St Joe Co

JOE

Land Subdividers & Developers (No Cemeteries)

Mkt Cap

$3.231B

PE

41.60

Debt

$457.4M

Cash

$94.23M

EV

$3.594B

FCF

$105.4M

Market Cap

$3.231B

P/E Ratio

41.60

Debt

$457.4M

Cash

$94.23M

EV

$3.594B

FCF

$105.4M

Charts data: {"Earnings":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":406282000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-1971000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":15464000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":59236000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":31602000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":26661000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":45203000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":73749000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":70228000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":74052000}],"Sales":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":701873000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":103871000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":95744000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":98796000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":110276000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":127085000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":160555000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":266996000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":252321000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":389285000}],"Net Margins":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.5788540092010948},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.018975459945509334},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.16151403743315507},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.5995789303210657},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.28657187420653635},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.20978872408230712},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.2815421506648812},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.2762176212377713},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.27832800282180237},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.19022567013884428}],"Assets":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":1303135000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":984813000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":1027945000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":920993000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":870962000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":909233000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":1037324000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":1208151000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":1430839000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":1523530000}],"Stockholders Equity":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":979701000},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":673447000},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":686799000},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":592584000},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":533111000},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":529670000},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":568170000},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":626100000},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":651109000},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":698490000}],"ROE":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.41469999520261797},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":-0.0029267336553581796},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.022516049091510035},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.09996219945189205},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.059278461708724826},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.05033511431646119},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.07955893482584438},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.11779108768567322},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.10785905278532473},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.1060172658162608}],"ROA":[{"time":"2014-12-30","value":0.4070407133566361},{"time":"2015-12-30","value":0.01042431405759266},{"time":"2016-12-30","value":0.03395706968758056},{"time":"2017-12-30","value":0.058089475164306355},{"time":"2018-12-30","value":0.04903313807031765},{"time":"2019-12-30","value":0.05332736493286099},{"time":"2020-12-30","value":0.07073971102567761},{"time":"2021-12-30","value":0.09555924714708675},{"time":"2022-12-30","value":0.06612693671335489},{"time":"2023-12-30","value":0.06567707888915873}]}

The St. Joe Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development, asset management, and operating company in Northwest Florida. It operates through three segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial. The Residential segment plans and develops residential communities of various sizes for homebuilders or retail consumers. It primarily sells developed homesites, completed homes, parcels of entitled or undeveloped land or homesites, and a homesite residual on homebuilder, as well as offers title insurance and marketing services. The Hospitality segment owns and operates a private membership club, golf courses, beach clubs, retail outlets, marinas, and other entertainment assets. This segment also engages in the hotel, food and beverage, and gulf-front vacation rental operations, as well as provides management services. The Commercial segment engages in leasing of commercial property, multi-family, a senior living community, and other assets. This segment also plans, develops, entitles, manages, and sells commercial and rural land holdings for retail, office, hotel, senior living, multi-family, self-storage, and industrial uses; and grows and sells pulpwood, sawtimber, and other forest products. The St. Joe Company was incorporated in 1936 and is based in Panama City Beach, Florida.

Sector

10-Q
9/30/23
10-Q
6/30/23
10-Q
3/31/23
10-K
12/31/22
10-Q
9/30/22
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6/30/22
10-Q
3/31/22
10-K
12/31/21
10-Q
9/30/21
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6/30/21
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3/31/21
10-K
12/31/20
10-Q
9/30/20
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6/30/20
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3/31/20
10-K
12/31/19
10-Q
9/30/19
10-Q
6/30/19
10-Q
3/31/19
10-K
12/31/18
10-Q
9/30/18
10-Q
6/30/18
10-Q
3/31/18
10-K
12/31/17

DCF

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of St Joe Co

Calculate

Growth Years

Growth

Start

End

Discount

Start

End

Multiple

g\r	+10%	+11%	+12%	+13%	+14%
0%	10	9	8	8	7
+1%	11	10	9	8	8
+2%	13	11	10	9	8
+3%	14	13	11	10	9
+4%	17	14	12	11	10

Years	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	TV
FCF	$105.4M	$137M	$174.3M	$216.9M	$263.9M	$313.7M	$364.3M	$412.8M	$456.4M	$491.9M	$516.5M	$5.165B
DCF		$119.1M	$131.8M	$142.6M	$150.9M	$156M	$157.5M	$155.2M	$149.2M	$139.8M	$127.7M	$1.277B
Value	$2.706B

Chart P/E ratio

In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.

Earnings Growth 27%

Earnings Stability 59%

Competitiveness and MOAT

High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.

The Net Margin is high enough to offer a good protection on the profits in case of higher costs or higher interests. Furthermore higher margins reduce earnings’ volatility.

Over time the ROA has been increasing indicating a higher marginal ROA with respect to the calculated one, giving a good sign for continued growth.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Net Margin	-1.9%	16%	60%	29%	21%	28%	28%	28%	19%	19%
ROA	1%	3.4%	5.8%	4.9%	5.3%	7.1%	9.6%	6.6%	6.6%	6.8%
ROE	-0.29%	2.3%	10%	5.9%	5%	8%	12%	11%	11%	11%

What is the average Net Margin?

The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +25.38%.

What is the trend of Net Margin?

The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is -0.8%.

What is the average Return on Assets (ROA)?

The average ROA over the past 5 years is +6.67%.

What is the trend of Return on Assets (ROA)?

The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is +0.42%.

What is the average Return on Equity (ROE)?

The average ROE over the past 5 years is +8.68%.

What is the trend of Return on Equity (ROE)?

The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +1.27%.

Safety & Stabiliy

Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.

The company has high debt with respect to the cashflow it generates.

The Graham’s stability indicate a relevant drawdown, consider checking when it has occured and why.

Years	12-2015	12-2016	12-2017	12-2018	12-2019	12-2020	12-2021	12-2022	12-2023	TTM
Debt FCF	11.14	3478.31	3.54	-18.80	-1.13	-1.29	-2.56	-1.27	4.70	4.34
Debt Equity	0.08	0.08	0.09	0.13	0.18	0.28	0.36	0.60	0.66	0.65
MIN
Graham Stability	-	-	42%	100%	75%	100%	100%	100%	100%	42%

What is the Debt/FCF?

The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 4.34.

What is the trend of Debt/FCF?

The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 3.31.

What is the Graham’s Stability?

Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.42.

Growth

Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.

Earnings growth has not been increasing in the past years.

Years	12-2016	12-2018	12-2020	12-2022	Trend
Revenue	22%	29%	34%	54%	12%
Net Income	25%	19%	18%	5.4%	-24%
Stockholders Equity	0.24%	5.6%	7.1%	7.3%	3.8%
FCF	250%	-	-	-	50K%

What is the 5 year Revenue CAGR?

The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +28.69%.

What is the trend of Revenue growth?

The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +11.76%.

What is the 5 year Earnings CAGR?

The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +18.57%.

What is the trend of Earnings growth?

The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is -23.94%.

What is the 5 year Equity CAGR?

The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +5.55%.

What is the trend of Equity growth?

The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +3.76%.

What is the 5 year FCF CAGR?

The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -.

What is the trend of FCF growth?

The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is +49.64K%.