Mdu Resources Group Inc

MDU

Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels)

Mkt Cap

$5.141B

PE

10.77

Debt

$2.447B

Cash

$89.3M

EV

$7.499B

FCF

$209.6M

Market Cap

$5.141B

P/E Ratio

10.77

Debt

$2.447B

Cash

$89.3M

EV

$7.499B

FCF

$209.6M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":294338000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-657691000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-67258000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":280432000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":272318000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":335453000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":390205000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":378131000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":367489000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":414707000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":4670558000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":4191549000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":4128828000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":4443351000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":4531552000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":5336776000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":5532750000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":5680733000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":6973864000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":4657340000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.06301987899518645},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.15690881819585076},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.01628985271365143},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.06311272730873613},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.06009376037172254},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.06285686339467873},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.07052641091681353},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.066563769147397},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.05269517730773069},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.08904374600093616}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":7809978000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":6627608000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":6284467000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":6334666000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":6988110000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":7683059000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":8053372000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":8910435000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":9660781000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":7833159000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":3249784000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":2520548000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":2316244000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":2429043000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2566775000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2847246000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":3079105000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":3382874000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":3587129000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2905233000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.09057155798662311},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.2609317497623533},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.029037527997913863},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.11544958240755722},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.10609344410787856},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.11781665511164122},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.12672675988639556},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.11177803252500684},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.10244655266091629},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.14274483320270698}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.06251298019021308},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.03834460336217833},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.06510019067647264},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.0676771277285969},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.057486645173015306},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.06263390662495238},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.06766420326789822},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.05995431199486894},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.059410621149573725},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.06892468287698487}]}

MDU Resources Group, Inc. engages in the regulated energy delivery, and construction materials and services businesses in the United States. It operates through five segments: Electric, Natural Gas Distribution, Pipeline, Construction Materials and Contracting, and Construction Services. The Electric segment generates, transmits, and distributes electricity for residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming; and operates 3,400 miles of transmission lines, 4,800 miles of distribution lines, and 84 transmission and 294 distribution substations. The Natural Gas Distribution segment distributes natural gas for residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming; and offers related value-added services. The Pipeline segment provides natural gas transportation and underground storage services through a regulated pipeline system primarily in the Rocky Mountain and northern Great Plains regions; and cathodic protection and other energy-related services. The Construction Materials and Contracting segment mines, processes, and sells construction aggregates; produces and sells asphalt; supplies ready-mixed concrete; and sells cement, finished concrete products, merchandise and other building materials, and related contracting services. The Construction Services segment constructs and maintains electrical and communication wiring and infrastructure, fire suppression systems, mechanical piping, and services; overhead and underground electrical, gas, and communication infrastructure construction and maintenance services; and manufactures and distributes transmission lines construction equipment and tools. It serves manufacturing, commercial, industrial, transportation, institutional, and renewable and government customers, as well as utilities. The company was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Bismarck, North Dakota.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
9/30/22
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6/30/22
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3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
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9/30/21
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6/30/21
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3/31/21
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12/31/20
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9/30/20
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6/30/20
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3/31/20
10-K
12/31/19
10-Q
9/30/19
10-Q
6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Mdu Resources Group Inc

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$209.6M	$226.8M	$244.6M	$262.9M	$281.7M	$300.8M	$320.1M	$339.6M	$359M	$378.2M	$397.1M	$3.971B
DCF		$197.2M	$185M	$172.9M	$161.1M	$149.6M	$138.4M	$127.7M	$117.3M	$107.5M	$98.15M	$981.5M
Value	$2.436B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 8%

Earnings Stability 47%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	-16%	-1.6%	6.3%	6%	6.3%	7.1%	6.7%	5.3%	8.9%	12%
ROA	3.8%	6.5%	6.8%	5.7%	6.3%	6.8%	6%	5.9%	6.9%	7.7%
ROE	-26%	-2.9%	12%	11%	12%	13%	11%	10%	14%	16%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +6.7%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.32%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +6.27%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.11%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +11.79%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.35%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	129.36	24.77	17.48	-36.65	-66.88	10.69	-17.69	-21.07	-88.74	11.67
Debt Equity	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.92	0.79	0.73	0.85	0.86	0.82	0.82
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 11.67.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -4.33.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 1.00.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	1.7%	0.55%	-5.6%	-33%	-0.45%
Net Income	-	8.8%	2.1%	13%	-0.53%
Stockholders Equity	3.3%	2.5%	-1.9%	-19%	1.1%
FCF	-	-	-	-	-330%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +0.55%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.45%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.78%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.53%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +2.51%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.14%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -15.98%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -325.4%.