":"2015-10-02","value":2525532000},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":2411937000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":2497524000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":2709468000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":2904663000},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":2884554000},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":2851993000},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":3035783000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":3319122000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":0.05973376227398962},{"time":"2015-10-02","value":0.052219888720475525},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":0.05125880153586101},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.056219679971043324},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":0.035618431367338534},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":0.06188256606704461},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":0.0031911345740104017},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":0.05512636251210995},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":0.05111597238669562},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.05151904630200396}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":3208452000},{"time":"2015-10-02","value":3086471000},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":3041859000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":3090592000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":2964048000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":3114237000},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":3225831000},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":3433169000},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":3431841000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":3808036000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":1347415000},{"time":"2015-10-02","value":994532000},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":988411000},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":1214304000},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":1224986000},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":1322481000},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":1243083000},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":1400144000},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":1436813000},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":1636087000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":0.11740851927579847},{"time":"2015-10-02","value":0.1326081010967973},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":0.1250825820432998},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.11563002345376446},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":0.07878212485693714},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":0.13591726459586187},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":0.007404976176168446},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":0.11228845033082312},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":0.10800083239781377},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.10451644686376703}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-09-26","value":0.08593458777005235},{"time":"2015-10-02","value":0.0795448912366259},{"time":"2016-09-30","value":0.07832118451249713},{"time":"2017-09-29","value":0.08093983288638552},{"time":"2018-09-28","value":0.08699319309268946},{"time":"2019-09-27","value":0.10312060385898697},{"time":"2020-10-02","value":0.06707170958429007},{"time":"2021-10-01","value":0.07892387470584757},{"time":"2022-09-30","value":0.08241873676548535},{"time":"2023-09-29","value":0.09005088187191508}]}

Moog Inc. designs, manufactures, and integrates precision motion and fluid controls and controls systems for original equipment manufacturers and end users in the aerospace, defense, and industrial markets worldwide. The company's Aircraft Controls segment offers primary and secondary flight controls, and avionics for military and commercial aircraft; and aftermarket support services. Its Space and Defense Controls segment provides controls for space vehicles, launch vehicles, military vehicles, tactical and strategic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and other defense applications; and gun aiming, stabilization, and automatic ammunition loading for armored combat vehicles. This segment also offers controls for steering tactical and strategic missiles; naval vessels including surface ships, unmanned undersea vehicles, and submarines; and weapons stores management systems for light attack aerial reconnaissance, ground, and sea platforms. The company's Industrial Systems segment provides components and systems for applications in injection and blow molding machinery, metal forming presses, and heavy industry customers in steel and aluminum production; supplies electromechanical motion simulation bases for the flight simulation and training applications; and supplies solutions for power generation applications, as well as custom test systems and controls for automotive, structural, and fatigue testing. This segment also offers systems and components for applications in oil and gas exploration and production; components for wind turbine applications; components and systems for diagnostic imaging CT scan medical equipment, sleep apnea equipment, oxygen concentrators, infusion therapy, and enteral clinical nutrition; and hydraulics, slip rings, rotary unions and fiber optic rotary joints, motors, and infusion and enteral pumps. The company was incorporated in 1951 and is headquartered in East Aurora, New York.

Sector

10-K
9/30/23
10-Q
7/1/23
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12/31/22
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10-Q
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10-Q
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10-K
9/28/19
10-Q
6/29/19
10-Q
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10-Q
12/29/18
10-K
9/29/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-Q
12/30/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Moog Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$24.27M	$21.25M	$18.61M	$16.3M	$14.27M	$12.5M	$10.95M	$9.586M	$8.394M	$7.351M	$6.438M	$64.38M
DCF		$18.48M	$14.07M	$10.72M	$8.16M	$6.214M	$4.732M	$3.604M	$2.744M	$2.09M	$1.591M	$15.91M
Value	$88.32M

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 2.5%

Earnings Stability 1.5%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	10-2015	09-2016	09-2017	09-2018	09-2019	10-2020	10-2021	09-2022	09-2023	TTM
Net Margin	5.2%	5.1%	5.6%	3.6%	6.2%	0.32%	5.5%	5.1%	5.2%	5.4%
ROA	8%	7.8%	8.1%	8.7%	10%	6.7%	7.9%	8.2%	9%	9.4%
ROE	13%	13%	12%	7.9%	14%	0.74%	11%	11%	10%	11%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +4.31%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.28%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +8.48%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.1%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +9.12%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.43%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	10-2015	09-2016	09-2017	09-2018	09-2019	10-2020	10-2021	09-2022	09-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	4.24	6.81	6.77	109.57	13.23	4.92	6.02	7.85	-23.23	39.23
Debt Equity	1.08	1.02	0.79	0.71	0.63	0.76	0.71	0.59	0.53	0.54
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	73%	100%	6.6%	100%	100%	100%	6.6%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 39.23.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -19.40.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.07.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	09-2016	09-2018	10-2020	09-2022	Trend
Revenue	4.7%	4.1%	4.8%	9.3%	1.2%
Net Income	4.7%	12%	160%	10%	54%
Stockholders Equity	7.5%	6%	9.6%	14%	2.4%
FCF	-	-	-	-	14%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.14%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.17%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +12.12%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +54.12%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +5.96%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.38%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +13.78%.