Retail-Grocery Stores
The Kroger Co. operates as a food and drug retailer in the United States. The company operates combination food and drug stores, multi-department stores, marketplace stores, and price impact warehouses. Its combination food and drug stores offer natural food and organic sections, pharmacies, general merchandise, pet centers, fresh seafood, and organic produce; and multi-department stores provide apparel, home fashion and furnishings, outdoor living, electronics, automotive products, and toys. The company's marketplace stores offer full-service grocery, pharmacy, health and beauty care, and perishable goods, as well as general merchandise, including apparel, home goods, and toys; and price impact warehouse stores provide grocery, and health and beauty care items, as well as meat, dairy, baked goods, and fresh produce items. It also manufactures and processes food products for sale in its supermarkets and online; and sells fuel through fuel centers. The Kroger Co. was founded in 1883 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Kroger Co
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $2.884B | $3.342B | $3.833B | $4.349B | $4.882B | $5.421B | $5.954B | $6.468B | $6.948B | $7.379B | $7.748B | $77.48B |
DCF | $2.906B | $2.898B | $2.859B | $2.791B | $2.695B | $2.574B | $2.432B | $2.271B | $2.098B | $1.915B | $19.15B | |
Value | $44.59B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 01-2016 | 01-2017 | 02-2018 | 02-2019 | 01-2020 | 01-2021 | 01-2022 | 01-2023 | 02-2024 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
ROA | 11% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 12% | 5.7% | 8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
ROE | 30% | 29% | 27% | 39% | 18% | 27% | 17% | 22% | 18% | 18% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +1.64%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.16%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +7.89%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.65%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +23.54%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -2.81%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 01-2016 | 01-2017 | 02-2018 | 02-2019 | 01-2020 | 01-2021 | 01-2022 | 01-2023 | 02-2024 | TTM |
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Debt FCF | 8.78 | 27.17 | 30.38 | 14.63 | 9.88 | 3.36 | 3.41 | 8.76 | 3.54 | 3.54 |
Debt Equity | 2.02 | 2.32 | 2.65 | 2.22 | 1.76 | 1.38 | 1.29 | 1.24 | 0.88 | 0.88 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 99% | 100% | 66% | 100% | 69% | 100% | 100% | 66% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 3.54.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -1.68.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.66.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 01-2017 | 02-2019 | 01-2021 | 01-2023 | Trend |
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Revenue | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
Net Income | 1.3% | -6.9% | -5.7% | -3.5% | -0.4% |
Stockholders Equity | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 16% | -0.44% |
FCF | 26% | 19% | -10% | 100% | 6.3% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.37%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.2%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -6.95%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.4%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +8.05%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.44%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +19.23%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +6.34%.