Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts
Kaman Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the aerospace, defense, medical, and industrial markets. The company operates through three segments: Engineered Products, Precision Products, and Structures. The Engineered Products segment produces and markets aircraft bearings and components; super precision; miniature ball bearings; and spring energized seals, springs, and contacts, as well as wheels, brakes, and related hydraulic components for helicopters and fixed-wing, and UAV aircraft. The Precision Products segment provides safe and arming solutions for missile and bomb systems for the U.S. and allied militaries; undertakes subcontract helicopter works; restores, modifies, and supports its SH-2G Super Seasprite maritime helicopters; and supports heavy lift K-MAX manned helicopter, and the KARGO UAV unmanned aerial system. The Structures segment offers metallic and composite aero structures for commercial, military, and general aviation fixed and rotary wing aircrafts; and medical imaging solutions. The company operates in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Oceania, and internationally. Kaman Corporation was incorporated in 1945 and is headquartered in Bloomfield, Connecticut.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Kaman Corp
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $46.71M | $41.96M | $37.69M | $33.85M | $30.41M | $27.31M | $24.54M | $22.04M | $19.8M | $17.78M | $15.97M | $159.7M |
DCF | $36.49M | $28.5M | $22.26M | $17.39M | $13.58M | $10.61M | $8.285M | $6.471M | $5.055M | $3.948M | $39.48M | |
Value | $192.1M |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 28% | -8.9% | 6.2% | -6.7% | 1% | 1% |
ROA | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.8% | -6% | 5% | -4.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
ROE | 11% | 10% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 25% | -9.3% | 5.5% | -6.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +3.67%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -2.77%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +1.26%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.71%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +4.1%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is -3.4%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | 12-2023 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 6.93 | 6.89 | 7.91 | 2.33 | 9.28 | -143.77 | 6.16 | -206.80 | 16.20 | 16.20 |
Debt Equity | 1.02 | 0.95 | 0.65 | 0.49 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.82 | 1.09 | 1.09 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 84% | 96% | 100% | -67% | 67% | -75% | - | -75% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 16.20.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -12.26.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -0.75.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2016 | 12-2018 | 12-2020 | 12-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | -11% | -16% | -0.37% | 13% | 0.35% |
Net Income | -25% | -32% | - | - | 58% |
Stockholders Equity | 2.9% | 1.8% | -2.5% | 1.1% | -1.5% |
FCF | -7.1% | -19% | - | - | -1.1% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is -16.18%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.35%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is -31.88%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +57.72%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +1.79%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.5%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -18.82%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.12%.