Kellanova

Consumer Staples
Packaged Foods
www.kellanova.com

Earnings Score
Moat Score
Safety Score

Market Cap $27.61B
PE 27
Debt $5.78B
Cash $569.00M
EV $32.82B
FCF $927.00M

Earnings

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Sales & Net Margins

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Earnings	$1.01B
EBIT	$1.48B
ROE	27%
ROA	9%
FCF	$927.00M
Equity	$3.76B
Growth Stability	77%
PE	27.47
PEG	-4.9
PB	7.35
P/FCF	29.78
P/S	2.58
Price/Cash	0.02
Debt/Equity	1.54
Debt/FCF	6.23
Net Margins	10%
Gross Margins	35%
Op. Margins	14%
Earnings CAGR	4%
Sales Growth YoY	-18%
Sales Growth QoQ	1%
Sales CAGR	1%
FCF CAGR	-0%
Equity CAGR	8%
Earnings Stability	0.1
Earnings Growth YoY	36%
Earnings Growth QoQ	7%
Earnings CAGR 5Y	-6%

Sales CAGR 5Y	-2%
FCF CAGR 5Y	1%
Equity CAGR 5Y	2%
Earnings CAGR 3Y	-9%
Sales CAGR 3Y	-9%
FCF CAGR 3Y	-8%
Equity CAGR 3Y	-10%
Market Cap	$27.61B
Revenue	$10.71B
Dividend Yield	3%
Payout Ratio	77%
Assets	$15.76B
Total Debt	$5.78B
Cash	$569.00M
Shares Outstanding	341.96M
EV	32.82B
Earnings Score	7%
Moat Score	92%
Safety Score	77%
Final Score	59%
Working Capital	-1.12B
Current Ratio	0.77
Gross Profit	$3.77B
Shares Growth 3y	0%
Equity Growth QoQ	10%
Equity Growth YoY	-12%

Assets & ROA

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Stockholders Equity & ROE

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Founded in 1906, Kellogg is a leading global manufacturer and marketer of cereal, cookies, crackers, and other packaged foods. Its offerings are manufactured in 21 countries and marketed in more than 180 countries. Its product mix includes well-known brands such as Special K, Frosted Flakes, Froot Loops, Rice Krispies, Pop-Tarts, Eggo, Kashi, and Morningstar Farms. The firm added the Pringles brand to its mix in 2012. Sales outside its home turf account for around 40% of Kellogg's consolidated sales base. The firm intends to split its global snacking arm from its North American cereal and plant-based alternative segments by the end of calendar 2023.

SEC Filings

Direct access to Kellanova (K) Annual Reports (10K) and Quarterly Reports (10Q) from the SEC website.

2024
- 10-Q Sep 28
- 10-Q Jun 29
- 10-Q Mar 30
2023
- 10-K Dec 30
- 10-Q Sep 30
- 10-Q Jul 01
- 10-Q Apr 01
2022
- 10-K Dec 31
- 10-Q Oct 01
- 10-Q Jul 02
- 10-Q Apr 02
- 10-K Jan 01

Sector Comparison

How does Kellanova compare to its competitors?

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Peter Lynch's Chart

This chart shows the current pricing of Kellanova compared to its past. The addition of the earnings trend line provides further insights into the company's earnings power.

CAGR 4%

Stability 10%

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Kellanova Discounted Cash Flow

Fully customizable DCF calculator online for Kellanova.

Years

Calculation mode

= $9.2B

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
fcf	$927M	$926M	$926M	$925M	$925M	$924M	$924M	$923M	$923M	$922M	$921M	$9.2B
DCF		$842M	$765M	$695M	$632M	$574M	$521M	$474M	$430M	$391M	$355M	$3.6B
Value	$9.2B

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

Years	01/2015	01/2016	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	01/2021	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Net Margins	4%	5%	5%	10%	10%	7%	9%	10%	6%	7%	10%
ROA	-	7%	9%	12%	10%	9%	10%	12%	9%	10%	9%
ROE	-	29%	36%	57%	42%	29%	34%	35%	22%	28%	27%

Good Net Margins (10.16%)

Net Margins are high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Safety and Stability

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

Years	01/2015	01/2016	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	01/2021	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	TTM
Debt over FCF	-	6.87	7.1	7.56	9.63	14.3	5.4	6.7	5.91	6.63	6.23
Debt over Equity	2.59	3.66	4.13	3.88	2.92	2.55	2.2	1.82	1.57	1.9	1.54
Growth Stability	-	-	-	100%	100%	87%	100%	100%	78%	77%	77%

Bad Debt/FCF ratio (6.23)

Net Margins are too low to guarantee profitability in case of higher costs or higher interest rates. Furthermore lower margins cause higher earnings’ volatility.

Bad Debt/Equity ratio (1.54)

The company is overleveraged and has a bad balance between equity and debt.

Bad Graham’s Stability (77%)

The company has a bad stability in its earnings, which is a sign of a bad competitive advantage.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Years	01/2015	01/2016	12/2016	12/2017	12/2018	12/2019	01/2021	12/2021	12/2022	12/2023	CAGR 5Y
Revenue YoY growth	-	-7%	-4%	-1%	5%	0%	1%	3%	8%	-14%	-2%
Earnings YoY growth	-	-3%	13%	83%	5%	-28%	30%	19%	-35%	-1%	-6%
Equity YoY growth	-	-25%	-10%	16%	42%	5%	10%	16%	4%	-23%	2%
FCF YoY growth	-	-6%	-1%	2%	-16%	-38%	151%	-22%	1%	-17%	1%