Louisiana-pacific Corp

LPX

Lumber & Wood Products (No Furniture)

Mkt Cap

$6.497B

PE

24.52

Debt

$347M

Cash

$244M

EV

$6.6B

FCF

$313M

Market Cap

$6.497B

P/E Ratio

24.52

Debt

$347M

Cash

$244M

EV

$6.6B

FCF

$313M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-75400000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-88100000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":149800000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":389800000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":394600000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-10000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":497000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1373000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1083000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":178000000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1934800000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1892500000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":2233400000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":2734000000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2828000000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":2310000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":2788000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":4553000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":3854000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2581000000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-0.038970436220798016},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.04655217965653897},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.06707262469777021},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.14257498171177763},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.13953323903818954},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.004329004329004329},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.17826398852223815},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.301559411377114},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.28100674623767513},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.06896551724137931}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":2353500000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":2176300000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":2031200000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":2448500000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":2514100000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":1835000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":2086000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":2194000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":2350000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":2437000000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1115800000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":1017000000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1195700000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":1604500000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":1700200000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":991000000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1234000000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1235000000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1433000000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1557000000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-0.06757483419967736},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.08662733529990167},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.12528226143681526},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.24294172639451542},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.2320903423126691},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.010090817356205853},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.4027552674230146},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1.111740890688259},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.7557571528262387},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.11432241490044959}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":-0.0319524113023157},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.029086063502274502},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.10043324143363529},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.216254849908107},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.21470904100871088},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":-0.0027247956403269754},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.3058485139022052},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.8313582497721057},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.5319148936170213},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.11776774723020107}]}

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides building solutions primarily for use in new home construction, repair and remodeling, and outdoor structure markets. It operates through: Siding, Oriented Strand Board, and South America. The Siding segment offers LP SmartSide trim and siding products, LP SmartSide ExpertFinish trim and siding products, LP BuilderSeries lap siding products, and LP Outdoor Building Solutions; and engineered wood siding, trim, soffit, and fascia products. The Oriented Strand Board segment manufactures and distributes oriented strand board structural panel products comprising LP TechShield radiant barriers, LP WeatherLogic air and water barriers, LP Legacy premium sub-flooring products, LP FlameBlock fire-rated sheathing products, and LP TopNotch sub-flooring products. The South America segment manufactures and distributes oriented strand board structural panel and siding products. This segment also distributes and sells related products for the region's transition to wood frame construction. It also offers timber and timberlands and other products and services. The company sells its products primarily to retailers, wholesalers, and homebuilding and industrial businesses in North America and South America, Asia, Australia, and Europe. Louisiana-Pacific Corporation was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
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6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
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9/30/22
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6/30/22
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3/31/22
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12/31/21
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9/30/21
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12/31/20
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10-K
12/31/19
10-Q
9/30/19
10-Q
6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Louisiana-pacific Corp

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$313M	$377.3M	$448.3M	$524.8M	$605.5M	$688M	$769.9M	$848.3M	$920M	$981.9M	$1.031B	$10.31B
DCF		$328.1M	$338.9M	$345.1M	$346.2M	$342.1M	$332.9M	$318.9M	$300.7M	$279.1M	$254.8M	$2.548B
Value	$5.735B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 23%

Earnings Stability -0.83%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	-4.7%	6.7%	14%	14%	-0.43%	18%	30%	28%	6.9%	9.7%
ROA	-2.9%	10%	22%	21%	-0.27%	31%	83%	53%	12%	16%
ROE	-8.7%	13%	24%	23%	-1%	40%	110%	76%	11%	16%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +16.08%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.79%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +33.31%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +4.7%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +43.44%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +6.91%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Under the assumption that FCF does not diminish and debt does not increase, the current years to repay the debt are acceptable.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	-8.98	1.77	1.24	1.19	-117.00	0.60	0.28	0.48	21.88	1.11
Debt Equity	0.75	0.32	0.25	0.21	0.35	0.28	0.28	0.24	0.22	0.21
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	-	100%	-3.2%	100%	100%	100%	18%	-3.2%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.11.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 13.02.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.03.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	2.1%	-1.8%	-2.5%	-33%	-2.1%
Net Income	2.5%	-15%	-29%	-84%	-24%
Stockholders Equity	3.8%	-1.7%	8.1%	8.7%	0.26%
FCF	-31%	-44%	-70%	-98%	-15%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is -1.81%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is -2.07%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -14.72%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -24.12%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is -1.74%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.26%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -44.5%.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -15.06%.