Lululemon Athletica Inc.

LULU

Apparel & Other Finishd Prods of Fabrics & Similar Matl

Mkt Cap

$54.39B

PE

54.00

Debt

Cash

$1.108B

EV

$53.28B

FCF

$969.3M

Market Cap

$54.39B

P/E Ratio

54.00

Debt

Cash

$1.108B

EV

$53.28B

FCF

$969.3M

Lululemon Athletica Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories under the lululemon brand for women and men. It operates in two segments, Company-Operated Stores and Direct to Consumer. The company offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for healthy lifestyle, such as yoga, running, training, and other activities. It also provides fitness- inspired accessories and footwear. The company sells its products through a chain of company-operated stores; outlets; interactive workout platform; yoga and fitness studios, university campus retailers, and other partners; license and supply arrangements; recommerce; and temporary locations, as well as through mobile apps and lululemon.com e-commerce website. It has operations in the United States, the People's Republic of China, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Germany, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, France, Ireland, Spain, Malaysia, Sweden, the Netherlands, Norway, and Switzerland. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Sector

10-Q
7/30/23
10-Q
4/30/23
10-K
1/29/23
10-Q
10/30/22
10-Q
7/31/22
10-Q
5/1/22
10-K
1/30/22
10-Q
10/31/21
10-Q
8/1/21
10-Q
5/2/21
10-K
1/31/21
10-Q
11/1/20
10-Q
8/2/20
10-Q
5/3/20
10-K
2/2/20
10-Q
11/3/19
10-Q
8/4/19
10-Q
5/5/19
10-K
2/3/19
10-Q
10/28/18
10-Q
7/29/18
10-Q
4/29/18
10-K
1/28/18

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Lululemon Athletica Inc.

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$969.3M	$1.165B	$1.381B	$1.614B	$1.859B	$2.109B	$2.357B	$2.594B	$2.812B	$3B	$3.15B	$31.5B
DCF		$1.013B	$1.044B	$1.061B	$1.063B	$1.048B	$1.019B	$975.3M	$919.2M	$852.8M	$778.6M	$7.786B
Value	$17.56B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 22%

Earnings Stability 92%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been decreasing indicating a lower marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, this could impede growth.

Years	01-2015	01-2016	01-2017	01-2018	02-2019	02-2020	01-2021	01-2022	01-2023	TTM
Net Margin	13%	13%	13%	9.8%	15%	16%	13%	16%	11%	11%
ROA	29%	28%	25%	23%	34%	27%	20%	27%	24%	26%
ROE	22%	26%	22%	16%	33%	33%	23%	36%	27%	29%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +13.37%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +0.1%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +25.73%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.67%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +28.08%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.46%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate reliability of earnings, and consideration about the future are more dependable.

Years	01-2015	01-2016	01-2017	01-2018	02-2019	02-2020	01-2021	01-2022	01-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-	-	-	-	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Debt Equity	-	-	-	-	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	100%	96%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	96%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 0.00.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.00.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.96.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has been increasing in past years.

Years	01-2016	01-2018	02-2020	01-2022	Trend
Revenue	22%	25%	27%	30%	2.5%
Net Income	18%	27%	9.8%	-12%	2.9%
Stockholders Equity	17%	15%	17%	15%	1.9%
FCF	11%	-0.22%	-5.3%	-67%	-1.9%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +25.08%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.51%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +27.01%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +2.9%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +14.54%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.93%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -0.22%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.88%.