Lsb Industries, Inc.

LXU

Industrial Inorganic Chemicals

Mkt Cap

$704.4M

PE

39.92

Debt

$558.6M

Cash

$126M

EV

$1.137B

FCF

$34.93M

Market Cap

$704.4M

P/E Ratio

39.92

Debt

$558.6M

Cash

$126M

EV

$1.137B

FCF

$34.93M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":19334000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-38038000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":64760000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":-59447000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":-102741000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-96441000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-99419000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-220002000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":230347000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":27923000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":732510000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":711781000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":374585000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":427504000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":378160000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":365070000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":351316000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":556239000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":901711000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":593709000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.026394178919059125},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.05344059478968952},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.17288465902265174},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":-0.1390560088326659},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":-0.2716865876877512},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.26417125482784126},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.282990242402851},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-0.39551703494361234},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.25545546189411017},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.04703145817226958}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1137005000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1361827000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1270420000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1189182000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1148333000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1088489000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1053302000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1132840000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1439819000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1298184000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":434048000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":421580000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":492513000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":438196000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":342197000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":247327000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":149643000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":460490000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":515873000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":518331000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.04454346063108228},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.09022724038142227},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.1314889150134108},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":-0.13566303663200943},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":-0.300239335821179},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.38993316540450496},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.6643745447498379},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":-0.47775630306847056},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.4465188137390404},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.053870982055867773}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.04717921205271745},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.037267582446228485},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":-0.07101824593441539},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":-0.02866760512688554},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":-0.020050804078607862},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.03591308685710191},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":-0.014748856453324877},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.08919882772500971},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.2141783099125654},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.0398841766652493}]}

LSB Industries, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of chemical products. The company provides nitrogen-based fertilizers, such as ammonia, fertilizer grade ammonium nitrate (HDAN), and urea ammonia nitrate for fertilizer and fertilizer blends for corn and other crops, and NPK fertilizer blends applications. It also offers high purity and commercial grade ammonia, high purity ammonium nitrate, sulfuric acids, mixed nitrating acids, carbon dioxide, and diesel exhaust fluids, as well as concentrated, and blended and regular nitric acids for various applications, including semi-conductor and polyurethane intermediates; pulp and paper, alum, water treatment, metals, and vanadium processing; power plant emissions abatement, water treatment, refrigerants, and metals processing; exhaust stream additive, and horticulture/greenhouse applications; and refrigeration. In addition, the company provides industrial grade ammonium nitrate, ammonium nitrate, and HDAN solutions for ammonium nitrate fuel oil and specialty emulsions for mining, surface mining, quarries, and construction applications. It sells its products through distributors, as well as directly to end customers in the United States, Mexico, Canada, and the Caribbean. The company serves to the agricultural, industrial, and mining markets. LSB Industries, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
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10-K
12/31/22
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12/31/19
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3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Lsb Industries, Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$34.93M	$45.41M	$57.77M	$71.89M	$87.46M	$104M	$120.7M	$136.8M	$151.3M	$163M	$171.2M	$1.712B
DCF		$39.48M	$43.68M	$47.27M	$50.01M	$51.7M	$52.2M	$51.44M	$49.45M	$46.35M	$42.32M	$423.2M
Value	$897.1M

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 14%

Earnings Stability -74%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	-5.3%	17%	-14%	-27%	-26%	-28%	-40%	26%	4.7%	3.2%
ROA	-3.7%	-7.1%	-2.9%	-2%	-3.6%	-1.5%	8.9%	21%	4%	2.6%
ROE	-9%	13%	-14%	-30%	-39%	-66%	-48%	45%	5.4%	3.4%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is -15.2%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +8.69%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +4.54%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +3.3%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is -22.2%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +12.76%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-1.27	-1.85	-12.63	-22.53	-13.80	-15.19	10.29	2.43	8.51	15.99
Debt Equity	1.23	0.88	0.96	1.28	1.90	3.35	1.17	1.41	1.15	1.08
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-390%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-390%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 15.99.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 6.55.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -3.87.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Data are missing

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	6.8%	9.4%	19%	-34%	5%
Net Income	-11%	-	-	-88%	-
Stockholders Equity	0.73%	8.7%	51%	0.48%	7%
FCF	-	-	-	-77%	-550%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +9.44%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +4.99%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.66%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +6.98%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -547.78%.