Knight-swift Transportation Holdings Inc.
KNX
Trucking (No Local)
Mkt Cap
$8.373BPE
22.32Debt
$2.317BCash
$456.9MEV
$10.23BFCF
$1.209BP/E Ratio
22.32Debt
$2.317BCash
$456.9MEV
$10.23BFCF
$1.209BKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation services in the United States and Mexico. The company operates through four segments: Truckload, Less-than-truckload (LTL), Logistics, and Intermodal. The Truckload segment provides transportations services, which include irregular route and dedicated, refrigerated, expedited, flatbed, and cross-border operations. This segment operated an average of 18,110 tractors, which comprised 16,228 company tractors and 1,882 independent contractor tractors, as well as 74,779 trailers. The LTL segment provides regional transportation services through a network of approximately 110 service centers; and offers national coverage through partner carrier outside the network. This segment operated an average of 3,176 tractors and 8,431 trailers. The Logistic segment offers brokerage and other freight management services through third-party transportation providers and equipment. The Intermodal segment offers transportation services, including freight through third-party intermodal rail services on trailing equipment, such as containers and trailers on flat cars; and drayage services. This segment operated an average of 613 tractors and 11,786 intermodal containers. The company also provides repair and maintenance shop, equipment leasing, warranty, and insurance services; and warehousing and driving academy services, as well as manufactures trailer parts. It serves retail, food and beverage, consumer and paper products, transportation and logistics, housing and building, automotive, and manufacturing industries. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
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DCF
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Knight-swift Transportation Holdings Inc.
Value
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
| g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| +1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| +2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| +3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| +4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | $1.209B | $1.572B | $2B | $2.489B | $3.028B | $3.6B | $4.18B | $4.738B | $5.238B | $5.645B | $5.927B | $59.27B |
| DCF | $1.367B | $1.512B | $1.637B | $1.731B | $1.79B | $1.807B | $1.781B | $1.712B | $1.605B | $1.465B | $14.65B | |
| Value | $31.06B | |||||||||||
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
Earnings Growth 26%
Earnings Stability 53%
Competitiveness and MOAT
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
| Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Margin | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 20% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 12% | 10% | 5.4% |
| ROA | 13% | 13% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 10% | 4.1% |
| ROE | 34% | 19% | 12% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 7% | 11% | 11% | 5.3% |
What is the average Net Margin?
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +10.96%.
What is the trend of Net Margin?
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.91%.
What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +6.88%.
What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +1.24%.
What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +8.63%.
What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +0.62%.
Safety & Stabiliy
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
| Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt FCF | 10.40 | 3.16 | 2.25 | -6.03 | 3.36 | 77.20 | 0.61 | 1.49 | 0.80 | 1.92 |
| Debt Equity | 1.99 | 1.16 | 0.65 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| MIN | ||||||||||
| Graham Stability | - | - | 66% | 100% | 100% | 93% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 66% |
What is the Debt/FCF?
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.92.
What is the trend of Debt/FCF?
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -1.37.
What is the Graham’s Stability?
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.66.
Growth
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
| Years | 12-2015 | 12-2017 | 12-2019 | 12-2021 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.4% | 25% | 15% | 24% | 3.3% |
| Net Income | 31% | 9.7% | 36% | 3.7% | -0.11% |
| Stockholders Equity | 41% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | -15% |
| FCF | 30% | - | 430% | 21% | 290% |
What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +25.09%.
What is the trend of Revenue growth?
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.34%.
What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +9.75%.
What is the trend of Earnings growth?
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -0.11%.
What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +5.83%.
What is the trend of Equity growth?
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -15.13%.
What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.
What is the trend of FCF growth?
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +294.68%.