Pharmaceutical Preparations
Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, researches, develops, manufactures, and sells various products in the healthcare field worldwide. The company's Consumer Health segment provides skin health/beauty products under the AVEENO, CLEAN & CLEAR, DR. CI:LABO, NEUTROGENA, and OGX brands; baby care products under the JOHNSON'S and AVEENO Baby brands; oral care products under the LISTERINE brand; TYLENOL acetaminophen products; SUDAFED cold, flu, and allergy products; BENADRYL and ZYRTEC allergy products; MOTRIN IB ibuprofen products; NICORETTE smoking cessation products; and PEPCID acid reflux products. This segment also offers STAYFREE and CAREFREE sanitary pads; o.b. tampons; adhesive bandages under the BAND-AID brand; and first aid products under the NEOSPORIN brand. It serves general public, retail outlets, and distributors. The company's Pharmaceutical segment provides products for rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, and psoriasis; HIV/AIDS infectious diseases; mood disorders, neurodegenerative disorders, and schizophrenia; prostate cancer, hematologic malignancies, lung cancer, and bladder cancer; thrombosis, diabetes, and macular degeneration; and pulmonary arterial hypertension. This segment serves retailers, wholesalers, distributors, hospitals, and healthcare professionals directly for prescription use. Its MedTech segment offers electrophysiology products to treat cardiovascular diseases; neurovascular care products to treat hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke; orthopaedics products in support of hips, knees, trauma, spine, sports, and other; advanced and general surgery solutions that focus on breast aesthetics, ear, nose, and throat procedures; and contact lenses and ophthalmic technologies related to cataract and laser refractive surgery under the ACUVUE brand. This segment serves wholesalers, hospitals, and retailers. Johnson & Johnson was founded in 1886 and is based in New Brunswick, New Jersey.
Sector
ABBV
ABCL
ABT
ABUS
AGIO
AKRO
ALKS
ALNY
ALPN
AMLX
AMPH
AMRN
AMRX
ANAB
ANIP
APLS
ARDX
ARVN
ARWR
AUPH
AVDL
AVTE
AXSM
BBIO
BCYC
BGNE
BHVN
BMEA
BMRN
BMY
BPMC
CBAY
CDMO
CERE
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COGT
COLL
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CRNX
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FOLD
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IRWD
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LFCR
LGND
LLY
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NATR
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OGN
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PAHC
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PBH
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PFE
PHAT
PLRX
PNT
PRGO
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PTCT
PTGX
QURE
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation of Johnson & Johnson
Growth
%
%
Discount
%
%
Multiple
g\r | +10% | +11% | +12% | +13% | +14% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0% | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
+1% | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
+2% | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
+3% | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
+4% | 17 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
Years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | TV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF | $15.74B | $16.2B | $16.67B | $17.16B | $17.66B | $18.18B | $18.71B | $19.26B | $19.82B | $20.4B | $21B | $210B |
DCF | $14.08B | $12.61B | $11.28B | $10.1B | $9.037B | $8.088B | $7.239B | $6.479B | $5.799B | $5.19B | $51.9B | |
Value | $141.8B |
In the chart Earnings are multiplied by this value.
High margins render the company resilient under dire circumstances, hence able to drive competitors out or acquire them. ROE and ROA measure the average flow generated by each invested dollar. Their marginal value is a forecast of future growth, and it is considered by Buffett and Munger the most important single indicator.
Years | 12-2014 | 01-2016 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 01-2021 | 01-2022 | 12-2022 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net Margin | 22% | 22% | 23% | 1.7% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 22% | 19% | 40% |
ROA | 16% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 9.5% | 13% | 12% | 8.7% |
ROE | 23% | 22% | 23% | 2.2% | 26% | 25% | 23% | 28% | 23% | 49% |
The average Net Margin over the past 5 years is +16.31%.
The trend of Net Margin over the past 5 years is +2.74%.
The average ROA over the past 5 years is +11.52%.
The trend of ROA over the past 5 years is -0.07%.
The average ROE over the past 5 years is +21.33%.
The trend of ROE over the past 5 years is +3.19%.
Being debt the number one cause of investment losses and company death, the ratio Debt/FCF is of utmost importance to guarantee safety. On the other hand the Graham’s stability measures the drawdown of earnings, hence indicating the reliability of the flow generated by the company.
Years | 12-2014 | 01-2016 | 12-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2018 | 12-2019 | 01-2021 | 01-2022 | 12-2022 | TTM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt FCF | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 1.39 | 1.84 | 1.82 | 2.40 | 1.90 |
Debt Equity | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.59 | 0.49 | 0.54 | 0.42 |
MIN | ||||||||||
Graham Stability | - | - | 100% | 8.1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 8.1% |
The Debt/FCF trailing twelve month is 1.90.
The trend of Debt/FCF over the past 5 years is 0.09.
Graham’s Stability measure stands at 0.08.
Growth can be dangerous when forecasting, simply projecting the current growth is in general wrong. A company passes through multiple phases, from being young and unprofitable, to the first periods of profitability and high growth, until it arrives at a period of regime with limited growth. Identifying in which phase the company is in may help forecasting.
Years | 01-2016 | 12-2017 | 12-2019 | 01-2022 | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
Net Income | 2.2% | 69% | 5.9% | -14% | 1.4% |
Stockholders Equity | 1.1% | 5% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
FCF | 1.2% | -0.68% | -4.8% | -13% | -1.8% |
The Revenue CAGR over the past 5 years is +4.43%.
The trend of Revenue growth rate over the past 5 years is +0.6%.
The Earnings CAGR over the past 5 years is +69.04%.
The trend of Earnings growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.42%.
The Equity CAGR over the past 5 years is +5.01%.
The trend of Equity growth rate over the past 5 years is +1.87%.
The FCF CAGR over the past 5 years is -0.68%.
The trend of FCF growth rate over the past 5 years is -1.8%.