Mueller Industries Inc

MLI

Rolling Drawing & Extruding of Nonferrous Metals

Mkt Cap

$6.341B

PE

11.16

Debt

$835K

Cash

$1.365B

EV

$4.977B

FCF

$671.9M

Market Cap

$6.341B

P/E Ratio

11.16

Debt

$835K

Cash

$1.365B

EV

$4.977B

FCF

$671.9M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-26","value":101560000},{"time":"2015-12-25","value":87864000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":99727000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":85598000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":104459000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":100972000},{"time":"2020-12-25","value":139493000},{"time":"2021-12-24","value":468520000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":658316000},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":602897000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-26","value":2364227000},{"time":"2015-12-25","value":2100002000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":2055622000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":2266073000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":2507878000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":2430616000},{"time":"2020-12-25","value":2398043000},{"time":"2021-12-24","value":3769345000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":3982455000},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":3420345000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-26","value":0.0429569580247582},{"time":"2015-12-25","value":0.0418399601524189},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.04851426964685142},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":0.037773716910267235},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":0.04165234513002626},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":0.04154173263074052},{"time":"2020-12-25","value":0.0581695157259482},{"time":"2021-12-24","value":0.12429745751582835},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.16530406495490846},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":0.17626789110455232}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-26","value":1328096000},{"time":"2015-12-25","value":1338801000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1447476000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":1320173000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":1369549000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":1370940000},{"time":"2020-12-25","value":1528568000},{"time":"2021-12-24","value":1728936000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2242399000},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":2759301000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-26","value":795434000},{"time":"2015-12-25","value":859702000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":936437000},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":536028000},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":563260000},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":662136000},{"time":"2020-12-25","value":801060000},{"time":"2021-12-24","value":1256963000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1813964000},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":2358716000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-26","value":0.1276787263305315},{"time":"2015-12-25","value":0.10220285633859175},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.10649621917972057},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":0.1596894192094443},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":0.18545431949721267},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":0.15249435161356578},{"time":"2020-12-25","value":0.17413552043542307},{"time":"2021-12-24","value":0.3727396908262216},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.36291569182188843},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":0.2556038963571706}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-26","value":0.11626117389104403},{"time":"2015-12-25","value":0.10466379992246794},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.106239412605114},{"time":"2017-12-29","value":0.11510385381309873},{"time":"2018-12-28","value":0.12833859905706185},{"time":"2019-12-27","value":0.1400790698352955},{"time":"2020-12-25","value":0.16082895886869278},{"time":"2021-12-24","value":0.37933445772428825},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.391165443794793},{"time":"2023-12-29","value":0.3067635607713693}]}

Mueller Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic products in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, South Korea, the Middle East, China, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: Piping Systems, Industrial Metals, and Climate. The Piping Systems segment offers copper tubes, fittings, line sets, and pipe nipples; PEX plumbing and radiant systems; and plumbing-related fittings and plastic injection tooling. It also resells steel pipes, brass and plastic plumbing valves, malleable iron fittings and faucets, and plumbing specialties; and supplies water tubes. This segment sells its products to wholesalers in the plumbing and refrigeration markets, distributors to the manufactured housing and recreational vehicle industries, building material retailers, and air-conditioning original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The Industrial Metals segment manufactures brass, bronze, and copper alloy rods; plumbing brass, valves, fittings, and gas assemblies; cold-form aluminum and copper products; machining of aluminum, steel, brass, and cast iron impacts and castings; brass and aluminum forgings; brass, aluminum, and stainless-steel valves; fluid control solutions; and gas train assembles to OEMs in the industrial, construction, HVAC, plumbing, and refrigeration markets. The Climate segment offers valves, protection devices, and brass fittings for various OEMs in the commercial HVAC and refrigeration markets; high-pressure components and accessories for the air-conditioning and refrigeration markets; coaxial heat exchangers and twisted tubes for the HVAC, geothermal, refrigeration, swimming pool heat pump, marine, ice machine, commercial boiler, and heat reclamation markets; and insulated HVAC flexible duct systems. Mueller Industries, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Collierville, Tennessee.

Sector

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DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Mueller Industries Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$671.9M	$844.1M	$1.041B	$1.26B	$1.497B	$1.743B	$1.99B	$2.226B	$2.44B	$2.618B	$2.749B	$27.49B
DCF		$734M	$787.3M	$828.7M	$855.7M	$866.6M	$860.4M	$837M	$797.6M	$744.1M	$679.4M	$6.794B
Value	$14.79B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 32%

Earnings Stability 76%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	4.2%	4.9%	3.8%	4.2%	4.2%	5.8%	12%	17%	18%	17%
ROA	10%	11%	12%	13%	14%	16%	38%	39%	31%	28%
ROE	10%	11%	16%	19%	15%	17%	37%	36%	26%	23%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +10.12%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +3.17%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +25.11%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +5.33%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +25.06%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +3.37%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	1.74	2.01	-226.00	3.90	2.33	1.84	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
Debt Equity	0.26	0.26	0.90	0.90	0.60	0.46	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	89%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	89%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 0.00.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -0.81.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.89.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	7.5%	6.4%	13%	-14%	1.6%
Net Income	29%	42%	63%	-8.4%	10%
Stockholders Equity	14%	33%	43%	30%	6.8%
FCF	26%	37%	45%	-9.8%	-4.8%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.4%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.56%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +41.99%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +10.29%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +33.17%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +6.82%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +36.74%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -4.81%.