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Mercer International Inc.

MERC

Pulp Mills

Mkt Cap

$626M

PE

-2.59

Debt

$1.609B

Cash

$314M

EV

$1.921B

FCF

-$205.3M

Market Cap

$626M

P/E Ratio

-2.59

Debt

$1.609B

Cash

$314M

EV

$1.921B

FCF

-$205.3M
Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":113154000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":75502000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":34943000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":70483000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":128589000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-9639000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-17235000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":170988000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":247039000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-242056000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1175112000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1033204000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":931623000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1169145000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1457718000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1624411000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1423140000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1803255000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2280937000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1993844000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.0962920981149031},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.07307559784902111},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.03750766136087237},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.06028593544855428},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.08821253493474046},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.00593384309759045},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.012110544289388254},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.09482186379630168},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.10830592866001998},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.12140167435366057}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1326807000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1182817000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1158708000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1724710000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1975735000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2065720000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":2129126000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":2351232000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2725037000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2662578000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":438880000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":382976000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":379128000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":550666000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":581429000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":550403000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":601027000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":694024000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":838784000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":635410000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.2578244622675902},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.19714551303475936},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.09216676162140491},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.1279959176706025},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.2211602792430374},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.017512622569281055},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.028675916389779493},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.2463718833930815},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.2945204009613917},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.3809445869596009}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.12941445138592123},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.14007576827184595},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.09816364433489715},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.09685918212337147},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.13557840499864607},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.04131101988652867},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.03269275749767745},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.147404849882955},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.14398630183736955},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":-0.07089895582401717}]}

Mercer International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) pulp in Europe, the United States, Asia, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Pulp and Wood Products. It also generates and sells green energy produced from biomass cogeneration power plant to third party utilities. In addition, the company manufactures, distributes, and sells lumber and other wood residuals. Further, it produces NBSK pulp primarily from wood chips, pulp logs, and sawlogs; carbon neutral or green energy using carbon-neutral bio-fuels, such as black liquor and wood waste; and tall oil for use as a chemical additive and green energy source. The company sells its pulp to tissue, specialty paper, and printing and writing paper, and other manufacturers; and lumber products to distributors, construction firms, secondary manufacturers, retail yards, and home centers. Mercer International Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Sector

    In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

    Earnings Growth 19%
    Earnings Stability 4.3%


    Competitiveness and MOAT

    High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

    Years12-201512-201612-201712-201812-201912-202012-202112-202212-2023TTM
    Net Margin7.3%3.8%6%8.8%-0.59%-1.2%9.5%11%-12%-12%
    ROA14%9.8%9.7%14%4.1%3.3%15%14%-7.1%-7.1%
    ROE20%9.2%13%22%-1.8%-2.9%25%29%-38%-38%

    What is the average Net Margin?

    The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +2.53%.

    What is the trend of Net Margin?

    The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -1.71%.

    What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

    The average ROA over the past 5 years is +7.17%.

    What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

    The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -1.74%.

    What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

    The average ROE over the past 5 years is +5.58%.

    What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

    The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -5.14%.


    Safety & Stabiliy

    Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

    Years12-201512-201612-201712-201812-201912-202012-202112-202212-2023TTM
    Debt FCF5.776.3815.137.089.80-32.1154.347.40-7.84-7.84
    Debt Equity1.701.652.311.822.001.971.781.612.532.53
    MIN
    Graham Stability--95%100%-12%-27%100%100%-180%-180%

    What is the Debt/FCF?

    The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is -7.84.

    What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

    The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.13.

    What is the Graham’s Stability?

    Graham’s Stability measure stands at -1.81.


    Growth

    Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

    Years12-201612-201812-202012-2022Trend
    Revenue11%6.5%12%-13%1.2%
    Net Income----12%
    Stockholders Equity7.7%1.8%1.9%-24%-0.61%
    FCF----95%

    What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

    The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +6.46%.

    What is the trend of Revenue growth?

    The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.2%.

    What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

    The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

    What is the trend of Earnings growth?

    The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +11.65%.

    What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

    The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +1.79%.

    What is the trend of Equity growth?

    The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.61%.

    What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

    The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

    What is the trend of FCF growth?

    The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +94.84%.