Mgp Ingredients Inc

MGPI

Wholesale-Beer, Wine & Distilled Alcoholic Beverages

Mkt Cap

$1.66B

PE

17.28

Debt

$313.7M

Cash

$19.5M

EV

$1.954B

FCF

$37.33M

Market Cap

$1.66B

P/E Ratio

17.28

Debt

$313.7M

Cash

$19.5M

EV

$1.954B

FCF

$37.33M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":22843000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":25318000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":30230000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":40827000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":36576000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":38540000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":40084000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":90595000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":108591000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":106401000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":16306000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":18772000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":22422000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":22870000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":19782000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":362745000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":395521000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":626720000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":782358000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":836523000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1.4008953759352385},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1.3487108459407628},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1.3482294175363483},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1.785177087888063},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1.848953594176524},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.1062454341203876},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.1013448084931015},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.14455418687771254},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.13879962881443023},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.12719435090248565}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":160599000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":194310000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":225336000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":240328000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":277892000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":322597000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":366575000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1041467000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1158211000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1392348000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":104365000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":116160000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":146292000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":168730000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":201441000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":231044000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":262526000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":644755000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":746724000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":850492000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.21887605998179466},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.21795798898071625},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.20664151149755283},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.24196645528358918},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.18157177535854171},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.16680805387718356},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.1526858292131065},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.14051073663639677},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.14542320857505583},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.12510523320619124}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.16660128643391303},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.20046317739694303},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.20418841197145596},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.21952498252388403},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.180458595425561},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.1464427753512897},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.14796699174793698},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.12133173686732272},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.12861646107660868},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.10673552876148779}]}

MGP Ingredients, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Distillery Solutions; Branded Spirits; and Ingredient Solutions. The Distillery Solutions segment provides food grade alcohol for beverage applications that include bourbon and rye, whiskeys, as well as grain neutral spirits, include vodka and gin; and food-grade industrial alcohol, which is used as an ingredient in foods, personal care products, cleaning solutions, pharmaceuticals, and various other products. This segment also provides fuel-grade alcohol for blending with gasoline; distillers feed and related co-products, such as distillers feed and corn oil; and warehouse services, include barrel put away, storage, and retrieval, as well as blending services. The Branded Spirits segment provides ultra-premium, super premium, premium, mid, and value branded distilled spirits. The Ingredient Solutions segment provides specialty wheat starches for food applications under the Fibersym, Resistant Starch series, and FiberRite RW Resistant Starch names; specialty wheat proteins for food applications under the Arise and Proterra names; gluten-free textured pea proteins; commodity wheat starch for food and non-food applications; and commodity wheat proteins. The company sells its products directly or through distributors to manufacturers and processors of finished packaged goods or to bakeries. MGP Ingredients, Inc. was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Atchison, Kansas.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
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12/31/22
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10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Mgp Ingredients Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$37.33M	$47.84M	$60.07M	$73.89M	$88.98M	$104.9M	$120.9M	$136.3M	$150.1M	$161.5M	$169.5M	$1.695B
DCF		$41.6M	$45.42M	$48.58M	$50.88M	$52.14M	$52.27M	$51.23M	$49.07M	$45.9M	$41.91M	$419.1M
Value	$898.1M

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 20%

Earnings Stability 84%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	130%	130%	180%	180%	11%	10%	14%	14%	13%	12%
ROA	20%	20%	22%	18%	15%	15%	12%	13%	11%	9.8%
ROE	22%	21%	24%	18%	17%	15%	14%	15%	13%	11%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +41.12%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -24.19%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +13.86%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -1.28%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +15.2%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -1.02%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-3.16	22.75	2.06	13.54	14.01	1.24	5.95	5.55	10.53	8.40
Debt Equity	0.32	0.28	0.15	0.16	0.18	0.16	0.38	0.32	0.35	0.36
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 8.40.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -1.02.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 1.00.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	68%	110%	28%	6.9%	2%
Net Income	20%	24%	38%	-2%	2.4%
Stockholders Equity	29%	33%	48%	14%	3.9%
FCF	48%	64%	-5.3%	-35%	-61%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +111.47%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.98%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +23.81%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.44%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +33.38%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.91%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +63.58%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -60.76%.