Water Transportation
Matson, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides ocean transportation and logistics services. The company's Ocean Transportation segment offers ocean freight transportation services to the domestic non-contiguous economies of Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam, as well as to other island economies in Micronesia. It primarily transports dry containers of mixed commodities, refrigerated commodities, foods and beverages, building materials, automobiles, and household goods; livestock; seafood; general sustenance cargo; and garments, footwear, e-commerce, and other retail merchandise. This segment also operates an expedited service from China to Long Beach, California, and various islands in the South Pacific, as well as Okinawa, Japan; and provides stevedoring, refrigerated cargo services, inland transportation, container equipment maintenance, and other terminal services to ocean carriers on the Hawaiian islands of Oahu, Hawaii, Maui, and Kauai, as well as in the Alaska locations of Anchorage, Kodiak, and Dutch Harbor. In addition, the company offers vessel management and container transshipment services. Its Logistics segment provides multimodal transportation brokerage services, including domestic and international rail intermodal, long-haul and regional highway trucking, specialized hauling, flat-bed and project, less-than-truckload, and expedited freight services; less-than-container load consolidation and freight forwarding services; warehousing and distribution services; supply chain management services, and non-vessel operating common carrier freight forwarding services. The company serves the U.S. military, freight forwarders, retailers, consumer goods, automobile manufacturers, and other customers. The company was formerly known as Alexander & Baldwin Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Matson, Inc. in June 2012. Matson, Inc. was founded in 1882 and is headquartered in Honolulu, Hawaii.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Matson, Inc.
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $399.6M | $502.7M | $620.7M | $752.2M | $894.1M | $1.042B | $1.19B | $1.333B | $1.461B | $1.568B | $1.646B | $16.46B |
DCF | $437.1M | $469.4M | $494.6M | $511.2M | $518.1M | $514.7M | $500.9M | $477.5M | $445.6M | $406.8M | $4.068B | |
Value | $8.844B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 11% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 8.1% | 24% | 24% | 10% |
ROA | 10% | 12% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 9.7% | 32% | 31% | 8.9% |
ROE | 19% | 23% | 17% | 34% | 14% | 10% | 20% | 56% | 46% | 13% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +12.7%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +3.61%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +15.17%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +5.84%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +30.16%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +5.54%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
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Debt FCF | 2.87 | 2.55 | -35.68 | -10.81 | -26.74 | 33.90 | 2.52 | 1.03 | 0.53 | 1.23 |
Debt Equity | 1.09 | 1.00 | 1.63 | 1.31 | 1.19 | 1.25 | 0.85 | 0.42 | 0.26 | 0.20 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 100% | 79% | 59% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 59% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.23.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 3.10.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.59.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2017 | 12-2019 | 12-2021 | Trend |
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Revenue | 13% | 16% | 25% | 11% | 3.2% |
Net Income | 40% | 36% | 130% | 15% | 17% |
Stockholders Equity | 26% | 28% | 42% | 38% | 4.4% |
FCF | 30% | - | 240% | 67% | 39% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +16.24%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.2%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +35.61%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +17.24%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +27.63%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +4.36%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +39.03%.