Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas
Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, exploration, and exploitation of unconventional and onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas. It focuses on the development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp formations of the Midland basin; and the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware basin, which are part of the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. The company also owns, operates, develops, and acquires midstream infrastructure assets, including 770 miles of crude oil gathering pipelines, natural gas gathering pipelines, and an integrated water system in the Midland and Delaware Basins of the Permian Basin. Diamondback Energy, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.
Sector
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Diamondback Energy, Inc.
Growth
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Discount
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Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $3.262B | $4.241B | $5.395B | $6.714B | $8.168B | $9.711B | $11.28B | $12.78B | $14.13B | $15.23B | $15.99B | $159.9B |
DCF | $3.687B | $4.079B | $4.414B | $4.67B | $4.828B | $4.875B | $4.804B | $4.619B | $4.329B | $3.952B | $39.52B | |
Value | $83.78B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 39% | -120% | -31% | 40% | 39% | 6.1% | -170% | 32% | 45% | 39% |
ROA | 11% | -26% | -1.3% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3% | -31% | 17% | 25% | 16% |
ROE | 9.8% | -26% | -4.1% | 8.6% | 6% | 1.6% | -48% | 16% | 28% | 19% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.71%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -4.8%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +4.52%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +2.52%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +2.1%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +2.2%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2014 | 12-2015 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 12-2020 | 12-2021 | 12-2022 | TTM |
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Debt FCF | -4.87 | -180.84 | -36.41 | 15.33 | 42.72 | 30.34 | 11.85 | 2.71 | 1.40 | 1.91 |
Debt Equity | 0.34 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.61 | 0.51 | 0.40 | 0.37 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | -440% | - | - | - | 62% | -890% | - | - | -890% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.91.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is -5.95.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at -8.94.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 12-2015 | 12-2017 | 12-2019 | 12-2021 | Trend |
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Revenue | 55% | 52% | 34% | 42% | 6.1% |
Net Income | - | 55% | 160% | 100% | 18% |
Stockholders Equity | 33% | 23% | 1.7% | 18% | -6.7% |
FCF | - | 120% | 190% | 80% | 46% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +51.58%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +6.06%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +55.21%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +18.19%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +22.96%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is -6.66%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is +115.41%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +46.39%.