Refrigeration & Service Industry Machinery
The Middleby Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, distributes, and services foodservice, food processing, and residential kitchen equipment worldwide. Its Commercial Foodservice Equipment Group segment offers conveyor, combi, convection, baking, proofing, deck, speed cooking, and hydrovection ovens; ranges, fryers, and rethermalizers; steam cooking, food warming, catering, induction cooking, and countertop cooking equipment; heated cabinets, charbroilers, ventless cooking systems, kitchen ventilation, toasters, griddles, charcoal grills, professional mixers, stainless steel fabrication, custom millwork, professional refrigerators, blast chillers, cold rooms, ice machines, and freezers; soft serve ice cream, coffee and beverage dispensing, home and professional craft brewing equipment; and fry dispensers, bottle filling and canning equipment, and IoT solutions. The Food Processing Equipment Group segment provides batch, baking, proofing, conveyor belt, and continuous processing ovens; frying and automated thermal processing systems; tumblers, massagers, grinders, slicers, reduction and emulsion systems, mixers, formers, and blenders; battering, breading, and seeding equipment; water cutting systems, food presses, food suspension equipment, filling and depositing solutions, and forming equipment; and food safety, food handling, freezing, and defrosting and packaging equipment for customers producing hot dog, dinner sausage, poultry, and lunchmeat, as well as bakery products. Its Residential Kitchen Equipment Group segment offers kitchen equipment comprising cookers, stoves, cooktops, microwaves, ovens, refrigerators, dishwashers, undercounter refrigeration, wine cellars, ice machines, beer dispensers, mixers, rotisseries, and ventilation and outdoor cooking equipment. The company was formerly known as Middleby Marshall Oven Company and changed its name to The Middleby Corporation in 1985. The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Elgin, Illinois.
Sector
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Middleby Corp
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $604.3M | $649.4M | $696.1M | $744.3M | $793.7M | $844.3M | $895.8M | $948M | $1.001B | $1.053B | $1.106B | $11.06B |
DCF | $564.7M | $526.4M | $489.4M | $453.8M | $419.8M | $387.3M | $356.4M | $327.1M | $299.4M | $273.4M | $2.734B | |
Value | $6.831B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 01-2016 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 01-2021 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 10% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 8.2% | 15% | 11% | 9.9% | 9.8% |
ROA | 11% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
ROE | 16% | 22% | 22% | 19% | 18% | 10% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 12% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +11.26%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.14%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +9.42%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.25%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +15.86%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -0.91%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 01-2016 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 01-2021 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 3.51 | 2.74 | 4.14 | 5.69 | 5.67 | 3.58 | 6.48 | 10.43 | 4.54 | 4.07 |
Debt Equity | 0.68 | 0.58 | 0.76 | 1.14 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.76 | 0.74 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 64% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 64% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 4.07.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.33.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.64.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 01-2021 | 12-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 8.6% | 8.2% | 17% | 0.093% | -0.42% |
Net Income | 5% | 4.8% | 25% | -8.2% | 0.13% |
Stockholders Equity | 14% | 14% | 18% | 16% | 0.48% |
FCF | 11% | 10% | 3.5% | 100% | 4.1% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.19%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.42%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.8%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.13%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +14.31%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.48%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +10.31%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +4.11%.